Last weekend’s Bijan Robinson fiasco had a lot of fantasy managers madder than wet hens.
Bijan barely played in Atlanta’s 16-13 victory over Tampa Bay, logging 11 snaps and getting a single 3-yard carry. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, already a bane to fantasy managers everywhere, revealed after the game that Bijan had been feeling ill since Saturday.
League policy requires teams to report player illnesses that might affect their availability for games. Gamblers and fantasy managers want to know these things, and it’s in the NFL’s best interest to be transparent about player health. The league is reportedly looking into the matter.
Bijan’s stakeholders might not have started him had they known he was sick and at risk of not getting his normal usage. (His so-called “normal” usage still isn’t what Bijan investors would like it to be, but never mind.)
I have my own tale of woe regarding L’affaire Bijan.
In the Chicago Media League, a 12-team superflex league that includes a bunch of fantasy-industry folks who live in the Windy City, I was facing my FantasyPros colleague Sam Hoppen. Both of our teams were 3-3.
Not only do I have Bijan on my roster, but I also have his backup, Tyler Allgeier. I started Bijan, of course. I was also thinking about starting Allgeier in a flex spot since my team was hit hard by the six-team bye week and I had limited flex options. Not wanting to limit my scoring potential by starting two RBs from the same team, I chose to start Kenneth Gainwell instead of Allgeier. Had I known Bijan was ill, I would have started Allgeier.
Last weekend’s Bijan Robinson fiasco had a lot of fantasy managers madder than wet hens.
Bijan barely played in Atlanta’s 16-13 victory over Tampa Bay, logging 11 snaps and getting a single 3-yard carry. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, already a bane to fantasy managers everywhere, revealed after the game that Bijan had been feeling ill since Saturday.
League policy requires teams to report player illnesses that might affect their availability for games. Gamblers and fantasy managers want to know these things, and it’s in the NFL’s best interest to be transparent about player health. The league is reportedly looking into the matter.
Bijan’s stakeholders might not have started him had they known he was sick and at risk of not getting his normal usage. (His so-called “normal” usage still isn’t what Bijan investors would like it to be, but never mind.)
I have my own tale of woe regarding L’affaire Bijan.
In the Chicago Media League, a 12-team superflex league that includes a bunch of fantasy-industry folks who live in the Windy City, I was facing my FantasyPros colleague Sam Hoppen. Both of our teams were 3-3.
Not only do I have Bijan on my roster, but I also have his backup, Tyler Allgeier. I started Bijan, of course. I was also thinking about starting Allgeier in a flex spot since my team was hit hard by the six-team bye week and I had limited flex options. Not wanting to limit my scoring potential by starting two RBs from the same team, I chose to start Kenneth Gainwell instead of Allgeier. Had I known Bijan was ill, I would have started Allgeier.
Allgeier scored 12.7 fantasy points. Gainwell finished with 7.3. I lost by 3 points.
So, no, I’m not sending Arthur Smith a Christmas card this year. Even before the Bijan thing happened, I considered Smith to be an arrogant jester who’d rather show everyone his genius by calling reverses to Scotty Miller and direct snaps to KhaDarel Hodge than get the ball into the hands of Bijan, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. (But I hope Smith has a nice Christmas anyway.)
Fantasy football will turn you into an angry, bitter soul if you let it. Most of us derive more pain from the losses than pleasure from the wins. Some of us feel hatred toward the players, coaches or officials we hold responsible for our fantasy failings.
It’s no way to live.
Fantasy football is, after all, a game. Yes, there’s money and pride at stake. But this is supposed to be fun, dammit. The sport of football is enjoyable, so let’s have fun with it.
I’m trying not to dwell on the negative and to find joy in the NFL and fantasy seasons. For instance, I’m doing my best to appreciate that …
- The Dolphins are averaging nearly 35 points per game and are nearly as fun to watch as the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams.
- Fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua, who has 4.6 speed and never had a 1,000-yard season in college, is blossoming into an NFL superstar.
- Adam Thielen drank deeply from the Fountain of Youth and is pacing for a career-best season at age 33.
- Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are giving us the pleasure of watching one of the two greatest QB-TE combos of all time. (Hat tip, Tom Brady/Rob Gronkowski.)
- With more than 125 receiving yards in five consecutive games, A.J. Brown has turned into an uncoverable force of nature.
- Christian McCaffrey is on pace to score 27 touchdowns.
- Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt, two future Hall of Famers, are at the height of their powers and wrecking offenses on a weekly basis.
These things are cool regardless of whether you have any of these guys on your fantasy team(s). Savor it. This is the stuff you’ll be telling your football-loving grandkids about someday.
Don’t let Arthur Smith or anyone else steal your football joy.
As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.
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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 8 Tiers & Rankings
QUARTERBACKS
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Kirk Cousins has now played two games without injured WR Justin Jefferson. In Week 6, Cousins posted a QB24 finish, failing to capitalize on a seemingly good matchup vs. the Bears. In Week 7, Cousins posted a QB6 finish in a seemingly bad matchup against the 49ers. What should we make of that? I’m inclined to trust Cousins this week against a Green Bay pass defense that ranks 25th in DVOA and is dealing with some injuries in its secondary.
The idea of starting Desmond Ridder in a 1QB league is probably enough to put an “I just sucked on a lemon” look on your face, but hear me out. Ridder faces a Titans defense that’s giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt (fourth-highest in the league) and has a 17.2% pressure rate (fifth-lowest). The Titans’ offense probably isn’t going to be able to play keep-away from the Falcons with a combination of Will Levis and Malik Willis at QB. Ridder has averaged 19.7 fantasy points over his last three starts. Lemonade, anyone?
I’m below consensus on Sam Howell this week, and I think I have a fundamentally different view of Howell and his matchup with the Eagles than most other rankers do. Howell is QB11 in fantasy scoring, but he’s only QB15 in fantasy points per game. Against the Falcons and Giants the last two weeks, Howell has completed 55.4% of his throws and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt. He threw for 290 yards and ran for 40 more against the Eagles four weeks ago in a game the Commanders lost in overtime, 34-31 — a performance that seems to have encouraged other rankers about Howell’s outlook in the rematch. I tend to think the Eagles will adjust and make Howell’s life unpleasant on Sunday. The Eagles chased the all-time single-season sack record last year and are tied for third in sacks this year. Howell has taken a league-high 40 sacks in seven games. The Eagles have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to QBs, but they’re allowing only 6.5 yards per pass attempt, which suggests they are by no means a good matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Maybe Howell smashes this week, but I think he’s a poor percentage play for fantasy.
RUNNING BACKS
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In every game this season where the Vikings have played Super Bowl-caliber opponents — the Eagles, Chiefs and 49ers — Alexander Mattison has finished with fewer than 10 carries. It’s not because the Vikings faced negative game scripts against those high-caliber opponents. All three were one-score games, and the Vikings had a positive game script throughout their Week 7 win over the 49ers. In all other games, Mattison has had double-digit rushing attempts: 11 against the Buccaneers, 20 against the Chargers, 17 against the Panthers, 18 against the Bears. Minnesota’s Week 8 opponent, Green Bay, is assuredly not a Super Bowl contender. The Packers rank 26th in DVOA against the run and have given up the third-most fantasy points per game to RBs. Mattison is averaging 15.7 touches a game. I think he’s an appealing play this week.
Even with Roschon Johnson on track to return from a concussion, it seems unlikely he’ll completely marginalize D’Onta Foreman, who scored three touchdowns for the Bears in their demolition of the Raiders a week ago. Roschon hasn’t played more than 29 snaps in a game this season, and I suspect he’ll rotate with (or perhaps back up) Foreman this week against the Chargers. I’m ranking Foreman RB25, Roschon RB40.
