This week, I want to talk about Commanders quarterback Sam Howell. In Week 6, Howell faced Atlanta, who at the time were (tied for) last place in sacks per game, with an average of just 1.0. They sacked him 5 times, doubling their season total. In Week 7, Howell faced the Giants, who at the time were in last place in sacks per game, with an average of just 0.8. They sacked him 6 times, more than doubling their season total. The all-time record for sacks taken in a season is held by David Carr, who took 76 in the 2002 season. Howell is on pace to shatter that record with 97 (that would be 91 if the season was still only 16 games). Howell is truly the king of sacks. It’s not rare for players to be on pace for all-time records at this point in the season – it’s hard to sustain a record pace through every matchup for an entire season. But Howell has already faced the two worst pass rushes in the NFL and come away with 11 sacks. If you have the opportunity to start literally any defense against the Commanders in fantasy, it’s downright irresponsible not to.
Even with that diversion, I’m not going to leave you with out some recommendations for defenses worth stashing for the next few weeks. With four teams on bye again in Week 9, including the 49ers, it’s worth planning ahead.
- Indianapolis (vs NO this week, then @ CAR Week 9 and @ NE Week 10) – I’m not really interested in starting them against the Saints this week given all the other options, but they get two weeks of good matchups afterward.
- Las Vegas (@ DET this week, then vs NYG Week 9 and vs NYJ Week 10) – They got burned by Tyson Bagent exceeding all expectations last week, but that doesn’t change the fact that both New York teams are excellent matchups in Weeks 9 and 10.
- LA Chargers (vs CHI this week, then @ NYJ Week 9) – Whether or not the Bears are a good matchup this week depends on the extent to which you think Tyson Bagent is the real deal, but the Jets in Week 9 are definitely a good matchup.
- New England (@ MIA this week, then vs WAS Week 9 and vs IND Week 10) – I don’t need to tell you not to start anyone against Miami, but I spent a whole paragraph telling you that you absolutely have to start whoever is facing the Commanders, and the Patriots get that honor in Week 9. The Colts in Week 10 are a solid matchup as well.
- NY Giants (vs NYJ this week, then @LV, @DAL, @WAS, vs NE) – The Giants get two good matchups this week and next. If you use them now, then they’re probably worth holding for their Week 11 and 12 matchups with Washington and New England.
Week 8 D/ST Projections
This Week is a weird one, in a good way. An oasis in a desert of bye weeks, all 32 teams are playing and 16 of them have implied point totals of 20 or lower. In a typical week we would see only 5 or 6 teams with projections that low, so there’s really a wealth of good options this week. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | PHI | @WAS | Sam Howell | 18.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 7.58 | 92% |
| 2 | ATL | @TEN | Malik Willis | 17 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 7.54 | 13% |
| 3 | SEA | CLE | Deshaun Watson | 18.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 7.22 | 69% |
| 4 | NYJ | @NYG | Tyrod Taylor | 16.75 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 7.07 | 59% |
| 5 | BUF | TB | Baker Mayfield | 16.75 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 7.04 | 100% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 6 | KC | @DEN | Russell Wilson | 19.25 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 6.98 | 69% |
| 7 | NYG | NYJ | Zach Wilson | 19.75 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 6.87 | 3% |
| 8 | HOU | @CAR | Bryce Young | 20 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 6.83 | 4% |
| 9 | SF | CIN | Joe Burrow | 20 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 6.70 | 100% |
| 10 | DAL | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 19.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.64 | 93% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better, But Still OK To Start Tier | ||||||||
| 11 | TEN | ATL | Desmond Ridder | 19.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 6.56 | 2% |
| 12 | MIA | NE | Mac Jones | 18.75 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6.46 | 48% |
| 13 | BAL | @ARI | Joshua Dobbs | 17.75 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 6.40 | 85% |
| 14 | JAC | @PIT | Kenny Pickett | 19.75 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6.37 | 26% |
| 15 | LAC | CHI | Tyson Bagent | 19 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 6.16 | 7% |
| 16 | DET | LV | Jimmy Garoppolo | 18.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 6.09 | 56% |
| The You Can Definitely Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 17 | CLE | @SEA | Geno Smith | 21.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.01 | 81% |
| 18 | NO | @IND | Gardner Minshew II | 22.25 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5.97 | 76% |
| 19 | GB | MIN | Kirk Cousins | 20.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.85 | 27% |
