The Week 7 NFL DFS main slate has 10 games. After a week of low scoring, three games have totals under 40, and none have a total of over 50 points. This week’s NFL DFS Digest works through the games to identify the most appealing player selections, narrowing them to a manageable number.
Week 7 Matchups
Game: Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -3.0
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Lions Analysis: According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Lamar Jackson is tied for the ninth-highest Turnover-Worthy-Play Percentage (3.5 TWP%) and is tied for the 10th-highest Pressure-to-Sack Percentage (22.1 P2S%) among 35 quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks this year. Detroit's defense is also the real deal. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they're tied for the fifth-fewest yards allowed per play (4.7), tied for 12th in turnovers forced (eight), eighth in pressure rate (26.5%) and tied for 15th in sacks (15). So, the Lions have a rock-solid bargain DST this week.
Ravens Analysis: Jared Goff is avoiding sacks and turnover this year. Nevertheless, Baltimore's favored at home and has a stacked and productive defense. The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest yards per play (4.0) and are tied for 12th in turnovers forced (eight) and tied for first in sacks (24). The total package is substantial for Baltimore DST's bargain salary at DraftKings, where they have the DST1 value score (DSTV1).
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears
Spread: LV -3.0
Over/Under: 37.5 Points
Raiders Analysis: Michael Mayer's playing time and usage is rising. The rookie tight end set a season-high for playing time in Week 6 (81%) after playing a season-high 66% snap share in Week 5. Additionally, per PFF, he set highs for routes (22), targets (six), receptions (five) and receiving yards last week (75). Mayer's an ascending player and has a superb matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Bears have allowed 6.7 receptions per game, 55.3 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns to tight ends this year.
Bears Analysis: Undrafted rookie free agent (UDFA) Tyson Bagent will almost certainly start this week while Justin Fields nurses a significant thumb injury, turning a bad situation worse for Chicago's wretched offense. Thus, the Bears shouldn't be used in DFS this week.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: CLE -2.5
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Browns Analysis: In three games since Nick Chubb was injured, Jerome Ford has averaged 12.0 rushes per game, 3.0 receptions per game and 62.3 scrimmage yards per game. It was a challenging set of matchups, and Ford added two touchdowns for good measure.
He has an adequate matchup this week, and the Browns are favored. According to The 33rd Team, the Colts have allowed 87.2 rushing yards per game, 3.6 yards per carry, seven rushing touchdowns, 4.7 receptions per game and 36.2 receiving yards per game to running backs this season.
Cleveland's DST is also a desirable selection on DFS rosters with enough cap space to squeeze them in. The Browns have allowed the fewest yards per play (3.8), forced four turnovers, recorded 15 sacks and tallied the sixth-highest pressure rate (28.1%) in five games this season. Gardner Minshew is a favorable matchup as well. He has the highest Turnover-Worthy-Play Percentage (6.4 TWP%) among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks this season.
Colts Analysis: The Browns are a defense to avoid like the plague in DFS. There's no reason to dabble with players from the Colts this week.
Game: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Spread: BUF -8.5
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Bills Analysis: The Bills didn't make the most of a get-right matchup last week but have another this week against a familiar foe they've shredded in recent seasons. Buffalo has a pass-heavy offense. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Bills have passed on 61% of their 219 plays in a neutral game script this season.
Josh Allen has played well with Ken Dorsey putting the offense on his shoulders again this season. However, Allen's success against the Patriots lately is the most compelling reason to use him in DFS this week. In four games since the extremely windy game in Buffalo in Week 13 of 2021, Allen has completed 73.1% of pass attempts and averaged 274.8 passing yards per game with 13 touchdown passes and one interception against the Patriots. The dual-threat quarterback also averaged 41.5 rushing yards per game against New England in that four-game stretch. Allen is projected as the QB2 in DFS this week.
Stefon Diggs is Allen's top weapon and a target hog. He is first in target share (33.5%) and fourth in air yards (706). Buffalo's No. 1 wideout has turned his elite underlying data into a tie for the fourth-most receptions per game (8.2), the fifth-most receiving yards per game (103.3) and a tie for the second-most receiving touchdowns (five) in 2023.
