Week 6 has a massive NFL DFS main slate since there are only two teams on a bye and a game in London on Sunday morning, leaving 11 games. The slate is stacked with intriguing DFS options, but this piece navigates the vast choices to create a palatable player pool.
Week 1 Matchups
Game: Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: ATL -2.5
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Commanders Analysis: Logan Thomas is a superb value option at tight end this week. He's averaging 4.5 receptions per game and 45.8 receiving yards per game, with two touchdown receptions. Additionally, he's a target sponge near the end zone, tying for first among tight ends in targets inside the five-yard line (four), securing two touchdowns on those looks.
The veteran tight end also has a cushy matchup. According to The 33rd Team, Atlanta has permitted 7.0 receptions per game, 62.6 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Thus, Thomas has the highest value score among tight ends (TE1V) at DraftKings.
Falcons Analysis: Arthur Smith loves to run the football. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Falcons are tied for the third-highest rush rate (52%) in neutral game scripts this year. The supremely talented Bijan Robinson is making the most of the team's offensive tendencies, averaging 72.8 rushing yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry.
However, the rookie is also a game-script-proof player. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Robinson has run the third-most routes (128) among running backs this year. He's turned his route participation into 4.2 receptions per game, 29.2 receiving yards per game and two touchdown receptions, including an absurd touchdown reception in the red zone last week.
The do-it-all running back is the RB3 at DraftKings and the RB2 at FanDuel, with the RB2V at the latter.
Jonnu Smith was blanked in Week 1. However, he's been critical to Atlanta's passing attack since then. According to PFF, Smith is tied for fourth in receptions (21), second in receiving yards (246), fourth in Yards per Route Run (2.28) and fourth in Yards After the Catch per Reception (6.0 YAC/REC) among tight ends targeted at least eight times since Week 2. Smith is overqualified for his bargain salary.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Spread: MIN -2.5
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: According to RotoViz's pace app, the Vikings are playing at the second-fastest pace (25.2 seconds per snap) and passing at the highest rate (69%) in neutral game scripts this season. Unfortunately, their alpha wideout is injured. The Vikings placed Justin Jefferson on the Injured Reserve (IR) this week.
He leaves a massive hole in the passing attack, even if the team reduces their pass rate. T.J. Hockenson is the best bet to soak up the most significant percentage of the vacated targets, and Jordan Addison is the second-most exciting option.
Hockenson is averaging 6.0 receptions per game and 50.8 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns this year and could build on all those numbers in a plus matchup. The Bears have allowed 6.8 receptions per game, 56.4 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns to tight ends this year. This week, Hockenson is projected as the TE1 in DFS and has the TE1V at FD.
Addison could see an uptick in usage in the wake of Jefferson's injury after flashing his potential to this point. The rookie wideout has cleared 50 receiving yards four times, besting 60 three times and finding paydirt in three games.
Bears Analysis: Justin Fields is white-hot. In the previous two weeks, the third-year quarterback has completed 67.2% of his passes for 617 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception. Fields can stay hot against a defense that's allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game (240.0) and nine passing touchdowns this season.
Of course, Fields also has rushing potential, eclipsing 45 rushing yards or scoring a touchdown in four games this season. Fields is projected as the QB2 at both DFS providers in Week 6.
DJ Moore is Chicago's No. 1 wideout and is on the same wavelength as Fields. Moore is sixth in receiving yards per game (106.2), tied for first in touchdown receptions (five) and averages 5.4 receptions per game. He doesn't need much help either, doing a ton of damage after the catch. Moore is third in yards after the catch (229) among wideouts this season.
He can torch the Vikings this week. According to The 33rd Team, perimeter wide receivers have averaged the most DK (27.1) and FD (21.8) points per game against Minnesota this year. Moore has a favorable matchup if he's moved into the slot, too. The Vikings have allowed the 11th-most DK (23.0) and the 14th-most FD (16.3) points to slot wide receivers this season.
