Gamers who love massive NFL DFS slates are in for a treat in Week 8. There’s no game abroad. The NFL isn’t having a Monday Night Football doubleheader. They haven’t started playing island games on Saturday yet. Additionally, no one is on a bye this week. So, there are 13 games on this week’s NFL DFS main slate, providing gamers with a vast pool of players the DFS Digest will reduce to a more manageable number of selections.
Week 8 Matchups
Game: Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers
Spread: HOU -3.0
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Texans Analysis: C.J. Stroud has hit the ground running in his rookie season and put his best foot forward when armed with his two most explosive playmaking wide receivers. In his last three games with them both healthy, the Texans averaged 28.7 points per game, and Stroud passed for 278.3 yards per game, with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Now, behind a healthy offensive line he wasn't awarded through most of his starts before the bye, the best might still be to come for Stroud.
Sadly, Tank Dell was out in Week 6 with a concussion. In Week 3 through Week 5, when he was healthy, the rookie wideout and Nico Collins were a dynamic duo. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Collins ran 80 routes and had 16 targets, 12 receptions (4.0 per game), 241 receiving yards (80.3 per game), an 8.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 3.01 Y/RR and two touchdowns in those games.
In that same sample, Dell ran 67 routes and had 14 targets, nine receptions (3.0 per game), 218 receiving yards (72.7 per game), a 16.0-yard aDOT, 3.25 Y/RR and one touchdown, despite getting knocked out of the Week 6 contest early with a concussion.
Both players can eat against a secondary struggling with perimeter wide receivers. According to The 33rd Team, the Panthers have allowed the 10th-most DraftKings (19.3) and the fifth-most FanDuel (17.0) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 4. Houston moves their wide receivers around the formation, giving Collins and Dell chances to run routes from the outside against Carolina's susceptible secondary.
According to RotoViz's pace app, the Texans ran on 51% of their 154 plays in a neutral game script since Week 3. Interestingly, Devin Singletary was the most utilized and effective running back for the Texans in their final game before their bye. Singletary played 34 snaps and Dameon Pierce played 21. It was the only game Motor played more snaps than Pierce, but the veteran runner also outproduced the second-year running back, with 58 rushing yards on 12 attempts versus 34 on 13.
The Texans could revert to Pierce after the bye. Yet, Singletary's salary and potential to be the lead running back against Carolina's pathetic run defense is alluring. Since Week 4, running backs have torched the Panthers for 154.0 rushing yards per game, 6.0 yards per carry, five rushing touchdowns, 4.0 receptions per game, 23.3 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception.
Panthers Analysis: Like the Texans, the Panthers are returning from their bye. Carolina made one notable change during their bye, transferring play-calling duties from Frank Reich to their offensive coordinator, Thomas Brown.
What will change with Brown's play-calling? Maybe he'll get rookie Jonathan Mingo more involved. Carolina's second-round pick in this year's NFL Draft ran the second-most routes (76) for the Panthers in the final two games before their bye in Week 7. He had 10 targets, seven receptions and 69 receiving yards. If Brown can figure out more creative ways to get his physically gifted rookie wideout the ball, Mingo can be a weapon after the catch. He's not a desirable standalone pick but is an intriguing bring-back to the Texans at a punt salary.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -6.5
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Rams Analysis: Since Cooper Kupp was activated from Injured Reserve (IR) in Week 5, Puka Nacua has a 36.6% target share, 19 receptions, 251 receiving yards, 277 air yards, 2.51 Y/RR and one touchdown reception. The rookie has bested Kupp in target share and receptions, making their salary discrepancy egregious. Nacua is underpriced relative to his elite usage and production.
Cowboys Analysis: Among 33 tight ends targeted at least 15 times this year, Jake Ferguson is a rock-solid 12th in Yards per Route Run (1.34 Y/RR). The second-year tight end is a useful player at an affordable salary in a cushy matchup this week. Since Week 4, the Rams have allowed 5.8 receptions per game, 83.8 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Spread: MIN -1.0
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: Brandon Powell was fourth on the Vikings in routes (57) and had nine targets, seven receptions and 84 receiving yards in two games since Justin Jefferson was hurt in Week 5. Per The 33rd Team, Powell was in the slot 62.5% of the time in Week 6 and 64.3% in Week 7.
The diminutive wideout has a favorable matchup from the slot against Green Bay's secondary. The Packers have allowed the eighth-most DK (22.5) and the sixth-most FD (18.2) points per game to slot receivers since Week 4.
The Vikings are slight favorites, and Jordan Love flubbed a golden opportunity against Denver's pitiful defense this week. So, Minnesota's DST is a good punt this week.