Darrell Henderson stepped right into the Rams’ starting lineup and played 57% of the offensive snaps in his first game of the season. The reason he’ll continue to take a majority of snaps at running back while Kyren Williams is out is that Rams head coach Sean McVay trusts Henderson as a pass blocker. It’s that simple. That’s why Cam Akers blew up in our faces last year — well, he blew up in my face, anyway. Akers is a poor pass blocker. Henderson is a good pass blocker. As a runner, Henderson is nothing special, but he’s not terrible either. Secure touch volume gives Henderson enough fantasy value for him to be flex-worthy this week vs. a Dallas defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to RBs.
Your one-week reprieve from having to deal with the Pittsburgh backfield is over. (Sorry.) Based on what we saw in Week 6 before the Steelers went on bye, Jaylen Warren isn’t on the verge of passing up Najee Harris on the depth chart. Against the Rams in Week 6, Harris out-snapped Warren 34-27 and out-touched him 17-7. Harris also scored his first TD of the season, although Warren found the end zone, too. I have both Pittsburgh backs ranked as RB3s this week in a tough matchup vs. a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to RBs and is giving up 3.4 yards per carry to RBs.
After Browns RB Jerome Ford got hurt last week, Pierre Strong played more snaps and had more touches than Kareem Hunt in the remainder of Cleveland’s 39-38 win over Indianapolis. But that doesn’t mean Strong outranks Hunt in this backfield. Hunt has been dealing with a thigh issue, so the Browns probably wanted to be careful with him. Hunt didn’t participate in training camp because he was unsigned, so it’s smart for the Browns to judiciously manage his workload. They might do it again this week, which is why I’m conservatively ranking Hunt RB33. Strong checks in at RB41. The Cleveland RBs will face a Seattle run defense that’s been much tougher than it was last year, when the Seahawks gave up the third-most fantasy points to RBs. So far this year, the Seahawks have allowed the 14th fewest fantasy points to running backs, and their defense ranks No. 3 in DVOA against the run.
The Cardinals are messing with us, aren’t they? A lot of fantasy managers scooped up Emari Demercado on Waivers for Week 6. Demercado led the Arizona backfield in snaps that week, but he had only three touches while Keaontay Ingram had 12 and Damien Williams had nine. So much for Demercado’s fantasy value, right? Wrong. Demercado played 80% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps last week and had 13 carries and four receptions. But before you invite Demercado back into your circle of trust, consider that his 17 touches last week netted 75 yards and zero touchdowns, and that the Cardinals will face a Ravens defense that ranks No. 1 in overall DVOA and No. 7 in DVOA against the run. Your odds of getting either a touchdown or 80+ yards from scrimmage out of Demercado are probably worse than 50/50.
Singletary had a season-high 54% snap share and a season-high 12 carries for 58 yards when we last saw the Texans in Week 6. I don’t think Singletary has leapfrogged Dameon Pierce in the Texans’ backfield, but Singletary will probably get a decent number of snaps and touches this week against a league-worst Carolina run defense. The Panthers rank 32nd in DVOA against the run, have given up the second-most fantasy points per game to RBs, and are yielding 5.3 yards per carry to running backs. Pierce and Singletary are both viable lineup options this week.
WIDE RECEIVERS
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I briefly mentioned Adam Thielen in the introduction. Would you mind if I discussed him for another minute, even though he’s an obvious must-start at this point? I just find it so remarkable that I’m ranking Thielen WR10 in a week where there are no teams on bye. Thielen ranks seventh in the league with 49 receptions, and four of the six players who have more receptions than Thielen have played an extra game because they haven’t had their byes yet. Thielen is averaging 8.2 catches per game. He’s 33 years old, and I assumed he was nearly done after his efficiency numbers started getting progressively worse each year at the end of his tenure with the Vikings. Bravo, Mr. Thielen. Bravo.