D'Onta Foreman is a projected-volume-driven punt. Khalil Herbert has a high-ankle sprain, Roschon Johnson is in the NFL's concussion protocol and hasn't practiced and Travis Homer has a hamstring injury and has missed practice through Thursday. Therefore, Foreman is the last person standing.
He had at least a 40% snap share in seven games for the Panthers last year. In that seven-game sample, Foreman had 741 rushing yards, 5.1 yards per carry, five rushing touchdowns, five receptions and 26 receiving yards. Foreman doesn't bring a receiving element to the game but has plenty in the tank as a runner to provide value as a punt on DFS rosters this week.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -3.0
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Seahawks Analysis: Kenneth Walker is the most exciting option from the Seahawks and a high-upside pick. The sensational sophomore is averaging 70.8 rushing yards per game, 2.0 receptions per game, 18.3 receiving yards per game and has five rushing touchdowns. The Seahawks trust him in scoring territory. Walker is tied for second in rushes inside the five-yard line (eight) among running backs, punching in four touchdowns from that area of the field.
The matchup is tantalizing for him this week. The Bengals have allowed 107.2 rushing yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry to running backs this year. Walker should gash them.
Seattle's passing attack also has viable DFS options. The Seahawks are tied for the sixth-highest pass rate (62%) in neutral game scripts this year. DK Metcalf is the top producer in Seattle's passing game, pacing the team in receptions per game (4.5), receiving yards per game (67.0) and tying for the most touchdown receptions (two) this season.
Moreover, Metcalf is a better matchup fit. According to PFF, the Bengals play man coverage at the 11th-highest rate (28.7%) this year, and Metcalf had 15 receptions for 237 receiving yards compared to 13 for 114 by Lockett through five weeks. In addition, Metcalf had 26 receptions, 427 receiving yards, 3.28 Y/RR and four touchdowns against man coverage in 2022, and Lockett had 12, 141 and two in 2022.
Noah Fant is a matchup-driven punt. The veteran tight end averages 2.5 receptions per game and 40.0 receiving yards per game this season. However, the Bengals have coughed up 5.4 receptions per game, 53.8 receiving yards per game and four touchdowns to tight ends this season.
Bengals Analysis: Joe Burrow got back on track last week against the Cardinals. He completed 78.3% of his 46 passes for 317 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Now that Burrow is seemingly healthier, he can take advantage of Cincinnati's pass-happy tendencies and Seattle's porous pass defense. The Bengals have the third-highest pass rate (65%) in neutral game scripts, and the Seahawks have allowed the third-most passing yards per game (280.0) this season.
Ja'Marr Chase was a one-man wrecking crew last week. He had 15 receptions, 192 receiving yards and three touchdowns. This season, Chase is fourth in target share (32.1%), second in yards after the catch (234) and tied for second in red-zone targets (nine) among wide receivers. He's also tied for second in receptions per game (8.8), eighth in receiving yards per game (95.2) and has three receiving touchdowns.
Chase has a favorable matchup this week, no matter where he aligns. The Seahawks have allowed the ninth-most DK (18.1) and the 10th-most FD (14.1) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. They've also allowed the second-most DK (31.4) and FD (23.6) points per game to slot wideouts. So, Chase is the WR2 at both DFS outlets, tied for the WR2V at FD and has the WR6V at DK.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
Spread: SF -6.5
Over/Under: 37.5 Points
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey is the RB1 in DFS this week. CMC is a do-it-all stud, ranking third in rushing yards per game (102.0), tied for first in rushing touchdowns (seven) and adding 4.0 receptions per game, 33.6 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown. The sky is the limit for him, even against Cleveland's fearsome defense.
Brandon Aiyuk is a sneaking leverage play in GPPs instead of using CMC. The Browns have played man coverage at the highest rate (39.5%) this year, and Aiyuk destroys man coverage. Among 73 wide receivers with at least five targets against man coverage this year, Aiyuk is eighth in Yards per Route Run (3.48 Y/RR). He's also hauled in two touchdowns against man coverage. Don't sleep on Aiyuk. Gamers entering multiple lineups in GPPs should fire a few bullets on Aiyuk.