| 20 | IND | NO | Derek Carr | 21.25 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5.55 | 11% |
| 21 | PIT | JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 22.25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.35 | 57% |
| 22 | CAR | HOU | C.J. Stroud | 23 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5.20 | 5% |
| 23 | MIN | @GB | Jordan Love | 21.75 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 5.16 | 7% |
| 24 | TB | @BUF | Josh Allen | 25.25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.16 | 56% |
| 25 | WAS | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 25 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4.97 | 60% |
| 26 | CIN | @SF | Brock Purdy | 25.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4.94 | 27% |
| 27 | ARI | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 26.25 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 4.93 | 1% |
| 28 | LAR | @DAL | Dak Prescott | 26 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 4.66 | 56% |
| 29 | CHI | @LAC | Justin Herbert | 27.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.54 | 3% |
| 30 | LV | @DET | Jared Goff | 26.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4.46 | 63% |
| 31 | DEN | KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 26.75 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.17 | 25% |
| 32 | NE | @MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 28.25 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.01 | 30% |
Matchups
- PHI @ WAS: Sam Howell makes even the worst defenses look amazing thanks to his historic sack rate – now imagine what the best defensive line in the NFL is going to do.
- ATL @ TEN: The Falcons’ defense proved themselves capable in a good-but-not-great matchup against the Buccaneers last week, and the outlook for this week is even better. Before the Titans’ Week 7 bye, Ryan Tannhill suffered an ankle injury in Week 6, forcing backup Malik Willis to take the reins. Tannehill is not expected to be back this week, so we should see Willis again. The Titans will continue rely heavily on their run game, but it’s encouraging that in Week 6 Willis took 4 sacks despite only attempting 5 passes.
- SEA vs CLE: Last week, Browns QB Deshaun Watson returned to action after being sidelined since Week 3 with a rotator cuff injury in his throwing shoulder. Watson left the game to be evaluated for a concussion, but appeared to stay out due to his shoulder. If Watson misses this week, we’ll see PJ Walker again. Cleveland will need to rely on their run game with either quarterback, which is good news for the Seahawks, who have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
- NYJ @ NYG: Daniel Jones has been dealing with a neck injury since Week 5, with Tyrod Taylor starting in his stead. Taylor has played well enough to create some controversy over who should be the starter, but that says a lot more about Jones than it does about Taylor. The Jets’ defense is worth starting in most matchups, and this one is above average with either quarterback.
- BUF vs TB: Baker Mayfield showed up on the injury report Monday with a knee issue. I don’t know how serious it is, but with a short week due to a Thursday night game, it’s possible we see backup Kyle Trask instead. Either way this is a good matchup for the Bills, who have been one of the better fantasy defenses this year, despite the upset in New England last week.
- KC @ DEN: The Kansas City Chiefs hold the longest active win streak against a single team, with 16 consecutive wins against the division “rival” Broncos. The dysfunctional Broncos have a tendency to play to the level of their competition, so there’s a chance we see a decent offensive showing. But that would also come with a high likelihood of sacks and interceptions as the Broncos try to keep up with KC’s pop star-blessed offense.
- NYG vs NYJ: The Giants were able to take advantage against a quarterback who sacks himself in Sam Howell last week, and Jets QB Zach Wilson is in that category too. There is some risk here because the Giants do suck, but not as much as Wilson.
- HOU @ CAR: The future may still be bright for Bryce Young, but the present sure is grim as the Panthers sit at 0-6, with Young starting five of those games and averaging more than 3 sacks per game. The present and future both seem bright for the Texans, who are coming off a bye and have finished as a top-10 fantasy defense in 3 of their last 4 games.
- SF vs CIN: It has not been smooth sailing for the 49ers defense lately, while they deal with the wheels falling off on offense. They’re still one of the better real-world defenses in the league, and they face a Bengals team that has been inconsistent at best this year. 20 points may seem like a low implied point total for Joe Burrow and the boys, but they’ve only reach that mark twice in six games this year.
- DAL vs LAR: Like the 49ers, the Cowboys are a great defense in a matchup that isn’t particularly good. It’s not bad enough that you have to bench them, but it something to consider if you have the bench space and access to one of my top-5 defenses.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio