You might feel as if the fantasy gods are singling you out for punishment. You’re certainly not alone in believing that those wrathful deities are conspiring against you.
It’s been a tough week in fantasyland. Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane and Anthony Richardson were placed on injured reserve earlier this week. The consensus No. 1 overall pick in 2023 fantasy drafts, an electrifying rookie RB who’s averaged 33.3 PPR points over his last three games, and an extraordinary athletic dual-threat rookie QB who’s averaged 0.43 fantasy points per snap — all out for at least four weeks, possibly longer.
It’s bad enough if you’re rostering one of these three players. Some fantasy managers are rostering two of them. And there are some poor souls who hit the IR trifecta, investing in all three of these injured young stars.
Oh … and I almost forgot about James Conner, a dependable workhorse who’s among the top-20 fantasy scorers at the RB position. Conner is on IR, too. (Sigh.)
These injuries aren’t necessarily season-wreckers. Most championship fantasy teams overcome some nettlesome injuries along the way. But there are times when a fantasy manager’s misfortune is so great that it can’t possibly be navigated.
There have been a great many debates about the degree to which luck plays a role in fantasy football. I have a theory about this. It may not be accurate, but it’s based on what I’ve observed in my many years of playing this silly little game.
The theory is that approximately 30% of fantasy teams are doomed from the start. The ill-fated 30 % incur so much misfortune — a slew of injuries, multiple close losses, a parade of high scoring opponents, or some combination thereof — that they can’t possibly overcome it regardless of their managerial acumen. Fantasy football is absolutely a game of skill … but only for the 70% who aren’t thwarted by the fantasy gods from the start.
Pretty grim theory, huh?
But here’s the thing: Even if you’re among the unlucky managers rostering more than one injured star — or have lost several close games, or have taken opponents’ best punches on several occasions — you can’t be sure you’re one of the unlucky 30%. Yes, you may have your suspicions. But there are all sorts of stories about fantasy managers who overcame vast early-season misfortune to win a championship. Perhaps someone in one of your leagues pulled it off. Or perhaps you were the fantasy manager who picked yourself up off the mat, made a miraculous comeback and cashed a winner’s check at the end of the season. One of our developers at FantasyPros won a dynasty league last year after starting 0-5. It can be done.
If it’s been a rough start to the season for you, by all means, feel free to shake your fist at the heavens and curse the fantasy gods for smiting you. But fight on, friends. None of us have been mathematically eliminated from the fantasy playoffs yet. Miracles do happen.
Fight on.
As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.
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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 5 Tiers & Rankings
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
- Justin Fields
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Kirk Cousins
- Trevor Lawrence
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
- Matthew Stafford
Tier 3
- Jared Goff
- Geno Smith
- Russell Wilson
- Brock Purdy
- C.J. Stroud
- Dak Prescott
- Sam Howell
- Baker Mayfield
- Joshua Dobbs
- Gardner Minshew
Tier 4
Tier 5
Welcome back to the circle of trust, Justin Fields. Perhaps we never should have cast Fields out of that circle. Yes, his struggles in the first few weeks of the season were real. There may be additional struggles ahead. Fields isn’t a pinpoint passer, so if he isn’t getting it done with his legs, he can produce some disappointing point totals. But when Fields is cooking as a passer and then slathers on the rushing gravy … that’s some good eatin’. Over his last two games, Fields has thrown for 617 yards and eight touchdowns. He feasted on the Denver and Washington pass defenses in those two games. Now he gets a tasty matchup against the Vikings, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. The Vikings love to blitz but only rank 21st in pressure rate, according to Pro Football Reference. Minnesota’s opponent passer rating is 110.8, third-worst in the league behind only the Broncos and, uh, the Bears themselves. Play Fields every week, even when the matchup isn’t as pristine as this one.