Browns Analysis: The Browns aren't a serious threat to San Francisco's elite defense, even if Deshaun Watson can play. Yet, it's trending toward P.J. Walker starting, making it a no-brainer to wholesale fade Cleveland in DFS in Week 6.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans
Spread: NO -1.5
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Saints Analysis: The Saints are 27th in yards per play (4.4) and 22nd in scoring offense (19.2). A case can always be made for using Alvin Kamara or Chris Olave in DFS, but there are more appealing options than them this week.
Texans Analysis: It appears Tank Dell will miss this contest while recovering from a concussion. Noah Brown should return, but Robert Woods is positioned as Houston's No. 2 wideout this week. Even a slight uptick to Woods's 4.2 receptions per game and 44.2 receiving yards per game this season in an elevated role this week would make him a screaming value at DK, where he's tied for the WR2V.
Houston's DST is a rock-solid value option at both DFS sites. They've forced seven turnovers and recorded seven sacks this year. They can add to their sack totals against a quarterback that struggles with pressure. According to PFF, Derek Carr has the third-highest Pressure-to-Sack Percentage (27.8 P2S%) among quarterbacks with at least 70 dropbacks this year.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: JAC -4.0
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Colts Analysis: In three games when Gardner Minshew played the majority of Indianapolis's snaps at quarterback this year, Josh Downs averaged 6.0 receptions per game and 63.7 receiving yards per game. The rookie is coming off his best game as a pro, securing six receptions for 97 yards on six targets. He can maintain momentum and has the WR4V at DK.
Jaguars Analysis: The Jaguars had a fruitful trip across the pond, and their offense is humming. Trevor Lawrence is the trigger man and has excellent underlying stats, ranking fifth in PFF's passing grade and tied for fourth in Big-Time Throw Percentage (5.7 BTT%). Lawrence had a season-high 315 passing yards last week, and he adds value with his legs, surpassing 20 rushing yards in four contests this season.
Lawrence has also carved up Gus Bradley's defense in three games when paired with Doug Pederson. In those contests, he completed 82.1% of his passes for 641 yards, five touchdowns and one interception, adding 55 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk should put Indy's secondary in a blender. The former had eight receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Colts in Week 1. Ridley had a few underwhelming weeks before re-emerging for seven receptions, 122 receiving yards, two rushes and 14 rushing yards last week.
Conversely, since a quiet showing against the Colts in Week 1, Kirk has averaged 7.3 receptions and 81.5 receiving yards per game with one touchdown in four subsequent contests. Despite his lousy showing in Week 1, Indy's secondary is an ideal matchup for Jacksonville's slot wide receiver. The Colts have coughed up the fifth-most DK (26.0) and FD (20.0) points per game to slot wideouts this season. As a result, Kirk is tied for the WR2V at DK this week.
Travis Etienne is also an elite pick from the favored Jaguars. Etienne has a 78% snap share this year, exceeding 80% in the previous two weeks. The speedy running back isn't knocked over by a stiff wind, either. Instead, he leads running backs in broken tackles on rush attempts (16) this year. The box-score numbers are also outstanding. Etienne is sixth in rushing yards per game (79.2) and has three rushing touchdowns.
The speedster also contributes to the passing game, averaging 3.6 receptions per game and 28.8 receiving yards per game. The well-rounded contributor has a good matchup this week. The Colts have allowed 126.0 scrimmage yards per game, 4.8 receptions per game and five rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -13.5
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Panthers Analysis: Adam Thielen has thrived with a move to the slot. He's fifth in receptions per game (7.6), averages 78.8 receiving yards per game and has three receiving touchdowns as Carolina's No. 1 wideout.
The Panthers will almost certainly be in a negative game script against Miami's elite offense. Therefore, Carolina must chuck it often to keep up, putting Jonathan Mingo on the radar as a punt. The rookie wideout hasn't kicked the door down. Still, he had new highs last week for receptions (five) and receiving yards (48).
