Pat Fitzmaurice | Fri, Oct 20th 2023, 7:10am EDT

Fitz’s Week 7 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2023 Fantasy Football)

Fantasy football managers are facing a six-team bye week. Bye-mageddon has arrived.

Six-team bye weeks are challenging, arduous, headache-inducing … and kind of fun?

There are plenty of lineup nightmares in weeks where we have a half-dozen teams on bye at once. But you are really playing the game of fantasy football at a time like this.

During the first few weeks of the season, setting lineups isn’t a very intellectually stimulating exercise. You’re usually just starting your top-drafted players at every position, possibly making an adjustment or two based on injuries or early-season usage surprises. For the most part, it’s a paint-by-numbers exercise.

In a six-team bye week … hoo boy, the road to victory is strewn with banana peels. To avoid a wipeout, you have to be an active, attentive manager and push the right buttons.

How many holes do you have in your starting lineup for Week 7? Can they be patched with waiver pickups, or do you need to send out some trade offers to plug the leaks? If you’re going the waiver route, which players should you target, and how much should you bid?

It’s a challenging week. Fantasy football management in Week 2 or Week 3 is a game of tic-tac-toe. Fantasy football management in Week 6 is a game of Risk. Fielding a competitive lineup and winning your Week 7 matchup despite being shorthanded is akin to conquering and defending Asia in a game of Risk — neither task is a picnic, but it’s fun to take our best shot at it.

The intellectual challenge of managing a team is one of fantasy football’s greatest appeals. Hardship is inevitable in this game. Embrace it. Put that big, brawny brain to work and come up with creative ways to solve your lineup problems.

Roll up your sleeves, friends. It’s time to get to work.

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.

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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 7 Tiers & Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

After throwing six TD passes in his first two games, Jordan Love has thrown only two TD passes in his last three — along with six interceptions. But the Denver defense is an 11-man get-well card. The Broncos have yielded the most touchdown passes (14), the second-most passing yards (1,608), the highest completion percentage (76.4%), the highest yards per attempt (8.2), and the highest opponent passer rating (117.8). Despite his recent struggles, treat Love as a low-end QB1 this week.

A week ago, I encouraged you to start Jared Goff against the Buccaneers despite his troubling home/road splits. It worked out pretty well, as Goff was the QB4 on the week with 22.4 fantasy points. Once again, I think Goff is worth starting in a road game, even though the matchup against the Ravens looks slightly tougher than last week’s matchup against the Bucs. Baltimore is allowing a league-low 10.5 fantasy points per game to QBs. But Goff has been a stud this season. He’s third in passer rating (105.1), fifth in passing yardage (1,618), tied for fifth in TD passes (11) and sixth in fantasy points per game (19.9). Trust Jared Goff, and trust the play-calling of Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.

Here’s how bleak the QB position is in Week 7: One week after perhaps the worst performance of Russell Wilson‘s 12-year career — 95 passing yards, one TD, two INTs, 4.3 yards per attempt and a 46.6 passer rating — the Denver quarterback qualifies as a high-end QB2 against the Packers. Green Bay has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, but in a six-team bye week, the phrase “any port in a storm” applies.

Yes, Arizona’s Joshua Dobbs is a surprisingly respectable QB18 in fantasy scoring this season, but beware: Dobbs has completed only 49.3% of his passes in his last two games (vs. the Bengals and Rams), with two touchdowns, three interceptions and an average of 5.5 yards per attempt. The carriage may be turning into a pumpkin.

RUNNING BACKS

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Tier 7

Tier 3 looks pretty sketchy this week, and what’s scary is that Tier 3 forms the bulk of our RB2 group. As uninspiring as Alexander Mattison and Rachaad White have been so far, I can’t imagine benching either unless you play in an eight-team league. Mattison averages 16.7 touches a game, White 17.2 touches. Volume is king at the RB position, especially in a six-team bye week. Mattison and White are pretty close to auto-starts this week.

When Jonathan Taylor came off injured reserve and returned to action in Week 5, he played 10 snaps and had seven touches, while Zack Moss played 53 snaps and had 25 touches. Colts head coach Shane Steichen said Taylor would get more work in Week 6, and Steichen was true to his word. Moss played 39 snaps, Taylor 33 last week. Both had 13 touches. Eventually, Taylor will get a majority of the snaps and touches, and it could very well happen this week. I’m ranking Taylor RB15 even though he hasn’t given us any glimpses of the Jonathan Taylor Magic Show yet. Fear not. It’s coming. Moss checks in at a playable RB25. At worst, Moss figures to get a snap/touch share of around 35%-40%, and his increased usage in the passing game stabilizes his floor. Moss has never had more than 23 receptions in a season. He’s already up to 14 receptions in 2023, and last week he had six catches for 38 yards on seven targets. The matchup against the Browns is tough, but the Colts’ rank sixth in running game DVOA. The Indianapolis offensive line was a big disappointment last year, but it’s been a good unit this year. PFF has the Colts with the fifth-highest run-blocking grade so far. Both Indianapolis RBs are playable.

A.J. Dillon looked bad for the first four weeks of the season. But Dillon played well against the Raiders in Week 5 with Aaron Jones out with a hamstring injury, and now the Packers get a plum matchup against a Denver defense that’s giving up 5.9 yards per carry to running backs. Jones is expected back this week, but the Packers are known for being very conservative with their usage of players coming back from injury. Dillon always gets touches even when Jones is healthy anyway, and he could see more than his usual share. I have Dillon as a low-end RB2 this week and am well above consensus on him.

The Steelers’ Week 6 bye gave us a welcome respite from the weekly task of having to make lineup decisions involving Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. I have Warren ranked one spot ahead of Harris this week, mainly because he’s more active as a pass catcher. The Steelers face the Rams, who rank 20th in DVOA against the run. It’s not a frightening matchup by any means, but Warren and Harris are still only high-end RB3s even in a six-team bye week.

I’m a few spots below the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking with Jaleel McLaughlin, who’s my RB28. McLaughlin has looked good, and a Week 7 matchup against the Packers and their squishy run defense is appealing. But McLaughlin isn’t the lead back — that’s still Javonte Williams — and while McLaughlin appears to have leapfrogged Samaje Perine on the depth chart, Perine hasn’t gone away entirely. It’s still possible that Perine will be Denver’s primary passing-down back.

The Rams’ RB situation is a puzzle a week after the team lost starter Kyren Williams and backup Ronnie Rivers to significant injuries. The fantasy community is assuming that rookie sixth-rounder Zach Evans will be first in line for work, but the Rams also promoted Royce Freeman from their practice squad, signed Myles Gaskin from the Vikings’ practice squad, and signed Darrell Henderson to their practice squad. Some of the offseason enthusiasm we saw for Evans in the dynasty community was overblown. During his college career, Evans spent two seasons stuck in a three-man committee at TCU along with Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado. Then he transferred to Ole Miss and was quickly bypassed on the depth chart by freshman Quinshon Judkins. Rams beat writer Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic noted that Evans practiced exclusively with the scout team early in the season, so he wasn’t actually getting reps in the Rams’ offense. I have Evans ranked RB29, but I’m tapping the brakes with my expectations for him, even though he has a favorable matchup against the Steelers, who have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs. It wouldn’t be a shock if Freeman, a journeyman who had 43 receptions for the Broncos in 2019, proved to be a more valuable fantasy asset than Evans this week.

The Emari Demercado enthusiasm in Week 6 turned out to be somewhat misguided. Keaontay Ingram led the Cardinals in RB touches last week. He had 12, Damien Williams had nine, and Demercado had only three. It’s worth noting, however, that Demercado still played the most snaps — 33 for him, 28 for Ingram, 13 for Damien Williams. Fantasy managers obviously care more about touches than snaps, and maybe Demercado falls into the Antonio Gibson category of RBs who get a lot of snaps but not many touches. With James Conner injured, the Cardinals have gone to a committee approach at the RB position. I have no interest in starting a running back in a three-man committee in a limited offense.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Tier 7

No one hates the play-calling of Falcons head coach Arthur Smith more than I do, but it’s hard to understand the low FantasyPros ECR for Drake London (WR27). Ever since London was shut out in Week 1 — he had no catches and only one target against the Panthers — he’s been getting buried in the Expert Consensus Rankings every week. Since Week 2, London has averaged 8.4 targets, 5.2 receptions and 65.8 receiving yards a game. He’s been the WR19 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) over that span. London’s matchup this week isn’t bad. He’s going up against the Buccaneers, who have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs. Start London with confidence.