Speaking of quarterbacks readmitted to the circle of trust, welcome back, Joe Burrow. After a dreadful first four weeks in which he still appeared to be battling through a calf injury sustained early in training camp, Burrow turned in his best game of the season in Week 5, completing 36-of-46 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Cardinals. Burrow gets a friendly Week 6 home matchup against a Seattle defense giving up 18.2 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. The Bengals have a Week 6 bye, so there shouldn’t be any more calf-related concerns for Burrow by the time he faces the 49ers in Week 7.
A lot of people are fading Jared Goff this week because he’s playing on the road. I am not among those people. Players generally perform better in home games than in road games, but some players have extreme home/road splits. That’s been the case with Goff. Since joining the Lions in 2021, Goff has completed 68.7% of his passes and averaged 258.7 passing yards in home games. In road games, he’s completed 63.7% of his throws and averaged 235.9 passing yards. Those are pronounced but not absurd home/road splits. Touchdown passes are a different story. In 20 home games as a Lion, Goff has averaged 2.15 TD passes a game. In his 16 road games as a Lion, Goff has averaged 0.88 TD passes a game. Some people will see such a volatile split and conclude that Goff is unplayable in road games. I’m inclined to see such an extreme split as a glitch in the matrix — an anomaly, a fluke. Will Goff turn into a puddle of goo simply because he’s not playing in the friendly confines of Detroit’s Ford Field? I don’t buy it. Goff is playing well. Lions OC Ben Johnson is one of the best play callers in the game. Amon-Ra St. Brown is expected back from an abdominal injury, giving Goff a full complement of weapons. The Buccaneers are a difficult matchup but not a prohibitive one. I have Goff ranked QB12 this week and am not afraid to start him.
Rankers have been slow to give Bruck Purdy his due, and I’m guilty of that as well. I’m not ready to anoint him the next Tom Brady, but Purdy is a hand-in-glove fit for Kyle Shanahan’s system, limiting mistakes and effectively leveraging the 49ers’ impressive skill-position talent. Purdy is an efficient forklift operator, putting everything where it needs to be. I have him ranked QB15 this week. There are dual concerns with Purdy’s Week 6 setup: a tough matchup against a Browns defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA against the pass, and a concerning weather forecast that calls for rain and winds in the 15-25 mph range. Ask Browns fans about the wind-tunnel effect in their stadium. I’ve mentioned in past installments of this article that I’m not easily spooked by weather effects, but windy games in Cleveland are a notable exception.
Monday night’s Cowboys-Chargers game will tell us a great deal about Dak Prescott‘s fantasy value going forward. Dak is QB21 in fantasy scoring. He’s posted single-digit point totals in 2-of-5 games and has topped 16 fantasy points only once this season. If he has a disappointing fantasy performance against a Chargers defense that is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, in a game with a Vegas total of 50.5 points, it might be time to walk away.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1
Tier 2
- Raheem Mostert
- Travis Etienne
- Austin Ekeler
- Kenneth Walker
- Alvin Kamara
- Josh Jacobs
- Joe Mixon
- Derrick Henry
- Isiah Pacheco
- Kyren Williams
- D’Andre Swift
- Breece Hall
- James Cook
- Alexander Mattison
Tier 3
- Brian Robinson
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Jonathan Taylor
- Zack Moss
- Rachaad White
- Jerome Ford
- Dameon Pierce
Tier 4
- Javonte Williams
- Salvon Ahmed
- Miles Sanders
- Roschon Johnson
- Saquon Barkley
- Tyler Allgeier
- Chuba Hubbard
- Emari Demercado
- Tyjae Spears
- Justice Hill
- Gus Edwards
Tier 5
- Kenneth Gainwell
- D’Onta Foreman
- Chris Brooks
- Jaleel McLaughlin
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Keaontay Ingram
- Samaje Perine
- Cam Akers
- Jerick McKinnon
Tier 6
- Kendre Miller
- Craig Reynolds
- Zach Charbonnet
- Antonio Gibson
- Darrynton Evans
- Joshua Kelley
- Latavius Murray
- Salvon Ahmed
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Saquon Barkley is still a respected brand name in fantasy football, and no doubt his fantasy managers will be pleased if he returns from a high-ankle sprain to face the Buffalo this week. But Barkley might not be 100% healthy yet, and the Giants’ offensive line has been a disaster this season. You’re probably starting Saquon if you’re rostering him, but I do not have lofty expectations for him in his first game back.
