NFL DFS Digest: Week 5 Picks & Predictions (Fantasy Football)

It’s the first week of the NFL season with byes. In addition, there is another game abroad on Sunday morning, reducing this week’s main slate to 10 contests. Two games stick out like a sore thumb on this slate, boasting game totals north of 50. They’re the most exciting contests to invest in this week. Let’s take a look at the most desirable DFS options at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 5 while noting which games and teams to fade.

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Week 5 Matchups

Game: Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: ATL -2.0

Over/Under: 41.5 Points

Texans Analysis: The matchup isn't easy for Houston's wideouts, but C.J. Stroud gives them a chance to succeed because he's playing brilliantly in his rookie campaign. To that point, Nico Collins is having a breakout campaign. The third-year wideout is fifth in receiving yards per game (107.0), tied for third in receiving touchdowns (three) and averages 5.5 receptions per game.

Tank Dell is also thriving in his rookie campaign. He's averaged 4.3 receptions per game and 77.7 receiving yards per game with two receiving touchdowns since emerging as a full-time starter in Week 2. The matchup won't do them any favors this week, but Collins and Dell have big-play and big-game upside.

Dameon Pierce has been a disappointment this year and suffered the most from Houston's injuries along the offensive line. Nevertheless, according to RotoViz's pace app, the Texans have run on 48% of their 82 plays in a neutral game script, and the offensive line might get critical reinforcements to fortify the offensive line.

Pierce can benefit from the offensive tendencies and the improved health of Houston's offensive line as the club's leading running back. The second-year running back has a 51% snap share for the year but 54% and 59% in Houston's wins in the previous two weeks. The sophomore has also handled 66.7% of Houston's backfield's rush share and leads the Texans' running backs in routes (59), targets (11), receptions (eight) and receiving yards (68). Thus, Pierce is worth speculating on in DFS this week and is the cheapest running back at both DFS outlets I am interested in.

Houston's defense is a steal at FD and faces a woefully inept quarterback. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Desmond Ridder has the fifth-highest sack rate (11.9%) among qualified quarterbacks in 2023. Ridder is also Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) lowest-graded passer among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks this season and is tied for the most Turnover-Worthy Plays (10).

Falcons Analysis: Bijan Robinson has played over 75% of Atlanta's offensive snaps in the previous two weeks and cleared 70% in every game except his professional debut. The rookie has also run the third-most routes (105) among running backs this season. As a result of the superb workload, Robinson averages 113.0 scrimmage yards per game, 13.3 rushes per game and 4.8 receptions per game with one touchdown. He's a game-script-proof running back and projects as the RB1, with the RB1 value score (RB1V) at FD and the RB2V at DK.

Since he posted a bagel in Week 1, Jonnu Smith has averaged 5.0 receptions per game and 59.7 receiving yards per game. He was targeted at least six times in each of those contests and tallied an impressive 2.18 Y/RR and 24.3% targets per route run. Apparently, head coach Arthur Smith still knows how to get the most out of the athletically gifted veteran tight end, making him the best sub-$3,000 tight end on DK.

Game: Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

Spread: DET -9.5

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

Panthers Analysis: Carolina's offense lacks juice, and Bryce Young isn't elevating them. Adam Thielen has come through, but there are better ways to allocate cap space than using it on the veteran wide receiver this week.

Lions Analysis: The Lions love playing hardnosed, punch you in the mouth football. They've rushed on 49% of their 166 plays in a neutral game script and bumped it to 57% when leading by at least eight points.

David Montgomery can feast as Detroit's featured running back. This season, he had a 79% and 71% snap share in his two healthy contests. Furthermore, in the veteran's two fully healthy contests this year (Week 1 and Week 4), Montgomery had 53 rush attempts (77.9% backfield rush share), 195 rushing yards, 12 missed tackles forced and four rushing touchdowns.

Montgomery is unlikely to meet much resistance as a runner this week. According to The 33rd Team, running backs average 119.8 rushing yards per game at 4.9 yards per carry with seven touchdowns (six rushing and one receiving) against the Panthers in 2023. Montgomery's salary at FD isn't inviting, but he's a sweet pick at DK.