Thielen and Mingo also have average matchups this week. The Dolphins have allowed the 15th-most DK (16.3) and the 13th-most FD (12.9) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Miami has also allowed the 15th-most DK (20.2) and the 16th-most FD (15.5) points per game to slot wideouts.
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins have a juggernaut offense led by Tua Tagovailoa. The lefty is eviscerating defenses. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he's first in passing yards per game (322.8), second in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (9.11 ANY/A) and tied for second in passing touchdowns (11).
Obviously, Miami's implied total is perfect for their trigger man, too. So, Tua is the QB3 in DFS this week, albeit with some risk that the Dolphins take the air out of the ball or remove him early in a blowout.
It's apparent who is Tagovailoa's top target. Tyreek Hill is first in yards after the catch (273), fourth in air yards (599), seventh in target share (30.1%) and tied for fifth in red-zone targets (eight) among wide receivers this season. He's parlayed his drool-inducing underlying data into massive box-score production. Hill is tied for seventh in receptions per game (7.2), first in receiving yards per game (130.2) and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (five). The speed merchant is the WR1 in DFS this week and has the WR1V at FD.
Raheem Mostert is also in an eruption spot, with De'Von Achane on the IR. Before the emergence of Achane in Week 3, Mostert had a snap share of 73% in the first two contests of the year. Mostert had only one dud this year, struggling against Buffalo's defense in Week 4. The speedy veteran running back has averaged 62.8 rushing yards per game, 3.0 receptions per game, 25.6 receiving yards per game and scored eight touchdowns (seven rushing and one receiving) this season.
The Panthers will provide him with a mouthwatering matchup this week. The Panthers have allowed 128.0 rushing yards per game, eight rushing touchdowns, 4.0 receptions per game, 28.8 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown. Mostert is the RB5 at FD, RB6 at DK, and he has the RB1V at DK.
Game: New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: LV -3.0
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Patriots Analysis: The Patriots have scored three points in their last two games. They're an unserious offense and a non-option in DFS.
Raiders Analysis: Jakobi Meyers can stick it to his former employer after they inexplicably opted to sign Juju Smith-Schuster instead of retaining Meyers. The 26-year-old wideout is balling for the Raiders, reaching double-digit targets in three of four healthy contests. He's averaging 6.3 receptions per game and 68.5 receiving yards per game, sprinkling three touchdowns in for good measure.
Las Vegas's DST is also a decent selection, specifically at FD. Mac Jones has the highest Turnover-Worthy Play Percentage (6.3 TWP%) and the most Turnover-Worthy Plays (12) among quarterbacks with at least 70 dropbacks this season. The Raiders didn't force a turnover through three games before forcing one against the Chargers and three against the Packers. This week is a golden opportunity for them to add to their turnover tally.
Game: Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: DET -3.0
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Lions Analysis: The Lions have a legitimate defense this year. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they have the eighth-highest pressure rate (26.4%), allowing the sixth-lowest yards per play (4.7), tying for 14th in sacks (14) and tying for 11th in turnovers forced (seven). Detroit has the DST1V at DK and the DST3V at FD.
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers are coming out of their bye, giving them an extra week to prepare for the visiting Lions. Additionally, Jared Goff has performed markedly worse on the road as a member of the Lions.
Tampa Bay's defense is rock-solid, too. They're tied for the 10th-fewest yards allowed per play (5.0), have 12 sacks and forced 10 turnovers in only four games this season. Finally, Tampa Bay's DST has the DST4V at DK. Yet, they're also the cheapest viable defense on FD.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: LAR -7.0
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Cardinals Analysis: Arizona's offense has exceeded preseason expectations and is fun for fantasy. They're tied for the 10th-highest situation-neutral pass rate (59%) and tied for the seventh-fastest pace (27.3 seconds per snap).
Their offensive tendencies mesh with how teams are attacking the Rams. The Rams are tied for the eighth-highest pass rate (62%) against them in neutral game scripts this year.