Packers Analysis: Since Love couldn't get right last week, gamers can't trust him and Green Bay's players in DFS this week.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: NO -1.0
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Saints Analysis: Alvin Kamara is a point-per-reception (PPR) and half-PPR cheat code with Derek Carr at quarterback for the Saints. He's averaging 8.8 receptions and 44.3 receiving yards per game, saying nothing of his 17.3 rush attempts per game, 65.3 rushing yards per game and one touchdown.
Kamara has a mouthwatering matchup for a slate-breaking performance this week. The Colts have allowed 108.3 rushing yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry, eight rushing touchdowns, 4.5 receptions per game, 35.5 receiving yards per game and 7.9 yards per reception to running backs since Week 4.
Colts Analysis: In five games this season when Gardner Minshew played at least 67% of Indianapolis's snaps, Josh Downs had 36 targets, 28 receptions (5.6 per game), 337 receiving yards (67.4 per game), 2.04 Y/RR and two touchdown receptions. This week, he has an average matchup from the slot against a defense that's ceded the 15th-most DK (18.6) and the 14th-most FD (13.6) points per game to slot receivers since Week 4.
Game: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -9.5
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Patriots Analysis: Demario Douglas ran at least 25 routes in two contests this year, opening with 27 in Week 1 and running 25 last week. The rookie matched his season high for receptions (four) and set a new professional high for receiving yards (54) last week, adding 20 rushing yards on one rush.
Douglas ran only four routes against the Dolphins in Week 2. Yet, he had two targets and two receptions for 19 receiving yards. Unfortunately, he lost a fumble and was in the doghouse after that.
Douglas can atone for the fumble in a decent matchup in the rematch this week. The Dolphins have allowed the 10th-most DK (19.5) and the 10th-most FD (14.8) points per game to slot wideouts since Week 4.
Dolphins Analysis: Tyreek Hill is tied for third in target share (32.9%), fourth in air yards (844), ninth in receptions per game (7.6), first in receiving yards per game (128.9) and first in receiving touchdowns (seven) this season. His upside is undeniable. Hill is projected as the WR1 with the WR1 value score (WR1V) at both DFS providers this week.
However, Hill has only 13 receptions, 140 scrimmage yards and one touchdown in two games with Tua Tagovailoa as his starting quarterback against the Patriots. So, there's a compelling case to be underweight on him in tournaments.
Gamers can get leverage off Hill in GPPs by using Raheem Mostert in what should be a good game script. The big-play running back is averaging 89.3 scrimmage yards per game, 2.7 receptions per game and has 11 touchdowns.
Game: New York Jets at New York Giants
Spread: NYJ -3.0
Over/Under: 36.5 Points
Jets Analysis: Breece Hall was ramped up to a full workload in two games before Gang Green's bye in Week 7. The explosive second-year running back has a Charmin-soft matchup this week. Big Blue has allowed 126.0 rushing yards per game, 5.8 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 1.5 receptions per game, 15 receiving yards per game and 10.0 yards per reception to running backs since Week 4. As a result, Hall has the RB1 and the RB1V projection this week at both DFS outlets.
Giants Analysis: Gang Green's defense is fierce, and the G-Men's offense isn't good enough to overcome this matchup. The Giants aren't a source of DFS options this week.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: JAC -2.5
Over/Under: 42.0 Points
Jaguars Analysis: The Jaguars have run on an NFL-high 53% of their plays in a neutral game script since Week 4, and one running back is the beneficiary of their offensive tendencies.
Travis Etienne is a modern-day workhorse, averaging 18.1 rush attempts per game for 72.0 rushing yards per game and seven rushing touchdowns. The speedy running back also averages 3.4 receptions and 28.0 receiving yards per game.
His matchup isn't perfect. Still, Pittsburgh has allowed 105.7 rushing yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 2.3 receptions per game 18.7 receiving yards per game and 8.0 yards per reception to running backs since Week 4. The Jaguars are also favored, paving the way for Etienne to be busy from start to finish.
Christian Kirk was on a milk carton in Week 1. Since then, he's averaged 8.7 targets, 6.3 receptions and 77.5 receiving yards per game and scored three touchdowns. The good times should keep rolling for Jacksonville's slot wide receiver since the Steelers have allowed the most DK (36.1) and the most FD (28.1) points per game to slot wideouts since Week 4.
The Jags are first in turnovers forced (16) and have 13 sacks this season. They can score fantasy points when they pin their ears back in a positive game script.
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers have won four games this year despite their offense. Matt Canada didn't fix Pittsburgh's offense in their return from a bye in Week 7. There's no reason for optimism against Jacksonville's top-shelf defense.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans
Spread: ATL -2.5
Over/Under: 35.5 Points
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons should tee off on what projects to be a quarterback tandem of Will Levis and Malik Willis in relief of an injured Ryan Tannehill.