Among tight ends targeted at least 12 times this year, Sam LaPorta is second in PFF's receiving grade, tied for 10th in Yards After the Catch per Reception (5.0 YAC/REC) and first in Yards per Route Run (2.30 Y/RR). The rookie is also tied for third in receptions (22) and first in receiving yards (242) at the position and has a touchdown reception. LaPorta is balling out and is a stellar selection.

Game: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: TEN -1.0

Over/Under: 42.5 Points

Titans Analysis: The Colts should be excited about Anthony Richardson. Still, he's a rookie quarterback and learning on the fly. Richardson is tied for the 12th-highest sack rate (7.7%) among qualified quarterbacks this season. The rookie is also midpack in Turnover-Worthy Play rate (3.2 TWP%). Therefore, the Titans are the best punt defense on DK and a useful pivot from the Texans in GPPs at FD.

Colts Analysis: In 163 plays in a neutral game script this year, the Colts are playing at the second-fastest pace (24.7 seconds per snap) and passing at a 59% clip. They'll likely let Richardson cut it loose against a pass-funnel defense. This year, Tennessee's opponents have passed on 64% of their 192 plays in a neutral game script.

The probable high pass rate this week helps make Josh Downs a compelling punt at DK. Downs is third on the Colts in routes (130). Yet, he's second on the club in targets (27), receptions (17) and receiving yards (158).

The rookie wideout also has an 83.8% slot rate that should treat him well this week. Per The 33rd Team, the Titans have allowed the seventh-most DK (25.7) and the seventh-most FD (19.9) points per game to slot wide receivers.

Game: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins

Spread: MIA -11.0

Over/Under: 48.5 Points

Giants Analysis: The Giants are a mess and will almost certainly be in a negative game script most of the contest against Miami's explosive offense. Therefore, two of their young wideouts are intriguing selections at bargain salaries.

Wan'Dale Robinson is a no-brainer punt at DK, owning the WR1V. He jumped Parris Campbell on the depth chart last week and ran the second-most routes (32) among New York's wide receivers. The diminutive slot wideout had a solid-if-unspectacular five receptions for 40 yards and one run for seven yards in Week 4. Additionally, Robinson has a 24.1% target per route run rate in his career and an 86.0% slot rate this year.

Robinson has an average or better matchup against the Dolphins from the slot. They've allowed the 12th-most DK (21.6) and the 14th-most FD (16.8) points per game to slot wide receivers this year.

Jalin Hyatt is a contrarian GPP pick at both DFS outlets. Hyatt ran a season-high 30 routes last week, the third-most among Big Blue's wide receivers. He's a vertical weapon with elite speed, and Miami's defense has allowed quarterbacks to complete seven of 20 pass attempts that traveled at least 20 air yards for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers become more impressive if you remove Mac Jones's pitiful zero completions on five deep pass attempts in Week 2.

The matchup is also sweet for Hyatt from the perimeter. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most DK (18.6) and the seventh-most FD (14.7) points per game to perimeter wideouts.

Dolphins Analysis: Obviously, the Dolphins are the A-side of this game. It's a perfect bounce-back spot for Tua Tagovailoa. The lefty is PFF's highest-graded passer among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks this year. Tagovailoa is also first in passing yards per game (326.5) and Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (9.33 ANY/A) and tied for second in passing touchdowns (nine).

He can pick apart Big Blue's blitz-happy offense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the G-Men have the second-highest blitz rate (49.6%) but are tied for the ninth-lowest pressure rate (20.8%). The most significant threat to Tua's production this week is the game getting out of hand and Mike McDaniel taking the air out of the ball. Regardless, Tagovailoa can post DFS-friendly numbers before he gets an early hook or the Dolphins salt the game away on the ground.