In the three games since Chargers WR Mike Williams went on injured reserve, Joshua Palmer has posted stat lines of 3-77-0, 4-60-0 and 5-133-0. Those numbers don’t do Palmer full justice, as he’s had some big gains nullified by penalty during that stretch. Palmer is averaging 10.1 yards per target this season, which probably isn’t sustainable, but it speaks to how well he’s been playing. Palmer has a pleasing Week 8 matchup against a Bears pass defense that ranks 30th in DVOA. But I have Palmer ranked as a low-end WR3 because (1) Chargers WR Keenan Allen remains one of the biggest target hogs in the league, (2) Palmer hasn’t drawn more than eight targets in any game this season, and (3) Herbert has thrown only four TD passes in the three games since Williams went on IR.
Josh Downs had a season-high 125 receiving yards for the Colts last week, and the rookie from North Carolina has now scored touchdowns in two straight games. This week, the Colts play the Saints, who have a nice pair of outside cornerbacks in Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo. But their slot corner, Alontae Taylor, who’s going to be tasked with covering Downs, is giving up 0.39 fantasy points per route run into his coverage. PFF has Taylor 100th out of the 115 cornerbacks they’ve graded. This could be another nice week for Downs, who’s shown excellent chemistry with Colts QB Gardner Minshew.
You’d think the absence of the injured Zay Jones (knee) would lead to improved numbers for Calvin Ridley, since Zones vacates a small but not insignificant number of targets that have to go elsewhere. But as Ron Stewart and others have noted on Twitter, that hasn’t been the case. Ridley’s two biggest games this season — an 8-101-1 performance in Week 1 and a 7-122-0 outing in Week 5 — came when Jones was healthy and active. In the four games Jones has missed, Ridley is averaging 2.5 catches, 26.3 receiving yards and 5.4 yards per target, with one touchdown. Although Jones will be out again this week, I’m willing to defy those splits and use Ridley in a favorable matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points to WRs.
Rashee Rice has been impressive thus far in his rookie season, and he gets to play with the best pure passer in the game in Patrick Mahomes. What’s not to like? Well, his playing time leaves something to be desired. Although Rice had a season-high 59% snap share last week, there are way too many plays where Rice isn’t on the field. Only once this season has Rice drawn more than five targets in a game. He’s also scored three touchdowns on 34 targets. Touchdown rates that high tend not to be sustainable. Rice checks in at WR39 in my Week 8 rankings.
The deck is stacked against Titans QB DeAndre Hopkins in Week 8. The Titans are going to use a QB combo of Will Levis and Malik Willis — two inexperienced and unrefined passers. Hopkins will face the Falcons, who have a talented pair of outside cornerbacks in A.J. Terrell and Jeff Okudah. As good as Hopkins is, I have him ranked WR42.
TIGHT ENDS
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Time to readmit Dallas Goedert into the circle of trust. After producing only 13-88-0 in his first four games, Goedert has piled up 18-236-2 in his last three. The Eagles are throwing a lot of screen passes to Goedert, and they’re working. We’d prefer more downfield usage for a big-play tight end with career averages of 11.9 yards per catch and 8.7 yards per target, but hey, we’ll take it. Start Goedert with confidence against a Washington defense that was harsh on TEs not long ago but has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the position this year.
Derek Carr‘s struggles are working to the advantage of Taysom Hill stakeholders. Hill has enjoyed snap shares of 60% and 58% the last two weeks, and the Saints are eager to put the ball in his hands rather than rely on Carr to move the chains. On the FantasyPros Football Podcast, I have referred to Hill as fantasy football’s equivalent of an open-ended straight-flush draw in poker, because there are a lot of ways for Hill to make a big hand. In Week 6, the Mormon Missile (an actual nickname; I can’t take credit) had one rushing attempt, one pass attempt and seven receptions. Last week, Hill had five rushing attempts and four receptions. He finished TE9 in Week 6 and TE5 in Week 7. Don’t be afraid to fire him up against the Colts this week.
Zach Ertz has been placed on IR, bolstering the fantasy value of second-year Cardinals TE Trey McBride. I’m not quite ready to throw McBride into a fantasy lineup just yet, but when QB Kyler Murray comes off injured reserve to put some teeth back into the Arizona passing game, McBride will become a more appealing fantasy option.
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