Diggs has also destroyed the Patriots in seven games with the Bills. If you toss out the windy contest in Week 13 of 2021, Diggs has averaged 6.5 receptions per game and 96.3 receiving yards per game with six touchdown receptions in the six non-wind-impacted games. Furthermore, according to The 33rd Team, the Patriots have allowed the eighth-most DK (17.7) and the ninth-most FanDuel (13.7) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Diggs is projected as the WR2 at both DFS outlets this week.
Dalton Kincaid is out of the NFL's concussion protocol. The Bills haven't yet figured out how to get the most out of their first-round pick. Still, Kincaid is a cheap stacking option with Allen.
James Cook isn't a workhorse. However, he's handled 58.1% of Buffalo's backfield rush share for the year and 52.5% in the previous three weeks. The second-year running back also ran the most routes (49) in Buffalo's backfield since Week 4. Therefore, if not perfect, Cook's role is decent, and he could absorb extra opportunities with Damien Harris in the NFL's concussion protocol.
Cook's receiving prowess meshes well with New England's defense. They've yielded 5.3 receptions per game and 34.0 receiving yards per game to running backs this year. Additionally, Cook had six receptions for 41 receiving yards against the Patriots in Week 13 last season, and Allen demonstrated a willingness to pepper his running backs with targets during his heater against his AFC East foe.
The game script could also be ideal for Cook to receive opportunities on the ground, too. When the Bills have led by at least six points this season, they've rushed on 50% of their plays. Teams have also run on 46% of their plays in a neutral game script against New England this year. The volume should be rock-solid for Cook, and he has some juice, evidenced by tallying 11 rushes that went for 10-plus yards and three that went at least 15 yards this season.
Patriots Analysis: Kendrick Bourne ran his second-most routes (34) in a game in 2023 in Week 6. He also set season-highs for receptions (10) and receiving yards (89) in that contest. It was his second time reaching double-digit targets and besting 60 receiving yards this season.
The Patriots will likely need to air it out in a negative game script, and the matchup is stellar for Bourne. The Bills are tied for the sixth-most DK (17.8) and the seventh-most FD (14.0) points per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Bourne has moved around the alignment, and while kicking inside will be disadvantageous for his fantasy outlook, the Bills have allowed 14.1 DK and 10.7 FD points per game to the slot, which doesn't sound the death knell for Bourne at his bargain salary.
Game: Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Spread: WAS -2.5
Over/Under: 39.0 Points
Commanders Analysis: Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is calling a pass-happy offense. The Commanders have passed on 60% of their 221 plays in a neutral game script. Sam Howell hasn't lit the world on fire but has been a DFS asset. He's averaging 250.0 passing yards per game with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. The second-year quarterback reached at least 290 passing yards three times and threw multiple touchdown passes three times. He's also rushed for at least 11 yards five times this season. The gun-slinging quarterback is my favorite value signal-caller against a non-threatening defense.
Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel are Washington's most productive pass-catchers. McLaurin had at least four receptions in his previous five games and exceeded 80 receiving yards in two of his past three contests.
Samuel doesn't have as high of a ceiling as McLaurin. Still, he's a critical weapon in the offense, averaging 4.5 receptions per game and 47.5 receiving yards per game. Samuel has scored three touchdowns and has versatility, toting the rock four times for 20 yards and one of his three touchdowns in 2023. The veteran wideout has also been in his best form lately, averaging 5.7 receptions per game, 53.0 scrimmage yards and scoring three touchdowns since Week 4, reaching pay dirt in each of his last three games. McLaurin has the WR5V, and Samuel has the WR1V at DK.
Giants Analysis: Teams have attacked the Commanders through the air on 61% of their 216 plays in a neutral game script this year. If the Giants have a similar blueprint for attacking Washington's leaky secondary, young wideouts Wan'Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt could be excellent values.
Since Week 4, Robinson ran 88 routes with 20 targets, 18 receptions and 120 receiving yards. The second-year slot wideout isn't a big-play threat, but he's a cheap source of points at DK's point-per-reception (PPR) platform. The sophomore also had season-highs for targets (eight), receptions (eight) and receiving yards (62) in Week 6, with Tyrod Taylor making a spot start. It appears Taylor will start again this week, and Robinson has the WR3V.