The top weapon in Miami's passing attack is apparent. Tyreek Hill is a monster in Miami's explosive offense. He's third in air yards (535) and eighth in target share (29.6%). Predictably, his mouthwatering underlying stats have resulted in top-shelf production. He's eighth in receptions per game (7.0), third in receiving yards per game (117.5) and tied for first in touchdown receptions (four). The hyper-productive Hill is projected as the WR1 at both DFS providers, with the WR2V at DK and the WR1V at FD.

The running game has a new top dog, even if he's sharing time with another speedster. De'Von Achane has had more rush attempts (26 versus 20) and routes (39 compared to 34) than Raheem Mostert in the previous two weeks. Achane also made the most of his opportunities by producing eye-popping numbers. The rookie is first among running backs with at least 15 attempts in yards before contact per attempt (7.3 YBCON/ATT) and yards after contact per attempt (4.2 YACON/ATT). In that two-game heater, Achane ripped off 304 rushing yards, 11.7 yards per attempt, four rushing touchdowns, seven receptions, 49 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns.

Game: New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots

Spread: NE -1.0

Over/Under: 40.0 Points

Saints Analysis: This game will probably be ugly. So, the Saints DST is a useful pick. Jones is a train wreck tied for the most Turnover-Worthy Plays (10).

Patriots Analysis: The Patriots are slow, lack explosion and have a struggling quarterback leading them. It's not a DFS-friendly setup.

Game: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: BAL -4.0

Over/Under: 38.0 Points

Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson can make me look foolish for suggesting fading him this week. Still, Baltimore's offense hasn't been the uptempo, pass-happy offense promised in the offseason, and Jackson's elite rushing ability has helped him overcome it.

However, Jackson has struggled against Mike Tomlin's Steelers in his career, and a post about a betting trend posted on X caught my eye.

Steelers Analysis: The Steelers' offense is a joke, and Kenny Pickett is banged up. One fan is so disgruntled with offensive coordinator Matt Canada that he let others at an AEW show and anyone watching on television know it.

Until the Steelers heed the angry fan's advice, Pittsburgh will unlikely solve their offensive woes and be a source of DFS usefulness.

Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: CIN -3.0

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

Bengals Analysis: The Bengals are tied with the Giants for the fewest yards per play (4.0) this season, and Tee Higgins injured his ribs last week. I need to see signs of life before suggesting them in DFS again.

Cardinals Analysis: Among wideouts targeted at least 15 times this year, Michael Wilson is 15th in Yards per Route Run (2.30 Y/RR) and has the sixth-deepest average depth of target (16.0-yard aDOT) per PFF. The rookie has cleared 55 receiving yards in three consecutive games and exploded for seven receptions, 76 receiving yards and two touchdowns last week after hauling in two passes for 86 yards in Week 3.

Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: PHI -4.5

Over/Under: 50.5 Points

Eagles Analysis: On 180 plays in a neutral game script this year, the Eagles have passed 51% of the time and rushed at a 49% clip. However, the Rams' opponents have passed on 64% of their 179 plays in a neutral game script this year.

Nick Sirianni will change his play-calling tendencies to take advantage of matchups. So, the Eagles could pass more this week. Unfortunately, Jalen Hurts hasn't played at an MVP caliber this year after doing so last year. Still, he's produced multiple touchdowns in his previous three games, bested 25 rushing yards every game and cleared 275 passing yards in his last two contests. Hurts is projected as the QB2 this week.

The top stacking option with Hurts is apparent. A.J. Brown is Philadelphia's No. 1 wideout so far in 2023. DeVonta Smith is talented enough for the top honor to ebb and flow throughout the year. Still, after four weeks, Brown is second in the NFL in air yards (559) and target share (35.5%). Brown has averaged 7.3 receptions per game and 103.5 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns this season.

The Eagles stumbled into a dynamic backfield upgrade after opening the year with him serving as the backup. In three subsequent weeks, D'Andre Swift had snap shares of 75%, 54% and 63%. Moreover, in the last two games after Kenneth Gainwell returned from a one-week absence, Swift has toted the rock 30 times for 186 rushing yards and a touchdown versus 18 for 59 and zero from Gainwell. Swift also ran 40 routes compared to 35 for Gainwell. Thus, Swift is the backfield's headliner, with a dash of Gainwell sprinkled in.