Marquise Brown is the most exciting piece of Arizona's offense. Hollywood Brown is 12th in air yards (494) and 12th in target share (27.8%) among wideouts in 2023. Brown has converted his air yards and target share into 5.0 receptions per game, 60.0 receiving yards per game and three touchdown receptions, tacking on a 29-yard run. Arizona's No. 1 wideout has the WR1V at DK.
Michael Wilson is in a bounce-back spot this week. Per PFF, the Rams are playing zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate (81.3%) this year, and Wilson has a 19.2% target share, 15 receptions and 255 receiving yards on 94 routes against zone coverage this year. Furthermore, in Matt Harmon's two-game sample at Reception Perception for Wilson in his 2022 collegiate season at Stanford, the young wideout had a rock-solid 73.5% success rate versus zone coverage.
Emari Demercado is listed as the No. 2 running back on Arizona's depth chart. The listing might be veteran deference to second-year pro Keaontay Ingram. Regardless, Ingram has averaged a pitiful 1.9 yards per carry on 39 rush attempts and reeled in only five receptions in 15 games played for the Cardinals.
Conversely, Demercado flashed potential last week. The UDFA had 10 rush attempts, 45 rushing yards, one touchdown rush, three targets, one reception and 12 receiving yards in Week 5. Demercado was a backup running back in TCU's loaded running-back room, playing well in spurts and erupting for 150 rushing yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts against Michigan in the playoffs last season.
The rookie also has an eye-catching athletic profile and a decent matchup this week.
Finally, the Rams have allowed 102.8 scrimmage yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, 3.2 receptions per game and two touchdowns (both rushing) to running backs this season.
Rams Analysis: Sean McVay is dialing up a fun, pass-first offense. The Rams are tied for the third-highest pass rate (64%) in neutral game scripts this season. As a result, Matthew Stafford is fourth in passing yards per game (290.2) but has thrown for only five touchdowns. The underlying data is arguably more exciting. The veteran signal-caller is sixth in PFF passing grade and first in Big-Time Throw Percentage (6.6 BTT%) among quarterbacks with at least 70 dropbacks in 2023.
Stafford can carve up a suspect pass defense with his elite pass-catching weapons. The Cardinals have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game (251.4) and eight passing touchdowns. Arizona also has the second-lowest pressure rate (16.3%).
Circling back to LA's elite pass-catching weapons, there's plenty of room in LA's offense for Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, evidenced by last week's data. In Kupp's 2023 season debut, he had a 35.3% target share, 137 air yards, eight receptions and 118 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Nacua had a 32.4% target share, 126 air yards, seven receptions, 71 receiving yards and one touchdown reception.
The matchup is tasty for them, too. The Cardinals have allowed the 10th-most DK (17.9) and the 12th-most FD (13.3) points per game to perimeter wideouts. Arizona has also yielded the sixth-most DK (25.6) and the eighth-most FD (19.4) points per game to slot wide receivers.
Understandably, LA's top wideouts are projection darlings. Kupp is the WR3, and Nacua is the WR6 in DFS this week.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
Spread: PHI -7.0
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Eagles Analysis: Among running backs with at least 40 rush attempts this year, D'Andre Swift is second in yards before contact per attempt (4.0 YBCON/ATT), evidence of Philadephia's elite run-blocking ability. However, Swift isn't some stiff, tying for the third-most broken tackles forced as a runner. He's also fifth in rushing yards per game (86.8) despite rushing only once for three yards in Week 1.
The "Brotherly Shove" is a thorn in Swift's side. However, he's still tied for seventh among running backs in rushes inside the five-yard line (five), splashing two touchdowns on those attempts.
Swift has a tasty matchup for the favored Eagles this week. The Jets have allowed 106.8 rushing yards per game, 6.2 receptions per game, 52.0 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns (one rushing and one receiving) to running backs this season.
Jets Analysis: Zach Wilson couldn't build on his stellar effort from Week 4 in Week 5. He didn't completely barf on his cleats against Denver's lousy defense. Still, the worst version of Wilson could rear its ugly head under duress against Philadelphia's elite defensive line this week. So, gamers are advised to avoid the Jets in DFS this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