Hyatt hasn't made the same box-score impact as Robinson. However, he ran the third-most routes (91) on the Giants since Week 4. The speedy rookie had season-highs for targets (four) and receptions (three) last week, albeit for only 21 receiving yards. Taylor also took a deep shot that fell short and was broken up by the Bills last week.
In addition to being appealing picks because of their low salaries, Robinson and Hyatt can benefit from a sweet matchup. The Commanders have allowed the fourth-most DK (22.5) and the third-most FD (18.0) points per game to perimeter wideouts. They're also tied for the 14th-most DK (20.3) and the 12th-most FD (16.9) points per game allowed to slot wide receivers.
New York's DST is the cheapest viable option on FD against a sack-prone quarterback and has the DST1V. Howell has the highest Pressure-to-Sack Percentage (33.7 P2S%) among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks this season.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -2.5
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Falcons Analysis: The Buccaneers are the biggest pass-funnel defense, facing a pass on 68% of plays in a neutral game script. It's unlikely Arthur Smith will completely abandon his run-heavy ways this week, but even a modest uptick in pass attempts would be ideal for Jonnu Smith.
The veteran tight end is playing at a high level since posting a bagel in Week 1. Among tight ends targeted at least 10 times since Week 2, Smith is ninth in targets (32), tied for fifth in receptions (25), fourth in receiving yards (282), third in Yards per Route Run (2.03 Y/RR) and has one touchdown reception. The Bucs haven't stymied tight ends, either. They've allowed them 5.4 receptions per game and 40.4 receiving yards per game.
Buccaneers Analysis: Tampa Bay's DST has a tasty matchup. Desmond Ridder has the third-highest Turnover-Worthy-Play Percentage (5.7 TWP%) and the fifth-highest Pressure-to-Sack Percentage (24.4 P2S%) among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks in 2023. Thankfully, Tampa Bay can take advantage of the matchup. The Bucs have forced 10 turnovers and totaled 15 sacks in five games this season.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: LAR -3.0
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Steelers Analysis: The bye was unlikely to fix what ails Pittsburgh's offense. Instead, they're a fade in DFS until offensive coordinator Matt Canada overhauls the offense or is relieved of his duties.
Rams Analysis: Cooper Kupp is averaging 7.5 receptions per game and 133.0 receiving yards per game with one touchdown reception in two healthy contests this year. He's also reprised his role as the Rams' slot wideout. Per The 33rd team, Kupp's slot rates were 75.0% and 92.7% in two games.
His usage is ideal for this matchup. The Steelers have allowed the second-most DK (32.3) and the most FD (24.8) points per game to slot wide receivers. Kupp is in an eruption spot this week and is projected as the WR1 at both DFS providers in Week 7.
Rookie Zach Evans should get the first crack at headlining the Rams' backfield, but that's not even close to a certainty. Readers are encouraged to keep tabs on Jourdan Rodrigue's reporting until kickoff to understand better how Sean McVay will divvy up touches in LA's backfield.
Since McVay has routinely used a bell-cow back, if anyone emerges as the clear favorite, they could break the DFS slate as a screaming value in a plus matchup. The Steelers have allowed 117.0 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 3.4 receptions per game, 25.4 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs in 2023. Thus, Evans is a worthwhile gamble in GPPs as long as he still appears to get the first shot at the job come Sunday.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -7.5
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Cardinals Analysis: Marquise Brown has sterling underlying stats, ranking fifth among wide receivers in air yards (702) and 12th in target share (28.0%). Hollywood Brown isn't lighting the world on fire since the underlying stats aren't attached to a high-level quarterback. Nevertheless, he's averaging a useful 4.8 receptions per game and 55.7 receiving yards per game with three touchdown receptions.
The diminutive, speedy wide receiver moves around the formation for the Cardinals, but his easiest assignment will come when aligned in the slot this week. According to The 33rd Team, Brown has lined up in the slot on at least 30.8% of his snaps in each of the previous three games. Seattle has coughed up the most DK (32.7) and FD (30.3) points per game to slot wide receivers this year. Even when Brown is on the perimeter, the matchup is good. The Seahawks have allowed the 12th-most DK (15.6) and FD (15.0) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Hollywood Brown has the WR2V at DK and the WR6V at FD.