It was surprising to see Zack Moss get so much more work than Jonathan Taylor last week. Eventually, the Indy backfield will be Taylor’s. Colts head coach Shane Steichen has already vowed to give Taylor more work this week vs. the Jaguars, whose sneaky-good run defense ranks fifth in DVOA. I think we’ll see something close to a 50/50 Taylor/Moss split this week, so I’m ranking both as low-end RB2s. The matchup is tough, but the Colts operate at a brisk offensive pace, and they’ll probably try to be balanced offensively with backup QB Gardner Minshew getting the start in place of the injured Anthony Richardson.
How quickly do you bail on a player who’s off to a slow start? On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being a quick hook and 10 being Tammy Wynette’s “Stand by Your Man” played loudly on a honky-tonk jukebox, what number would best represent you? I think I’m a 7. Let’s use Rhamondre Stevenson as a test case. Stevenson was excellent last year, finishing RB11 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring with 1,461 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. This year he’s RB26, averaging just 55 scrimmage yards per game with one touchdown. Yes, the Patriots’ offense has been a mess, but I think the running-game woes are fixable. PFF has New England graded 21st in run blocking, which is below average but not awful. The 25-year-old Stevenson most likely didn’t go from good to bad in a span of nine months. It will anger some frustrated Stevenson investors that I’m still ranking him as a top-20 RB this week, but I’m not afraid to use Rhamondre against a mediocre Raiders run defense.
With De’Von Achane on IR, there’s room for a second Miami running back to provide helpful fantasy value while operating in the NFL’s most explosive offense. Jeff Wilson was the leading candidate to be that second contributor, but he’s not ready to come back this week. That leaves a pair of wild cards in the Miami RB mix: Salvon Ahmed, who, like Wilson, is returning from injury, and undrafted rookie free agent Chris Brooks, who looked good in the preseason and had a long run in garbage time against the Broncos a few weeks ago. Neither is a safe play by any means, but one or both could produce useful numbers vs. a Carolina defense that has given up more fantasy points to RBs than any team other than the Broncos. I have Ahmed ranked RB31, Brooks RB38.
I was all set to add Emari Demercado to my Serie A fantasy soccer team. Then I realized he was actually an NFL running back. But seriously … there’s been debate among the fantasy intelligentsia about which Cardinals RB will have more value while James Conner is on IR — Demercado or Keaontay Ingram. Demercado had 10-45-1 rushing and 1-12-0 receiving against the Bengals last week. He’s an undrafted rookie free agent who backed up Kendre Miller at TCU last year. Demercado has good size (5-9, 215) and speed (4.49) and posted some impressive yardage-after-contact metrics in college. Ingram is returning from a neck injury. The Arizona depth chart lists him No. 2 behind Conner, and some fantasy analysts believe that’s why he’ll be a more valuable fantasy asset than Demercado. That may indeed be true. The reason I have Demercado ranked slightly higher this week is that it’s possible Ingram’s snaps are managed in his first game back from injury. Most likely we’ll see something close to a 50/50 workload split. Given the limitations of the Arizona offense, I wouldn’t be eager to start either guy vs. the Rams.
The Bears’ RB situation is interesting. Khalil Herbert is expected to miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury, and Roschon Johnson will miss Week 6 with a concussion. Free-agent acquisition D’Onta Foreman has been a healthy scratch in each of Chicago’s last four games but will now go straight into a workhorse role, backed up by the recently signed Darrynton Evans. Foreman doesn’t catch passes, so he needs a lot of carries to provide fantasy value. Foreman is now in line for heavy volume against the Vikings. The forecast is calling for wind and rain Sunday in Chicago — mudder weather that could suit Foreman well. I’m ranking Foreman as a midrange RB2, and I think he’s a better play than Saquon Barkley this week.