Diontae Johnson is back from a hamstring injury that landed the Pittsburgh possession receiver on injured reserve. We’ve seen no indication that Johnson will be on any sort of snap count, and he’s told the media he’s good to go. Never mind that Johnson hasn’t scored a touchdown since 2021; in the bye-pocalypse, he’s a midrange WR3. And I have no fears that Johnson’s return will diminish the value of George Pickens. That genie is out of the bottle. Pickens averaged 4.9 targets per game last year, but he’s averaging 8.0 targets a game in 2023. Pickens is WR18 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR), and I’m ranking him WR16 even in a tricky matchup vs. a Rams defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs.

It seems unlikely that Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo will play on Sunday after sustaining a Week 5 back injury that required a trip to the hospital. It’s not clear whether veteran Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell would get the start if Jimmy G is ruled out, but either would diminish the outlook for WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Despite catching only six passes for 74 yards and no TDs over his last two games, Adams is a must-start no matter who’s playing quarterback. I can’t quite put Meyers in that category. Meyers and Garoppolo have had terrific chemistry, and Meyers is putting up stellar numbers. He has 30-335-4 receiving and is WR13 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR). It seems like a leap of faith to think Meyers can replicate that sort of success with Hoyer or O’Connell. I have Meyers ranked as a low-end WR3.

Even with the Chargers having a Week 5 bye to more fully integrate rookie Quentin Johnston into their offense … Johnston isn’t fully integrated into their offense. He played 47.9% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps in their Week 6 loss to the Cowboys, drew only two targets and caught neither of them. The second of those targets resulted in the game-clinching interception for Dallas. Johnson’s lack of involvement bodes well for Josh Palmer, who had 4-60-0 on seven targets against the Cowboys and had multiple receptions nullified by penalties. Palmer is a midrange WR3; Johnston is off the fantasy radar for now.

When there aren’t any teams on bye, high-floor, low-ceiling WRs aren’t particularly attractive lineup options. When there are six teams on bye, such players become more alluring. If you’re stretched thin at a position, getting a modest but not insignificant point total from one of your fill-ins is a satisfactory result. Please allow me to tout the stable floors of Michael Thomas and Curtis Samuel. The stability of Thomas’ production has been remarkable. Thomas has finished with 45 to 65 receiving yards in all six Saints games this year. He’s had at least six targets and four receptions in every game. Samuel’s production has been nearly as stable. Factor in rushing yardage, and Samuel has produced between 32 and 65 yards from scrimmage yards in every Commanders game. He’s averaging 4.5 catches and 47.5 receiving yards per contest.

Rookie Rashee Rice leads all Chiefs WRs with 28 targets, 21 receptions and 245 receiving yards. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has a passer rating 0f 110.0 on throws to Rice Mahomes’ passer rating is 91.0 on throws to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, 78.7 on throws to Justin Watson, 70.7 on throws to Kadarius Toney, 67.4 on throws to Justyn Ross, and 50.8 on throws to Skyy Moore But inexplicably, Rice has played only 38% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps. Watson dislocated his elbow last week, which could mean more playing time for Rice (although the Chiefs annoyingly muddied the WR waters by reacquiring Mecole Hardman). I have Rice ranked WR40, which is below ECR, but I won’t try to talk you out of starting him in a potential shootout against the Chargers.

TIGHT ENDS

Tier 1

Travis Kelce

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Packer rookie Luke Musgrave hasn’t popped yet, but consider him a low-end TE1 this week in a tasty matchup against the porous Denver defense. The Broncos have given up a league-high 454 receiving yards and 13.7 fantasy points per game to TEs.

It may be displeasing to members of the fantasy community that Jonnu Smith has more targets and receptions than his wildly talented teammate Kyle Pitts, but if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em. Let’s face it: Jonnu has become a viable fantasy option. Since Week 2, he’s averaged 6.4 targets, 5.0 receptions and 56.4 receiving yards per game, with no fewer than five targets or four receptions in any of his last five games. He’s TE8 in fantasy scoring over that span. Consider Jonnu a high-end TE2 this week.

It’s not safe to start Zach Ertz anymore. There was a sea change in the Cardinals’ deployment of their TEs last week. Second-year man Trey McBride had 4-62-0 on five targets vs. the Rams while getting a season-high 58% snap share. Ertz had 2-22-0 on five targets while getting a season-low 46% snap share. I still have Ertz ranked two spots ahead of McBride this week, but both are undesirable TE3s in my rankings.

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Fitz’s Week 7 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2023 Fantasy Football)

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 7 Tiers & Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

WIDE RECEIVERS

TIGHT ENDS

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