According to PFF, Willis has been sacked on 15.4% of his dropbacks in the NFL. Levis had one interception and took four sacks on 19 dropbacks in the preseason after regressing in his final collegiate season. Any defense would be an appealing pick against the Titans this week, and Atlanta's defense is above average.
Titans Analysis: I initially expected to like Tennessee's defense as a contrarian pick in GPPs this week. They're not appealing after a deeper dive, though. The Titans were a pass-funnel defense last year and early this season. However, Tennessee's opponents have run on 53% of their 137 plays in a neutral game script since Week 4. Arthur Smith will gladly continue the trend of running often against the Titans, meaning Desmond Ridder isn't likely to be in a position to take sacks or turn the ball over.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Spread: PHI -6.5
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles are taking flight. They've passed on 59% of their 260 plays in a neutral game script since Week 4. Jalen Hurts isn't perfect this year, evidenced by his NFL-high eight interceptions. Still, he's setting a new high for passing yards per game (260.1). The dual-threat quarterback has also passed for nine touchdowns, rushed for 39.1 yards per game and plunged into the end zone six times on the ground. Hurts torched Washington's lousy pass defense in Week 4 and is projected as the QB1 in DFS this week.
A.J. Brown is the primary beneficiary of Philadelphia's pass-happy attack. He's tied for third in target share (32.9%), first in air yards (988), 10th in receptions per game (7.4), second in receiving yards per game (115.6) and has three receiving touchdowns this year.
The physical wideout has a dreamy matchup this week. The Commanders have allowed the most DK (27.8) and the most FD (22.1) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 4. Moreover, as Dwain McFarland from Fantasy Life pointed out on X, Brown is a monster against man coverage, and the Commanders play the second-most man coverage this year.
Dallas Goedert is in a groove after a slow start. In the previous three games, he had 22 targets, 18 receptions, 236 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Commanders held him to only two receptions for 25 scoreless yards in Week 4. Nevertheless, Washington is an excellent matchup for Goedert. They've allowed 6.3 receptions per game, 65.8 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns to tight ends since Week 4.
Commanders Analysis: Terry McLaurin came into the year with turf toe but seems to have put the issue behind him. Since Week 4, he has had 36 targets, 24 receptions (6.0 per game) and 306 receiving yards (76.5 per game).
The matchup shouldn't deter gamers from using McLaurin this week. Since Week 4, they've allowed the fourth-most DK (22.7) and the fourth-most FD (17.5) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Washington's No. 1 wideout is a game-stacking option.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -3.5
Over/Under: 38.0 Points
Browns Analysis: Cleveland's defense had a hiccup last week. Nonetheless, it was just that, a hiccup. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest yards per play (4.4), forced eight turnovers and totaled 19 sacks in six games this season.
They can get back on track this week against the Seahawks. Per PFF, among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks this season, Geno Smith has the sixth-highest Turnover-Worthy Play Percentage (4.0 TWP%). He's not shy about putting the ball in harm's way, and Cleveland's defense can make him pay for doing so.
Seahawks Analysis: The Browns have allowed only one team to exceed 300 yards on offense and held three opponents to 17 points or fewer. It's not a great spot to invest in the Seahawks in DFS this week, suffice to say.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: BAL -8.5
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens have a juicy implied total, and Lamar Jackson is coming off a monster performance in Week 7. Untimely drops in previous starts depressed his numbers, but Jackson erupted for 357 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, 36 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown last week.
Jackson shouldn't have difficulty staying hot this week. Arizona has allowed the sixth-most Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (6.8 ANY/A), the 10th-most passing yards per game (237.6) and tied for the sixth-most passing touchdowns (11) allowed this season.
Fortunately, Jackson's target distribution is highly concentrated. Since Mark Andrews made his season debut in Week 2, he's had a 22.7% target share, and Zay Flowers has had a 25.0% target share.
Andrews has a challenging matchup. Although, he's also Baltimore's most likely pass-catcher to find paydirt, pacing the Ravens in touchdown receptions (five). Andrews is also tied for the most targets inside the 10-yard line (six) among tight ends this season.
The Ravens have moved Flowers around the formation, and he hasn't been overwhelmed by the learning curve, averaging team highs for receptions per game (5.6) and receiving yards per game (63.1).
Flowers has a plus matchup wherever he aligns against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the ninth-most DK (19.4) and the ninth-most FD (15.3) points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 4. They've also surrendered the third-most DK (30.3) and the second-most FD (23.3) points per game to slot wideouts during that four-game stretch.
