The Packers are visiting Sin City to close Week 5 against the Raiders. The hosts are slight favorites. Las Vegas has two studs to one for Green Bay, but the latter has more middle-tier options. Still, both teams are well-represented with intriguing players.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: LV -2.0
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Packers Analysis: It's a challenge to figure out how the Packers want to play in a neutral game script since they've navigated injuries this year. Nevertheless, per RotoViz's pace app, Green Bay passed on 55% of their 115 plays in a neutral game script this season. The Packers were in a hole quickly last week with a pair of returning offensive weapons and passed on 100% of their six plays in a neutral game script. Might that have been a sign they want to air it out more often now? Maybe.
Still, the Raiders are vulnerable on the ground, and teams have rushed on 47% of their 192 plays in a neutral game script against Las Vegas. It's a smash spot for Aaron Jones if he plays. According to The 33rd Team, the Raiders have yielded 110.5 rushing yards per game, two rushing touchdowns, 5.5 receptions per game and 31.0 receiving yards per game to running backs.
Jordan Love and the passing attack can thrive, too. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Raiders have the second-lowest pressure rate (16.9%) this year. They've allowed a modest 202.8 passing yards per game. Yet, the Raiders have also yielded eight touchdowns and produced only one interception.
The Love era has gotten off to an up-and-down start, but this is a get-right spot. The inexperienced fourth-year pro has struggled with accuracy, evidenced by his 56.1% completion percentage. He's also averaged 225.3 passing yards per game and tossed eight touchdowns. Love adds value on the ground, too, rushing for 18.0 yards per game and two touchdowns this season. He's not a flawless player, but Love is a DFS-friendly pick in a tasty matchup.
The matchup is challenging for Green Bay's primary perimeter wideouts, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. According to The 33rd Team, Las Vegas has allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings (10.5) and FanDuel (8.4) points per game to perimeter wideouts this year. As a result, I suggest fading Doubs. However, Watson's elite athleticism and hyper-efficiency in his young career are worth rolling the dice on since he's off the injury report and seemingly back to complete health.
Jayden Reed has a markedly easier assignment from the slot. The Raiders have permitted the 14th-most DK (21.4) and the 12th-most FD (17.7) points per game to slot wide receivers in 2023. The rookie wide receiver can build on a rock-solid start, averaging 3.0 receptions per game and 50.8 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns through four weeks.
Fortunately, Luke Musgrave cleared the NFL's concussion policy in time for a cushy matchup. The Raiders have ceded 5.0 receptions per game, 39.8 receiving yards per game, and two touchdowns to tight ends this year. The rookie tight end, like Reed, is off to a rock-solid start, averaging 3.0 receptions per game and 31.3 receiving yards per game, including leaving the Week 4 contest with a concussion.
Most importantly, Musgrave is a clear-cut starter. First, Musgrave had a 75% snap share in Week 1, 88% in Week 2 and 86% in Week 3. Second, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Musgrave ran 89 routes in the first three games, Josiah Deguara ran just 13 and Tucker Kraft ran eight. Thus, Musgrave shouldn't have to cede many snaps to his backups in this superb matchup.
Raiders Analysis: Jimmy Garoppolo is cleared from the NFL's concussion protocol, and the Raiders passed on 58% of their 110 plays in a neutral game script when he was healthy before last week's contest. However, it could and should be the Josh Jacobs show in this game.
Green Bay's opponents have run on 49% of their 140 plays in a neutral game script, and the Packers have struggled to contain running backs. Green Bay has coughed up 115.3 rushing yards per game, four rushing touchdowns, 6.5 receptions per game and 45.0 receiving yards per game to running backs in 2023.
Jacobs was sluggish out of the gate after holding out throughout nearly the entire offseason. Regardless, he's Las Vegas's workhorse, handling 88.6% of the club's backfield rushing attempts. Jacobs has rushed at least 17 times in three contests this year and hauled in multiple receptions in all four games. His ceiling is arguably the highest on this slate.
Davante Adams was able to log a limited practice session on Saturday, providing encouragement for his game status. He has a brutal matchup this week, but Adams is a matchup-proof monster. Furthermore, Las Vegas's passing game is funneled through Adams and Jakobi Meyers.
In Week 1 and Week 3 when Jimmy G, Adams and Meyers were healthy, Adams had 19 receptions, 238 receiving yards and two touchdown receptions. Meanwhile, Meyers had 16 receptions, 166 receiving yards and two touchdown receptions.
Circling back to the matchup, the Packers have allowed the fourth-fewest DK (10.1) and FD (8.3) points per game to perimeter wideouts, and Adams and Meyers have played most of their snaps aligned wide.
So, could Hunter Renfrow rise from the dead in a softer matchup? The Packers are midpack in DK and FD points allowed to slot wideouts, and Renfrow aligned for all 39 of his passing snaps in Week 1 and Week 3 in the slot. I'm skeptical of Renfrow having a big role. Still, he could do enough at his tiny salary to provide value at DK's point-per-reception (PPR) platform.
Final Thoughts: Jacobs is my favorite Captain/MVP, followed by Jones as my second favorite. Both are comfortably ahead of the other options, but Adams and Watson are also intriguing. Garoppolo was listed on the table but largely ignored in the analysis because I only suggest using him on teams that feature Adams as the Captain/MVP.
Balanced lineups are my favorite on this slate. Yet, I'll also mix in unbalanced lineups that tilt toward each team. I might also fire a bullet on an onslaught lineup with Jacobs as the Captain/MVP and the Packers in all of the flex spots. Finally, using both kickers on DK showdown lineups is viable.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