Swift is aided by a butt-kicking offensive line. Per PFF, the Eagles are the best run-blocking team in the NFL this season. The elite run blocking has helped the dynamic Swift post a blistering 4.2 YBCON/ATT. He's a home-run-hitting back in an ideal ecosystem.

Rams Analysis: The Rams use a pass-happy offense, and the Eagles have a pass-funnel defense. Los Angeles has passed on 63% of their 182 plays in a neutral game script this year. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's opponents have passed on 67% of their 174 plays in a neutral game script in 2023.

It should be wheels up for LA's wideouts in a pass-heavy attack, especially since the matchup is mouthwatering. First, the Eagles have allowed the third-most DK (21.6) and FD (17.3) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Second, Philadelphia has allowed the fifth-most DK (26.1) and the sixth-most FD (20.1) points per game to slot wideouts.

The looming question is if Cooper Kupp will play this week. He's logged full practices, and Jay Glazer hinted at Kupp returning this week on FOX last week.

Kupp could suffer another setback. Yet, if the Rams believe he's healthy enough to play, it's worth firing bullets on him in GPPs because of his unreal production with Matthew Stafford. Kupp has played 29 games with Stafford in his career. In those games, he had 250 receptions (8.6 per game), 3,238 receiving yards (111.7 per game) and 29 touchdowns (28 receiving and one rushing).

If the veteran superstar returns, Puka Nacua will have to cede some looks to Kupp. Fortunately, he has plenty of wiggle room to slide and still succeed. Nacua is seventh in air yards (476), third in yards after the catch (168) and fourth in target share (32.5%), resulting in the most receptions per game (9.8), the second-most receiving yards per game (125.3) and one touchdown reception. He's more appealing if Kupp is inactive but is still a superb GPP pick, even if his veteran teammate makes his season debut this week.

Tutu Atwell's outlook is murkier if Kupp is back. Nonetheless, Atwell has run the most routes (170) this year. In addition, the tiny speedster has aligned wide on 57.3% of his passing snaps. So, he might have a chance to stay on the field in three-wideout sets. Atwell averages 5.5 receptions per game for 67.5 receiving yards per game and has one receiving touchdown, two rush attempts and 27 rushing yards in 2023.

Finally, he can get home even in a part-time role because of his vertical usage. According to PFF, Atwell has an 11.6-yard aDOT and seven targets that traveled 20-plus yards this season.

Game: New York Jets at Denver Broncos

Spread: DEN -1.5

Over/Under: 43.0 Points

Jets Analysis: Zach Wilson was sharp last week. It might not be coincidental he got rid of the ball faster than usual last week. Per PFF, Wilson took 2.73 seconds to throw in Week 4, tying for the fifth-fastest time to throw in a game in his career.

I'd typically need to see another week from Wilson before trusting him in DFS lineups, but he's facing a historically bad defense this week.

Denver has coughed up the second-most passing yards per game (285.5) and the most passing touchdowns (13) this year. Wilson could turn into a pumpkin, but it's also a golden opportunity to build on an encouraging start, making it enticing to roll the dice on him at his punt salary.

Garrett Wilson is a target sponge, ranking third in target share (32.7%). The only knock on Wilson was being saddled with lousy quarterback play. So, if his third-year quarterback can string together a second consecutive good showing, the second-year wideout can ball out in a cushy matchup.

Denver has allowed the fifth-most DK (20.8) and the fourth-most FD (16.7) points per game to perimeter wideouts. They've also yielded more points per game to the slot at both providers. So, Wilson can feast when he's moved into the slot.

Tyler Conklin is second on the Jets in targets (18), second in receptions (13) and third in receiving yards (136) this season and has a good matchup. The Broncos have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game (58.8) and tied for the second-most touchdown receptions (three) coughed up to tight ends in 2023.