Miles Sanders has been dealing with a groin injury and didn’t practice for much of last week. He still played against the Lions but was outsnapped by Chuba Hubbard 34-33. Now, Sanders is dealing with a shoulder issue as well, leaving his status for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins up in the air. I’m currently ranking Sanders and Hubbard as midrange RB3s. If Sanders is out, Hubbard will ascend into low-end RB2 range in a favorable matchup against a Miami defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the run.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
- D.J. Moore
- Puka Nacua
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Calvin Ridley
- Jaylen Waddle
- D.K. Metcalf
- Chris Olave
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Nico Collins
- Christian Kirk
Tier 4
- Deebo Samuel
- Adam Thielen
- Michael Pittman
- Mike Evans
- DeVonta Smith
- Jordan Addison
- Garrett Wilson
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Gabe Davis
- Jakobi Meyers
- Chris Godwin
- Tee Higgins
Tier 5
- Marquise Brown
- Zay Flowers
- Terry McLaurin
- Tyler Lockett
- Drake London
- K.J. Osborn
- Courtland Sutton
- Jerry Jeudy
- Michael Thomas
Tier 6
- Joshua Palmer
- Josh Downs
- Amari Cooper
- Kendrick Bourne
- Robert Woods
- Josh Reynolds
- Tutu Atwell
- Curtis Samuel
- Jahan Dotson
- Rashee Rice
Tier 7
- Tyler Boyd
- Rashid Shaheed
- Michael Wilson
- D.J. Chark
- DeVante Parker
- Elijah Moore
- Quentin Johnston
- Justin Watson
- Skyy Moore
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Darnell Mooney
- Michael Gallup
- Brandin Cooks
- Marvin Mims
With Justin Jefferson out, Vikings WRs Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn gain significant fantasy value. Addison became fantasy-viable even before the Jefferson injury. That’s impressive considering that Osborn has been playing ahead of Addison in two-WR sets. So far this season, Osborn has outsnapped Addison 294-216, yet Addison has 61.9 PPR fantasy points vs. 41.6 for Osborn. Consider Addison a low-end WR2 this week and Osborn a low-end WR3. Both might be ranked slightly higher if not for an ominous weather forecast in Chicago for their matchup against a bad Bears pass defense.
Don’t be afraid to start Garrett Wilson this week even though his target-delivery mechanism is Zach Wilson. The Eagles’ pass defense was terrific last season. This season … not so much. Philadelphia has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, and CB Darius Slay, who was likely to be tasked with covering Wilson on a good number of his routes, is questionable with a knee injury.
Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson investors are not pleased with their early returns on investment. McLaurin is WR36 in fantasy scoring. Dotson is WR62. The problem is that Washington’s target distribution has been truly egalitarian with Sam Howell at quarterback. No Washington pass catcher has a target share higher than McLaurin’s 17.3%. McLaurin, Dotson, Curtis Samuel and TE Logan Thomas all have between 25 and 31 targets. Five other Commanders have drawn double-digit targets. It’s probably time to downgrade the fantasy value of McLaurin and Dotson if you haven’t already. I’m ranking McLaurin as a low-end WR3 this week against the Falcons and their tough outside cornerbacks, with Dotson checking in as a low-end WR4.
I’m usually an Amari Cooper proponent, but I’m not eager to use him this week. The Browns have a tough matchup against the 49ers in a game with a Vegas total of 37 points. Part of the reason for that low total is the windy, rainy forecast for Cleveland that I mentioned earlier. Another concern for Cooper’s productivity is the status of QB Deshaun Watson, who’s been dealing with a shoulder injury. Watson was a surprise scratch in Week 4, which forced rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson to make his first NFL start against the Ravens. Thompson-Robinson completed 19-of-36 passes for 121 yards, and Cooper had 1-16-0 on six targets. I’m ranking Cooper WR34 for now, but if Watson is out again, Cooper’s ranking will plunge into the 40s.
