NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 5 (2023 Fantasy Football)

We’ve had London contests, double Monday-nighters, and even a Toy Story game through the first four weeks of the season. Now Week 5 is upon us, and it’s time to start the dreaded stretch of byes. Fortunately for us DFS players, they’re not an issue, so let’s take our early look at the slate and see what kind of pricing mistakes our friends at DraftKings have made. Remember, I’m always available on Twitter to answer your questions @jac3600.

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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 5

QUARTERBACK

Joe Burrow (QB – CIN), ($6200) @ ARI

Joe Burrow has been (there’s no other word for it) BAD this year. We can definitely blame a good deal on his injury, but the fact remains that the Bengals have still allowed him to throw the ball 120 times in the last three games. This week they take on Arizona in a prime get-right spot, and also a game the Bengals HAVE to win. The Cardinals rank 30th in overall defensive efficiency and have allowed the sixth most FPPG to opposing QBs. It looks like Tee Higgins will probably miss this one, but this is still as low as we’ll see Burrow’s price tag.

C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU), ($6000) @ ATL

DraftKings has finally started to recognize C.J. Stroud’s upside and are pricing him up as a result, but $6000 is still not enough. Stroud has thrown the ball 155 times through four weeks, has a 6:0 TD: INT ratio, and a 100.6 QBR en route to being the overall QB10 in fantasy. He seems more than NFL-ready and has three very good WRs at his disposal. ATL’s ball control ways don’t invite the most upside for opposing QBs, but Stroud is a rock-solid floor play at his price tag.

RUNNING BACK

Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC), ($5700) @ MIN

We get a bit of a gift with Isiah Pacheco because DraftKings didn’t have an opportunity to price him up after the Chiefs played on Sunday night. Pacheco has dominated the rushing share for the Chiefs and has parlayed his touches into 5.2 YPC. The matchup on paper against MIN is not great (tenth in FPPG allowed to RBs), but they’re bottom five in overall defensive efficiency and the Chiefs opened the week as six-point road favorites.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ), ($5400) @ DEN

Breece Hall’s touch count is alarming for cash, but he has massive GPP upside with his snap share rising each week and the prime matchup against Denver. These are the same Broncos that have been eviscerated on the ground for by far the most FPPG to RBs, which includes 390 all-purpose yards and eight TDs to the Miami crew. Breece is averaging 6.8 yards per touch, which is second in the NFL, and the Jets are in must-win mode. Dalvin Cook looks like dust, and Michael Carter is a mere passing back.

WIDE RECEIVER

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN), ($4500) @ ARI

Efficiency is a huge issue for Boyd, who has failed to log a double-digit yardage catch in two of four weeks now. However, he continues to be a constant presence in the Cincinnati passing game, logging target counts of eight, nine, and seven in the last three games. Tee Higgins looks iffy at best for this contest, making it logical that Boyd’s target share goes UP this week, and this is a get-right spot for the entire Bengals’ offense against Arizona.

Rashee Rice (WR – KC), ($3600) @ MIN

Trusting a Kansas City wide receiver is like “NFL Russian Roulette”, but there are signs that indicate Rashee Rice is usable in all formats. First off, the matchup. Minnesota has hemorrhaged production to opposing passing games this year, allowing both the highest YPA and the most FPPG to WRs. Rice is also second on the Chiefs in targets (behind only Travis Kelce) and is seventh in the NFL in target separation. He’s still living in that mid-3k range, which gives him almost all upside and no downside.

TIGHT END

Jonnu Smith (TE – ATL), ($2900) vs HOU

Remember Kyle Pitts? Yeah, me neither. As unbelievable as it sounds, Jonnu Smith is now the TE to roster in Atlanta, as his style of play fits the Falcons far better than Pitts’ finesse does. Jonnu has 20 targets over the last three weeks, yet is still priced as almost a nonfactor in the Atlanta passing game. After being left for dead by New England (and partially by Atlanta, too), Smith has rebounded and is now sixth among TEs in receiving yards. Take this pricing gift and run with it.