This week, the Ravens are sizable favorites, meaning a likely positive game script for Gus Edwards. The Gus Bus can roll through Arizona's porous run defense. They've allowed 121.8 rushing yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 4.5 receptions per game, 28.3 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception to running backs since Week 4.
Cardinals Analysis: Trey McBride is tied for second in Yards per Route Run (1.87 Y/RR) and fourth in Yards After the Catch per Reception (6.1 YAC/REC) among tight ends targeted at least 15 times this year. Additionally, he's been targeted on 22.0% of his 91 routes this season.
The sophomore shared time at the position with Zach Ertz, leaving his surface stats lagging behind his efficiency stats. Ertz was placed on IR this week. Thus, McBride is alone atop the depth chart and should see sufficient volume to pay off his punt salary.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Spread: KC -7.0
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is running a pass-heavy offense and cooking with gasoline. Since Travis Kelce debuted in Week 2, Mahomes has averaged 298.5 passing yards per game and thrown for 13 touchdowns.
Mahomes had his best game of the season in Week 7, shredding the Chargers for 424 passing yards, four passing touchdowns and 29 rushing yards. He passed for 306 yards against the Broncos in Week 6 but had only one passing touchdown. Mahomes will have another chance to torch the NFL's worst pass defense. The Broncos have allowed NFL highs in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (7.9 ANY/A) and touchdown passes this season (16).
If Mahomes blows up this week, Kelce will almost certainly have a big game. The NFL's best tight end has a perfect blend of volume and efficiency. Kelce's 26.3% target share is the highest among tight ends since Week 2. Yet, Kelce's 2.92 Y/RR is over a yard greater than the second-highest mark among tight ends targeted at least 15 times this season. Kelce is on another level.
Rashee Rice is Kansas City's most effective wide receiver and is ascending in a deep rotation. Since Week 5, he's fifth on the Chiefs in routes (63). However, the rookie was second in targets (15), receptions (13), receiving yards (165) and tied for first in touchdown receptions (two) in those games. Things are clicking for Rice, and Mahomes has no reason to stop feeding him.
Isiah Pacheco is the featured running back for the Chiefs, and they're favorites. The Broncos have allowed 127.0 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 7.0 receptions per game, 45.3 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception to running backs since Week 4. Pacheco has touched the ball at least 17 times in five consecutive games. That workload will do the trick against Denver's defense.
Broncos Analysis: Mahomes and Co. get the love on the offensive side of the ball, but Kansas City's defense is fearsome. The Chiefs are tied for the seventh-fewest yards allowed per play (4.9), have forced the ninth-most turnovers (11) and are tied for the seventh-most sacks (22). Denver doesn't have the weapons to use in DFS against Kansas City's stingy defense.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -3.5
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Bengals Analysis: Cincinnati's offense hasn't clicked on all cylinders this year, but it's not slowing down Ja'Marr Chase. He's averaging career-highs in receptions per game (8.3) and receiving yards per game (92.7). The third-year wide receiver also has three touchdown receptions, albeit in one game against Arizona's dreadful pass defense.
San Francisco's defense has stars at every level, but their cornerbacks have struggled against wide receivers. They've allowed the third-most DK (24.0) and the third-most FD (18.9) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 4.
The Bengals had a dominant defensive performance in Week 6, a bye in Week 7 and will probably face a backup quarterback this week. It's a nifty setup for them as a punt.
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey is the centerpiece in San Francisco's offense. He's second in the NFL in rush attempts (125), third in rushing yards per game (85.4) and second in rushing touchdowns (eight) this year.
CMC is also a weapon in the passing game, averaging 3.7 receptions per game and 32.6 receiving yards per game with three receiving touchdowns. McCaffrey can reach his lofty ceiling in a good matchup this week. The Bengals have coughed up 106.7 rushing yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 3.7 receptions per game and 27.0 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 4. He's projected as the RB1 in DFS this week.
Brock Purdy is in the NFL's concussion protocol. The turnaround from playing on Monday night to this week's game is probably too fast for him to clear the protocol. As a result, Sam Darnold will get the keys to Kyle Shanahan's quarterback-friendly offense if Purdy is out. Shanahan has brought the best out of quarterbacks with less pedigree. Darnold isn't risk-free, but the optimizer likes him, projecting him for the highest value score at any position on DK.
Brandon Aiyuk is the top healthy option in San Francisco's passing attack since Deebo Samuel is already ruled out. In five games without Samuel since last year, Aiyuk has had 35 targets, 27 receptions (5.4 per game), 339 receiving yards (67.8), 2.28 Y/RR and two touchdown receptions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