Seahawks Analysis: The Seahawks have passed on 63% of their 246 plays in a neutral game script this year, and a sizable percentage of their passing work goes through DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The former has a 20.8% target share and 448 air yards, and the latter has a 22.0% target share and 373 air yards this season.
The larger Metcalf has four targets and two touchdowns inside the 10-yard line this year, and the more slender Lockett has three and two. Both have the potential to explode weekly, including this week. Lockett has the alignment advantage over his more physically imposing teammate. According to The 33rd Team, Lockett's slot rate has ranged from 45.9% (Week 4) to 66.7% (Week 6), and the Cardinals have allowed the third-most DK (28.0) and FD (21.4) points per game to slot receivers this year.
However, according to PFF's WR/CB matchup chart, Metcalf has a larger matchup advantage than Lockett. The former has also been more productive than the latter against zone coverage this year, and Arizona has the seventh-highest zone coverage rate (81.4%) this season. According to PFF, Metcalf has 15 receptions on 16 targets for 250 receiving yards (2.45 Y/RR) against zone coverage this season compared to 13 on 22 for 133 (1.30 Y/RR) for Lockett.
Kenneth Walker is the most exciting piece from the Seahawks this week. He's a workhorse by the current NFL's standards, handling 74.8% of Seattle's backfield's rush share and leading their running backs in routes, running 81 versus 41 for Zach Charbonnet and 16 for DeeJay Dallas. Walker's converted his feature role into 69.0 rushing yards per game, six rushing touchdowns, 2.2 receptions per game and 20.0 receiving yards per game.
The second-year running back can run wild if the favored Seahawks live up to the betting expectations. They've run on 59% of their 59 plays this year when leading by at least six points. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have coughed up 112.8 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, five rushing touchdowns, 5.0 receptions per game, 31.5 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns to running backs this season. Walker is the RB2 with the RB4V at DK and the RB1 with the RB6V at FD.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
Spread: GB -1.0
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Packers Analysis: The Jordan Love era hasn't gotten off to a fast start, but the inexperienced starter has produced multiple touchdowns in four of five starts, reached at least 245 passing yards three times and bested 20 rushing yards three times. The best might be to come for him with an opportunity to regroup during Green Bay's bye last week and a Charmin-soft matchup on the docket. The Broncos have allowed the third-most passing yards per game (268.0) and the most passing touchdowns (14) this season. Denver also has the second-lowest pressure rate (16.7) this season.
Christian Watson had an incredibly efficient rookie season and missed the first three games this year. He was on a pitch count in his first game of the year in Week 4 but scored a touchdown on one of his two receptions for 25 yards. The second-year wide receiver had three receptions for 91 yards in Week 5 and could build on his flashes so far this year in a favorable matchup.
The Packers have moved their height-weight-and-speed freak around the formation, and he has an average or better matchup out wide or in the slot. The Broncos have allowed the 10th-most DK (17.2) and the eighth-most FD (13.8) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Denver has also allowed the 16th-most DK (19.6) and tied for the 14th-most FD (15.5) points per game allowed to slot wideouts.
Luke Musgrave also has a cushy matchup. The Broncos have yielded 6.2 receptions per game, 75.7 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns this year to tight ends, albeit with the caveat of facing the Chiefs in Week 6. The rookie tight end has run 122 routes this year, and none of Green Bay's other tight ends have reached even 50. Musgrave's 3.6 receptions per game and 31.8 receiving yards per game don't elicit excitement, but he can surpass his season marks in the cushy matchup this week, making him a good punt at tight end at both DFS outlets. The rookie has the TE1V at DK and the TE5V at FD.
Aaron Jones is working his way back from a hamstring injury he suffered in Week 1. If he can get back on the field this week, he'll add much-needed juice to Green Bay's offense. Jones will also benefit from a mouthwatering matchup. The Broncos have allowed 148.3 rushing yards per game (the most in the NFL), 5.9 yards per carry, eight rushing touchdowns, 6.7 receptions per game, 53.5 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns to running backs this season. The matchup is enough to make using Jones in tournaments at the risk of underperforming or suffering an in-game setback worth it.
