Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Jaguars vs. Saints.
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
- NO -1.5, O/U 39.5
- Jaguars vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Jacksonville’s neutral pace (14th) remains decent, but their neutral passing rate has been vaporized. The Jaguars now have the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
- New Orleans continues to astonish as they rank fifth in neutral pace and ninth-best in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence (knee) was able to practice on a limited basis on Tuesday. His status feels like a coin flip this week that could be carried up to game time. Lawrence has played much better this season than his QB18 ranking in fantasy points per game would suggest. He ranks eighth in passing grade and big-time throw rate while also sitting at 12th in adjusted completion rate. Because of quarterback injuries and byes this week, if Lawrence plays, you are likely starting him, but I’m not telling you to feel great about it. New Orleans has held quarterbacks to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game, the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, and the second-lowest passer rating. If C.J. Beathard draws the start, I would not be plugging him into my lineup considering this matchup. Week 7 Positional Value: Borderline QB1
Derek Carr: Carr has been all or nothing this season. Among 32 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks second in deep ball rate, but he is also second in checkdown rate. Insane. Carr ranks 21st in passing grade, 24th in yards per attempt, and 22nd in highly accurate throw rate. The Jaguars utilize zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate (78.2%). Against zone, Carr has the 11th-best passer rating while also ranking 17th in fantasy points per dropback. Carr has QB1 upside this week with a matchup with this Jacksonville pass funnel defense. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Carr will gobble up passing yards with deep shots this week if he can connect. Jacksonville has given up the third-most deep passing yards per game, along with the second-highest deep-adjusted completion rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Week 7 Positional Value: Borderline QB1
Running Backs
Travis Etienne: Etienne has played at least 80% of the snaps in four of his six games played. He has averaged 22.3 touches and 103.9 total yards. Among 52 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 23rd in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Etienne has also seen a bump in pass game usage this season as the team’s workhorse. He is seventh in raw target volume, 14th in target share, and 11th in YPRR among 47 qualifying backs. New Orleans has fielded an above-average run defense holding backs to the 12th-lowest explosive run rate while also ranking 16th in missed tackles allowed per attempt and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. There’s an avenue for Etienne to smash in this matchup with consideration to the Jaguar’s run game scheme. New Orleans looks strong in most run defense metrics, but they have given up the tenth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Etienne 54% gap). Week 7 Positional Value: RB1
Tank Bigsby: Bigsby has only two games with at least 20% of the snaps played. He is averaging 3.2 touches and 8.2 total yards. Bigsby is a stash only. Week 7 Positional Value: Stash
Alvin Kamara: Kamara has played at least 75% of the snaps in two of his three games played while averaging 25 touches and 95 total yards. Kamara’s role in this offense has been insane. He has played only three games, but he ranks fifth in targets among running backs while also sitting in first in target share (21.6%). He is 21st among 64 qualifying backs in yards per route run (YPRR). Among 52 qualified backs, Kamara ranks 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 48th in yards after contact per attempt. It’s an understatement to say that his tackle-breaking ability has vanished. His line has done a great job at getting him room to operate, as he is 13th in yards before contact per attempt. Kamara will fight an uphill battle this week against a run defense that has kept backs in check with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-best stuff rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Jacksonville has given up the second-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (2.58). 80.8% of Kamara’s runs have been on zone plays. Week 7 Positional Value: Volume-based RB1
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley: Ridley has a 20.2% target share, a 36.8% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 25.3% first-read share. Over the last two weeks, his first-read share has been strong (34.9%). Ridley is tied with Zay Jones for the team lead with five end-zone targets. This could be another down week for Ridley, who will run about 86% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (53.6% catch rate and 65.6 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (56.3% catch rate and 62.5 passer rating). The Saints have allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points to perimeter wide receivers. Week 7 Positional Value: WR2/3
Christian Kirk: Kirk leads the team with a 22.1% target share and 26.0% first-read share. Kirk has churned out 1.91 YPRR with a 26.8% air-yard share. Kirk is a distant third on the team, with only two red-zone targets. Kirk should lead the Jaguars’ passing attack this week with the best corner matchup on the board for Jacksonville. Kirk will run about 72% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (62.7% catch rate and 98.5 passer rating). Taylor has allowed the most receiving touchdowns and tenth-highest yards per snap among 48 qualifying slot corners. New Orleans has given up the 11th-most PPR points to slot receivers. Week 7 Positional Value: WR2
Zay Jones: Jones has been ruled out (knee).
Chris Olave: Olave has a team-leading 24.1% target share with a 40.8% air-yard share. He has produced 1.92 YPRR with a 31.4% first-read share. Olave ranks second among wide receivers in deep targets and deep air yards. If Carr is looking to wind up deep, Olave and Shaheed will be the focal points. Olave will run about half of his routes against Tre Herdon (80.8% catch rate and 131.6 passer rating). Herndon has allowed the 13th-highest yards per snap and fourth-highest passer rating among 48 qualifying slot corners. Olave has two 100-yard receiving games this season. I expect him to add a third to his 2023 resume this week. Week 7 Positional Value: WR1
Michael Thomas: Thomas has commanded a 20.5% target share, a 25.2% air-yard share, and a 25.7% first-read share while producing 1.62 YPRR. Thomas could fade into the background this week with how much zone Jacksonville deploys (78.2%). Against zone, Thomas has seen his target share drop to 15.8% and his first-read share decline to 20% as Rashid Shaheed eats into his volume against zone. Thomas does lead the team with six red zone targets. He’ll need to score this week to save his fantasy day likely. Week 7 Positional Value: WR4
Rashid Shaheed: Love zone coverage? Hate defending the deep ball? If a secondary can answer “Yes” to both of these questions, then we likely see a Shaheed blow-up game. This was the case against Tennessee and Houston, where Shaheed logged at least 85 receiving yards and scored in each game. Against zone, Shaheed has a 12.1% target share, a 26.0% air-yard share, and 2.21 YPRR. Shaheed ranks seventh in deep targets. Among 108 qualifying receivers, he ranks 30th in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage. Shaheed saw 63% of his routes from the slot last week. Considering the matchup with Tre Herndon (80.8% catch rate and 131.6 passer rating), we could see this happen again in Week 7. Week 7 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2 upside in Week 7
Tight Ends
Evan Engram: Engram is the TE6 in fantasy. Among 36 qualifying tight ends, he ranks fifth in first-read share, seventh in target share, and tenth in YPRR. Engram’s biggest issues are his low aDOT role (4.0, third-lowest) and his lack of any red zone usage (zero red zone targets). Temper your expectations for Engram this week against a defense that has held tight ends to the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game and third-fewest receiving yards. Week 7 Positional Value: Borderline TE1
Taysom Hill: Hill is coming off a week where he played a season-high 60% of the snaps with a 16% target share. He finished the game with seven grabs and 49 receiving yards. Hill had 85% of his snaps as an inline tight end or slot/perimeter receiving option. Hill has generated only 0.76 YPRR. Hill has one red zone target and six red zone rushing attempts. This is a favorable matchup for the Saint’s Swiss army knife. Jacksonville has bled out the eighth-highest fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Week 7 Positional Value: Borderline TE1
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*