Broncos Analysis: Gang Green's defense clowned Josh Allen (the current betting favorite for the MVP award) in Week 1 and gave the reigning NFL MVP fits last week. They're not to be trifled with in DFS.

Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: KC -4.0

Over/Under: 52.5 Points

Chiefs Analysis: This is the most exciting game to stack in DFS this week. It should be fast-paced and DFS-friendly. The Chiefs are tied for the 10th-fastest pace (27.3 seconds per snap), and the Vikings are playing at the fourth-fastest pace (25.9 seconds per snap) in neutral game scripts this season.

It's a rebound spot for Patrick Mahomes against Minnesota's lousy defense. Minnesota has the fourth-lowest pressure rate (17.1%) despite blitzing at the highest rate (57.0%). Brian Flores's insistence on blitzing and not getting home will get picked apart by the reigning MVP.

Mahomes's top option in the passing game remains the same this year. Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown or reached 60 receiving yards in all three games he's suited up this season, accomplishing both in Week 3 when he had seven receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown. The future Hall-of-Famer has been targeted on a silly 31.0% of his routes this season. The best might still be to come for Kelce this year as he gets healthier, possibly beginning this week in a projected shootout.

Something could be brewing in Kansas City's wide receiving corps. Rashee Rice ran only one less route than Skyy Moore last week, possibly signaling a forthcoming change on the depth chart. The rookie wide receiver has been targeted on 32.1% of his routes and hauled in multiple receptions in every game this year. Furthermore, his 6.8-yard aDOT is similar to JuJu Smith-Schuster's 7.1-yard aDOT in 2022, and Smith-Schuster was relatively productive for the Chiefs last year. Could Rice emerge in a similar role as a jumbo slot (65.5% slot rate this year)? That might be a possibility and could start as soon as this week.

Justin Watson is fourth on the Chiefs in routes (86) and was tied for the most among wideouts (22) in Week 4. He's not a target hog. Instead, the speedy wideout is a shot-play specialist, sporting a 21.9-yard aDOT and netting six targets that traveled at least 20 air yards this season. Finally, Watson's aligned wide on 73.4% of his passing snaps, and the Vikings have allowed the most DK (30.7) and FD (24.9) points per game to perimeter wideouts this year.

The running game can succeed this week, too. It's headlined by a hard-charging second-year running back. Isiah Pacheco had a season-high 60% snap share last week. During that contest, he had 20 rush attempts (76.9% backfield rush share) for 115 yards and a touchdown, adding three receptions for 43 yards on 15 routes. Interestingly, Jerick McKinnon ran fewer routes (12) than Pacheco in Week 4.

The matchup might be pretty good, as well. The Vikings were crushed by the only good running backs they faced this year when Philadelphia's running backs steamrolled them in Week 2. So, Pacheco is my favorite value running back this week at both DFS providers.

Vikings Analysis: The Vikings are the most pass-happy team in the NFL in neutral game scripts this year, passing on 66% of their 179 plays in a neutral game script. Teams have also chosen to attack the Chiefs through the air on 57% of their 138 plays in a neutral game script this year.

Kirk Cousins is posting excellent numbers in this environment. Cousins is third in passing yards per game (303.5) and first in touchdown passes (11) this season. He'll likely be in a negative game script as an underdog and cut it loose from start to finish.

In a shocker to no one, Justin Jefferson is eviscerating the competition this year. He's fourth in air yards (521), sixth in target share (30.7%), tied for third in receptions per game (8.3), first in receiving yards per game (135.8) and tied for third in touchdown receptions (three). It's not a bold take, but Jefferson is my favorite wideout on this slate.

There's another viable option for speculative gamers. Inexplicably, Jordan Addison has run fewer routes than K.J. Osborn every week. Yet, Minnesota's first-round pick in this year's NFL Draft has outproduced the veteran and can overtake him at a moment's notice.

Addison had a disappearing act last week, snapping three straight contests of 50-plus receiving yards to begin his career. The rookie wideout also scored long touchdowns in each of his first two games. Addison has flashed his potential and could skyrocket this week if he overtakes Osborn in two-wideout sets.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.