Josh Downs has been much more involved in the Colts’ offense with Gardner Minshew at quarterback than with Anthony Richardson at QB. In the two games that Richardson started and finished, Downs has averaged 5.7 PPR fantasy points. In games the three games that Minshew has played, Downs has averaged 12.4 PPR points. Downs also has a favorable matchup this week against the Jaguars. As noted by my colleague Derek Brown in The Primer, the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-highest passer rating on throws to slot receivers, and Downs will run the vast majority of his routes against Tre Herndon, who has allowed an 84.2% catch rate and a 147.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage.
Cooper Kupp‘s Week 5 return didn’t destroy Puka Nacua‘s fantasy value, but it put a major dent in Tutu Atwell‘s fantasy value. Atwell had drawn no fewer than eight targets in each of the Rams’ first four games. Last week against the Eagles, Atwell had only five targets. He had 2-9-1 receiving, with a touchdown salvaging an otherwise bleak fantasy showing. Start Atwell only if you’re desperate.
The Texans are expected to be without Tank Dell (concussion) this week, which raises the ceiling for Nico Collins and makes Robert Woods a viable flex option in most leagues. The 31-year-old Woods is in the twilight of his career, which might explain why he’s averaging an unimpressive 5.5 yards per target. But Woods is averaging 8.0 targets and 4.2 catches per game, and he has a good chance of seeing double-digit targets this week vs. the Saints. Even if the target efficiency hasn’t been tip-top for Woods, heavy target volume can make up for it. Woods is dealing with sore ribs but was able to practice on Thursday after being held out on Wednesday.
TIGHT ENDS
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
- Zach Ertz
- Tyler Higbee
- Hunter Henry
- Dalton Schultz
- Jonnu Smith
- Tyler Conklin
- David Njoku
- Dalton Kincaid
- Gerald Everett
- Cade Otton
- Dawson Knox
Tier 5
- Chigoziem Okonkwo
- Taysom Hill
- Noah Fant
- Hayden Hurst
- Durham Smythe
- Kylen Granson
- Irv Smith
- Mike Gesicki
- Noah Gray
- Adam Trautman
- Donald Parham
Dallas Goedert finally jump-started his season with an 8-117-1 performance against the Rams last week. Now he gets a plum matchup against a Jets defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing TEs. The Jets boast a terrific pair of outside cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, so it makes sense for opponents to use their tight ends heavily. Expect Jalen Hurts to look to Goedert early and often on Sunday.
I’m starting to think that Logan Thomas could have low-end TE1 value or even midrange TE1 value the rest of the way. As noted in the wide receiver section above, Commanders QB Sam Howell hasn’t been throwing to WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson as much as we expected. Thomas has drawn a 14% target share so far. He had 9-77-1 on 11 targets last week against the Bears, and I think Thomas will continue to see nice target totals since Howell seems more comfortable throwing to the middle of the field than to the boundaries. Thomas gets a juicy Week 6 matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to TEs.
If I were a Darren Waller investor — and I’m not, since I thought the Darren Waller hype got wildly overheated during fantasy draft season — I would be looking for excuses not to use him this week against a Buffalo defense that has yielded 19 catches, 156 yards and zero touchdowns to TEs so far this season. Not only is the matchup daunting, but Waller is dealing with a groin injury (although he was able to practice on Thursday).
After being nearly invisible in Weeks 1-3, Dalton Schultz has scored a touchdown in each of the last two weeks and has been TE4 in PPR scoring over that span. But this is a good week to disembark from the Schultz bandwagon. He’ll face the Saints, who pose a skull-and-crossbones matchup for opposing TEs. New Orleans is the only team to have allowed fewer than 100 receiving yards to tight ends this season. The Saints have yielded 14-99-1 to TEs so far.
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