NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 6 (2023 Fantasy Football)

It was a wild Week 5, but the football itself pales in comparison to the aftermath. Fantasy managers everywhere are waking up to discover that Justin Jefferson and rookie sensation De’Von Achane are expected to miss multiple weeks, and the waiver madness will begin.

Fortunately for us #DFS players, we can use that information to our advantage in finding the top values on DraftKings. Let’s see what’s out there, and be sure to follow me on Twitter @jac3600 for more fantasy football talk!

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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 6

QUARTERBACK

Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) ($6300) @ SEA

Even without Tee Higgins, we finally saw the Cincinnati offense click on Sunday as they put up 34 points against a soft Arizona defense. Joe Burrow’s price only rose by $100 after he posted 27.38 DraftKings (DK) points and finished the week as the QB8. Seattle is better defensively than Arizona but still ranks in the bottom 10 in pressure rate (outside of the Daniel Jones game, which vaulted them to second) and has allowed the ninth most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing QBs. Even if Burrow doesn’t get Higgins back, he’s still too cheap.

Gardner Minshew (QB – IND) ($5000) @ JAC

With Anthony Richardson also slated to miss multiple games, Gardner Minshew will step in as the Colts’ starter for the time being. He’s not a world-beater, but he’s very capable of putting up points and is priced as a backup at $5000. Jacksonville is middle-of-the-road in the pressure category, but they’ve allowed the fifth most FPPG to opposing QBs, including 28.8 to Josh Allen last week.

RUNNING BACK

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) ($6400) vs CAR

It’s hard to exploit a price tag on the rise (Mostert was $6200 last week), but the Achane injury vaults Mostert’s price tag from “fair” to “underpriced”. The Dolphins have proven to be beyond explosive, and Mostert currently sits as fantasy’s RB2 overall (behind only Christian McCaffrey). We saw what he was capable of at the beginning of the season without Achane, and the matchup is arguably even better than it was against the Giants. Carolina has already allowed 5.1 yards per carry (YPC), nine rushing TDs, and the second-most FPPG to opposing RBs through the first five weeks. I’d happily pay $1000 more for Mostert.

Emari Demercado (RB – ARI) ($4900) @ LAR

For all the Jahmyr Gibbs bashing I did this preseason, I find it amusing that I’m touting his backup at TCU this week. However, it looks like James Conner is set to miss some time after the Cardinals claimed Tony Jones off waivers yesterday. Emari Demercado filled in quite nicely against the Bengals on Sunday, averaging 4.5 YPC, scoring a TD, and logging three targets (and he had four the previous week). The Rams are a pass-funnel defense, but Demercado’s price tag opens up so much for the rest of your lineup.

WIDE RECEIVER

Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) ($5400) vs IND

The fact that Christian Kirk’s price tag is dropping is flat-out weird. Since his week one dud, Kirk is a borderline WR1 with 29 catches on 40 targets for 17 DK points per game (PPG). Indianapolis continues to give up monster games to opposing WRs (DeAndre Hopkins being the latest) and now has allowed the eighth most FPPG to the position.

Jordan Addison/KJ Osborn (WR – MIN) ($5700/$4400)

The big news here is Justin Jefferson, who left the game early and is now on injured reserve (IR). Addison and Osborn both received nine targets in Sunday’s game, and there’s no reason to think that kind of usage won’t continue. Chicago is dead last in sacks despite being third in pressure rate, so Kirk Cousins should be throwing from a clean pocket. Osborn already has data where he sees a 5.5% target share increase sans Jefferson. You can play both of these in cash without Cousins and stack both with him in guaranteed prize pool (GPP).

TIGHT END

Kyle Pitts/Jonnu Smith (TE – ATL) ($3500/$3400)

OK, so I left Kyle Pitts for dead, and he came on with 11 targets, so maybe there’s still hope there. The silver lining is that I was still right on Jonnu Smith, who logged his fourth straight game of six targets or more. Washington is sixth in pressure rate, which benefits TEs for the quick hits on offense.