The Bills have headed across the pond to serve as the “home” team against the Jaguars. Jacksonville won in London last week and stick around for a more challenging matchup against the white-hot Bills. The underdog Jaguars have a few intriguing pieces on this showdown slate. However, the favored Bills are more well-represented. Let’s look at the suggested player selections, top Captain/MVP choices and the best lineup constructions.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -5.5
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Jaguars Analysis: The Jaguars haven't continued on a linear ascension after last year's breakout. Unfortunately, they have a challenging matchup to recapture their late 2022 form this week.
Still, Trevor Lawrence is playing at a high level, even if his traditional stats leave much to be desired. Among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks in 2023, Lawrence is Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) second-ranked passer, tied for fifth in Big-Time Throw Percentage (6.0 BTT%) and tied for 12th in Adjusted Completion Percentage (77.2%).
Nevertheless, Jacksonville's not letting him fling the pigskin at a high rate. Instead, per RotoViz's pace app, Jacksonville has passed on just 52% of their 140 plays in a neutral game script in 2023. They might ramp that up this week, though. Buffalo's opponents have passed on 61% of their 99 plays in a neutral game script this year. Presumably, Buffalo's opponents have recognized the need to air it out to keep up with their explosive offense. Maybe the Jaguars will do the same.
Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones (if he's healthy enough to play) have the best matchup among Jacksonville's wide receivers. Per PFF, Ridley played 84.0% of his routes aligned on the perimeter in the first two games when Jacksonville's wideouts were healthy, and Jones was wide on 57.4% of his passing snaps.
According to The 33rd Team, Buffalo has allowed the 14th-most DraftKings (16.1) and the 14th-most FanDuel (13.1) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Comparatively, they've held slot wideouts to the fourth-fewest DK (11.8) and FD (9.3) points per game, which is bad news for Christian Kirk.
Ridley hasn't been a world-beater this season, but he did lead the Jaguars in receiving yards (133) and had one touchdown through the first two games of the year. Jones had 13 targets in those contests but parlayed them into just five receptions for 55 receiving yards and a touchdown. Circling back to the matchup, they could have easier sledding since Tre'Davious White is out for the year after suffering an Achilles injury last week.
Travis Etienne is also a stellar pick from the Jaguars. He's the team's lead back, owning a 77% snap share, 79.3% backfield rush share and running 108 routes versus 32 for Jacksonville's other running backs. Etienne hasn't exploded in his fantasy-friendly role, but he's produced 89 scrimmage yards per game, 3.5 receptions per game and one touchdown.
He could put his best foot forward against the Bills this week. Buffalo has allowed the highest yards per carry (6.0), 5.5 receptions per game (5.5), 49.8 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns (both rushing) to running backs in 2023. Breece Hall's and De'Von Achane's speed gave the Bills trouble, and Etienne has speed in spades.
Bills Analysis: Buffalo's offense is a well-oiled, pass-heavy machine. This season, they've passed on 62% of their 139 plays in a neutral game script. The Jaguars are unlikely to dissuade them from their passing tendencies since Jacksonville's opponents have passed on 63% of their 158 plays in a neutral game script this year.
Josh Allen got off to a brutal start in Week 1. Regardless, he's PFF's fifth-ranked passer, tied for second in Big-Time-Throw Percentage (6.5 BTT%) and first in Adjusted Completion Percentage (82.7%). Additionally, the Bills are PFF's highest-ranked pass-blocking team, making the dual-threat quarterback's job easier. Allen has a massive ceiling and a high floor.
Stefon Diggs is the alpha in the pass-catching hierarchy, leading the Bills in target share (29.5%), air yards (371), receptions (31), receiving yards (399) and touchdown receptions (four).
Gabe Davis is Buffalo's No. 2 wideout but big-play dependent. He has only 12 receptions, but they're for 220 yards (18.3 yards per reception) and three touchdowns. Furthermore, Davis has a stellar 298 air yards.
Trent Sherfield is a risky option as an ancillary player in the offense. Yet, his 12 routes in Week 4 were the third-most among Buffalo's wide receivers, slightly besting Deonte Harty (10), with Khalil Shakir significantly lagging (two routes).
The matchup is slightly above average for Diggs, Davis and Sherfield. Jacksonville has allowed the 13th-most DK (17.2) and the 12th-most FD (13.5) points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Dalton Kincaid is arguably Buffalo's second-best passing-game option behind only Diggs. The rookie tight end is third on the Bills in routes (107) and he ran nine more than Dawson Knox (23 versus 14) in Week 4.
The rookie pass-catching tight end can cook against Jacksonville's defense. According to The 33rd Team, the Jags have allowed the most DK (11.2) and the most FD (9.3) points per game to slot tight ends this year.
James Cook is an intriguing choice as Buffalo's lead running back and a critical member of the passing attack. The second-year pro has a 56% snap share, 60.9% backfield rush share and 76 routes, pacing the backfield in each category.
The dynamic running back is averaging 102.8 scrimmage yards per game and 2.8 receptions per game this season. Cook also scored his first rushing touchdown last week, punching one in near the goal line.
However, Latavius Murray has backfield highs for rushes (four), rushing touchdowns (two) and targets (one) inside the five-yard line. The veteran running back has also run 44 routes this year.
The matchup isn't too shabby for Cook and Murray, either. The Jaguars have allowed 104.8 scrimmage yards per game, 6.0 receptions per game and one touchdown (rushing) to running backs. Although, they've held running backs to an underwhelming 3.9 yards per carry.
Cook is the more desirable and higher-ceiling option in Buffalo's backfield, but there could be enough meat on the bone for Murray to provide value, too. When the Bills have led by at least six points this year, they've rushed on 50% of those 158 plays.
A positive game script would also be excellent for Buffalo's defense, and the Bills have a juggernaut defense this year. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bills are first in turnovers forced (11), first in pressure rate (32.1%) and tied for first in sacks (16).
Final Thoughts: Allen is the runaway top option for the Captain/MVP spot. However, Diggs is also an excellent pick, and Davis has the home-run potential to pan out in that position.
I prefer unbalanced lineups tilting toward the Bills on this slate. Yet I'll also mix some balanced lineups in at DK.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