Broncos Analysis: The Broncos don't have an explosive enough offense to offset their maddening player rotations. Thus, gamers shouldn't use Denver's players in DFS this week.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -5.5
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Chargers Analysis: Austin Ekeler returned in Week 6 from a multi-week absence with an ankle injury. The do-it-all back had only 27 rushing yards on 14 attempts and added four receptions for 35 yards on six targets. The yardage left much to be desired, but the 20 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) bode well for his DFS outlook this week and going forward. In addition, Ekeler averaged 95.8 scrimmage yards per game and 5.3 receptions per game with three touchdowns in his previous four games against the Chiefs. The stud running back is projected as the RB1 at DK and the RB2 at FD.
Keenan Allen is having a massive campaign in his first year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's offense. The veteran wideout has a 30.7% target share and is first in receptions per game (8.4), fourth in receiving yards per game (103.8) and tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (four) this year. His production would be even greater this season if Justin Herbert didn't make a few inaccurate throws to a wide-open Allen in Week 6. Finally, in his three prior meetings against the Chiefs, he had 19 receptions (6.3 per game), 222 receiving yards (74.0), and two receiving touchdowns. He's projected as the WR3 this week.
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs haven't been their usual juggernaut self this season. Still, the offense runs through their reigning MVP quarterback. The Chiefs have passed on 60% of their 269 plays in a neutral game script this year. Conveniently, the Chargers' opponents have passed on 61% of their 291 plays in a neutral game script, lighting them up for the most passing yards per game (289) and eight touchdown passes this year.
Patrick Mahomes can have a huge day against a team he's unloaded on lately. In four games against the Chargers with Brandon Staley as their head coach, Mahomes carved them up for 308.5 passing yards per game, 11 touchdown passes and 24.8 rushing yards per game. Understandably, Mahomes is projected as the QB1 in DFS this week.
Travis Kelce should terrorize the Chargers if Mahomes lights them up. In the same four-game sample in which Mahomes destroyed the Staley-coached Chargers, Kelce averaged 7.0 receptions per game and 115.3 receiving yards per game, eclipsing 100 yards three times and scoring an eye-popping five touchdowns. The superstar tight end also comes off a season-high 124 receiving yards on nine targets and nine receptions. Unsurprisingly, Kelce is projected as the TE1 in DFS and in a class of his own.
Rashee Rice has made the most of his part-time role and could see an increase in playing time after the extended break awarded to the Chiefs because they played in the Thursday Night Football contest in Week 6. Moreover, Rice is tailor-made for this matchup. Per The 33rd Team, Rice's slot rate has exceeded 58% in all six games, bested 65% four times and spiked to a season-high 70.6% last week. Meanwhile, the Chargers have permitted the fourth-most DK (26.0) and FD (21.0) points per game to slot wide receivers this year.
The rookie is also a zone killer. According to PFF, the Chargers are tied for the eighth-highest zone rate (80.4%) this season, and Rice is third on the Chiefs in targets (17), second in receptions (17) and second in receiving yards (217) against zone coverage in 2023.
Isiah Pacheco is another fun piece from the Chiefs as the team's featured back on the ground and a meaningful contributor as a pass-catching weapon. Since Week 4, he's had an 81.3% backfield rush share and toted the rock 52 times for 232 yards and two touchdowns. The second-year running back also ran 45 routes compared to 42 for Jerick McKinnon in the previous three weeks, and Pacheco had 10 receptions for 88 yards on 10 targets in those games.
He could also see an uptick in opportunities on the ground if the Chiefs steamroll the Chargers. Kansas City's rushed on 45% of their 174 plays when leading by six points. Even if it is a close game, Pacheco can be involved in all facets of the offense, making him a high-ceiling, game-script-proof weapon.
Finally, Kansas City's DST is an intriguing, cheap option in tournaments at DK. The Chiefs are tied for the fifth-fewest yards allowed per play (4.7) and have forced nine sacks and amassed 17 sacks this season. They also have the second-highest pressure rate (29.7%). Thus, the Chiefs can score points and make the most of a positive game script in front of their home crowd.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
