The Seahawks and the Giants will finish off Week 4 in a tightly projected potential shootout. The game’s spread is small, and the total is slightly under 50. Interestingly, Seattle’s offense is top-heavy, and New York’s has a wider variety of contributors. Let’s look at who gamers should be using from each club.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
Spread: SEA -1.5
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Seahawks Analysis: Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron are letting Geno Smith cook again this year. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Seahawks have passed on 60% of their 157 plays in a neutral game script in 2023.
The pass-heavy approach is ideal for the passing-game outlook for Smith and his pass-catchers. Additionally, the Giants aren't an imposing matchup for the passing attack. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Giants are tied for the third-lowest pressure rate (16.7%) this year. However, the G-Men have the second-highest blitz rate (53.1%). The combination is problematic for their pass defense and ideal for Smith's potential to carve them up.
The veteran signal-caller is validating his breakout last year, too. He's completing 68.9% of his passes, averaging 245.3 passing yards per game and has four touchdown passes and only one interception through three contests. Thus, Smith is an outstanding pick.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the top options in the passing game when Smith chucks the pigskin. The duo is dominating the opportunities in Seattle's pass-catching corps. Metcalf has a 19.8% target share, and Lockett has a 21.9% target share this season. The former has more air yards (262) than the latter (211), though.
Surprisingly, the smaller Lockett has two targets for two touchdowns inside the 10-yard line this year versus one for one for Metcalf in 2023. However, Metcalf had 10 targets and three touchdowns compared to four and two for Lockett inside the 10-yard line in 2022. So, Metcalf could emerge as Smith's favorite target near the end zone again sooner rather than later. Regardless, both are stellar selections.
Noah Fant popped up on the injury report on Saturday. So he could end up inactive. Still, Fant is a useful player on this slate if he can suit up. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Fant is fourth on the Seahawks in routes (52), tied for fourth in receptions (eight) and third in receiving yards (97) this year.
Fant isn't the only viable tight end on the Seahawks because they routinely use multiple tight ends. According to the nfelo app, Seattle uses 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) on only 44% of their plays on first down this season. Therefore, they use multiple tight ends regularly.
As a result, Colby Parkinson is intriguing, especially if Will Dissly misses another game. The fourth-year pro has six receptions for 87 yards this year, eclipsing 35 receiving yards in the previous two weeks. Additionally, the matchup is excellent for Seattle's tight ends. The Giants have permitted the third-most receiving yards per game (63.0) and 5.7 receptions per game to tight ends in 2023.
Seattle's running game mostly goes through Kenneth Walker. The second-year running back has a 58% snap share this year and had a 51% snap share last week when Zach Charbonnet hit a season-high 43% snap share. Walker has a 69.1% backfield rush share this year, and he's run 41 routes compared to 33 for Charbonnet and 10 for DeeJay Dallas. Walker's role is fantasy-friendly.
He's averaging 68.0 rushing yards per game, 2.7 receptions per game and 24.3 receiving yards per game with four rushing touchdowns in his sophomore campaign. Walker should add to his season totals in a good matchup tonight.
According to The 33rd Team, Big Blue has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (117.7) and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (four) to running backs this season. Walker doesn't consistently grind out yards but has big-play potential. Finally, he might have a positive game script with the Seahawks favored.
Giants Analysis: The Giants have a 51% pass rate in neutral game scripts this year. However, they've run only 53 plays in a neutral game script, and Saquon Barkley is doubtful.
Therefore, take their passing tendencies with a grain of salt. The matchup should encourage them to throw more often, too. Seattle's allowed the second-most passing yards per game (328.0) this season, coughing up five touchdown passes and recording only one interception. They're also not generating pressure, tying for the third-lowest pressure rate (16.7%) in 2023.
Daniel Jones had his best game of the year against the only defense he's faced with a below-average pressure percentage, erupting for 321 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and one interception against the Cardinals in Week 2. Jones is also a dual-threat quarterback, rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown this year. He's the highest-ceiling and the most appealing pick from the Giants.
Darren Waller is his top option in the passing game, pacing the G-Men in targets (20), receptions (12) and receiving yards (132). The matchup is decent for Waller. Seattle has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game (55.7) and 4.0 receptions per game to tight ends in 2023.
New York uses many wideouts. In Week 3, five wide receivers played at least 10 passing snaps. Darius Slayton is the most consistently used wideout, leading the team in routes (30) in Week 3 and for the entire year (98 routes). The field-stretching wide receiver is second on the team in receiving yards (109) and in no danger of getting phased out of the offense. So, he's a safe selection.
Wan'Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt are rotational players. Yet, they're young and could overtake unproductive teammates Parris Campbell and Isaiah Hodgins in the pecking order. Robinson played all 10 of his passing snaps aligned in the slot in his season debut last week and was targeted five times, securing four receptions for 21 scoreless yards.
The second-year wide receiver has been targeted on an eye-catching 27.1% of his routes in his career. Moreover, he has a cupcake matchup from the slot. According to The 33rd Team, Seattle has allowed the most DraftKings points per game (20.3) and the most FanDuel points per game (28.4) to slot wide receivers this season.
Hyatt has run 42 routes this season, running 17 in Week 1, 12 in Week 2 and 13 in Week 3. The speedy rookie has only two receptions on three targets for 89 yards. Hyatt is versatile and a home-run threat, aligning in the slot for 30.4% of his passing snaps and wide for 69.6% of them and sporting a 30.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT).
Hyatt can exploit the previously noted soft matchup from the slot. But Hyatt and Slayton can also score points aligned wide. The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most DK points per game (20.3) and the sixth-most FD points per game (16.0) to perimeter wideouts this season.
Final Thoughts: Many players have compelling cases for the Captain/MVP spot. I consider Walker, Smith, Jones, Metcalf and Lockett the best options. Finally, balanced lineups are my favorite construction for this showdown slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
