Sadly, an injury cloud hangs over the Monday Night Football DFS showdown slate. The 49ers have a few critical injuries that will impact decisions for building rosters, and gamers must monitor inactives and be prepared to make lineup changes. Regardless, San Francisco is a substantial favorite and the more desirable source of players than the Justin Jefferson-less Vikings.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: SF -7.0
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey has an oblique injury that threatens his availability this week, but the reports are that he will attempt to play. CMC is third in the NFL in rushing yards per game (92.2) and tied for second in rushing touchdowns (seven) this season. Moreover, he's averaging 3.8 receptions per game and 29.5 receiving yards per game with two touchdown receptions. So, CMC is an elite play if he suits up, even if the 49ers indicate they plan to reduce his workload to avoid aggravating his injury.
If CMC is surprisingly ruled out, the one-two punch of Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason will work in tandem to fill the void. It's unclear how the work will be divvied up, but either or both are intriguing options on showdown rosters in San Francisco's run-friendly offense.
According to RotoViz's pace app, the 49ers have run on 46% of their 224 plays in a neutral game script this year. Their rate for rushing has surged to 58% when leading by at least six points this season. Mitchell has home-run speed, but Mason is a bigger, more physical runner. The former needs only one well-blocked run to provide value, and the latter has the physicality to profile as the better short-yardage and goal-line option. But, again, they can be used individually or together on showdown rosters since the game script can allow them to each tote the rock enough to help DFS teams. Taking a shot on either if CMC plays is also viable since the stud running back's workload will presumably be limited.
Brandon Aiyuk is arguably the most exciting selection on the 49ers since CMC is at less than 100%. Aiyuk is first on the 49ers in targets (37), receptions per game (5.0) and receiving yards per game (90.8). He's also hauled in two touchdowns and won't have to contend with Deebo Samuel for targets since his running mate is out with a shoulder injury.
Aiyuk should barbecue a secondary that's struggled mightily against wide receivers. According to The 33rd Team, the Vikings have allowed the second-most DraftKings (24.0) and the second-most FanDuel (19.1) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. They've also ceded the 13th-most DK (21.3) and the 14th-most FD (15.5) points per game to slot wideouts. Kyle Shanahan has wisely utilized Aiyuk all over the formation. So, the stud wideout will have opportunities to get the better of Minnesota's secondary on the perimeter and in the slot.
Brock Purdy is Aiyuk's triggerman, and the second-year quarterback should get back on track this week. Putting aside last week's brutal matchup and lousy weather, Purdy has been otherwise nearly flawless in 2023. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the sophomore quarterback is 13th in passing yards per game (232.7), second in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (8.57 ANY/A) and eighth in touchdown passes (10).
The matchup isn't imposing for Purdy this week. The Vikings are 15th in pressure rate (23.6%) and have allowed the 16th-most passing yards per game (218.8) and nine touchdown passes. It's a rebound opportunity for Purdy.
George Kittle is averaging only 3.0 receptions per game and 36.0 receiving yards per game with three touchdown receptions this year. The talented tight end has produced 30 receiving yards or fewer in four of six contests. However, Kittle had seven receptions for 90 receiving yards in Week 3, when Aiyuk was out. He also torched the Cowboys for three receptions, 67 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns in Week 5.
Kittle has the talent to explode any week. Samuel's absence should open up a few more opportunities in the passing game for Kittle. The do-it-all tight end is volatile, but his upside is worth chasing on this slate.
Ray-Ray McCloud was used in some of Samuel's unique roles in relief of him last week. The veteran wideout and returner can catch passes and carry the ball on jet sweeps and trick plays. Frankly, a few touches are all he needs to have value at DK on this slate.
Vikings Analysis: There's not much to get excited about with the Vikings. They mustered 19 points against Chicago's dreadful defense in their only contest without Jefferson this year. The 49ers are a more fearsome unit.
The underdog Vikings will almost certainly be in a negative game script and must take to the air to keep up. So, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison and Brandon Powell are the most attractive picks from the Vikings.
Hockenson had at least eight targets in all but one game this year. He's averaging 6.0 receptions per game and 50.7 receiving yards per game with two touchdown receptions. Hockenson had six receptions and 50 scoreless yards on eight targets last week.
Addison didn't explode in a heightened role without Jefferson last week. Instead, his three receptions and 28 yards on five targets were saved by a touchdown. Still, the rookie wide receiver has scored a touchdown in four games and cleared 50 receiving yards four times this season.
In addition, the 49ers aren't a nightmare matchup. They've allowed the 16th-most DK (14.8) and the 18th-most FD (11.1) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. San Francisco has also allowed the 12th-most DK (21.4) and the 16th-most FD (15.4) points per game to slot wideouts.
From a matchup perspective, Powell is arguably the best pick from the Vikings, saying nothing of how cheap he is. Powell ran the fourth-most routes (25) for the Vikings in Week 6, running only eight fewer than K.J. Osborn (33) and Addison (33). He had three receptions for 20 yards as Minnesota's No. 3 wide receiver. Moreover, per The 33rd Team, Powell was in the slot 62.5% of the time last week, giving him access to the easier matchup against San Francisco's secondary.
Final Thoughts: CMC, Aiyuk and Purdy are the best Captain/MVP spot options. 49ers onslaught lineups are easily my favorite lineup construction for this showdown slate. However, using Powell and one of Addison or Hockenson is a reasonable decision, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
