It would not surprise me if most of the readers of this article suffered a frustrating Week 5 performance from their fantasy kicker, as nine of the top 12 players last week had a roster percentage on Yahoo of less than 25%.
Two of the most rostered and trusted kickers in football, Justin Tucker and Tyler Bass, combined for six fantasy points, while Daniel Carlson continues to struggle for fantasy owners clinging on to past strong performances of years gone by.
Hopefully, a few of you jumped on my advice regarding Ka’imi Fairbairn and his season-best K Score of 16. The Houston Kicker logged 15 fantasy points to finish as top-3 play, behind Greg Zuerlein of the Jets and Cairo Santos of the Bears.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Kicker Rankings & Waiver Wire Advice
Week 5 strong performances from widely-available kickers
Greg Zuerlein (K – NYJ) @ Denver: 4% roster percentage on Yahoo
Only four percent of Yahoo managers benefitted from Greg the Leg’s 18-point explosion against the Broncos on Sunday. A game ball was handed out to offensive coordination Nathaniel Hackett in response to Sean Peyton’s offseason negative remarks. Greg the Leg could also receive a game ball, with five field goals and two extra points on the day.
Cairo Santos (K – CHI) @ Washington: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
Justin Fields and DJ Moore dismantled the Commanders on Thursday Night with three touchdown passes. While not quite as impressive but certainly a big deal for that 1% of the population that started Santos, the Bears kicker posted 17 points in the game. By comparison, Santos had 22 points in his four previous games combined.
Week 5 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers
Tyler Bass (K – BUF) vs. Jacksonville: 99% roster percentage on Yahoo
I want to give Daniel Carlson and Justin Tucker a rest and focus on Tyler Bass for this week’s dud performance. Considering he posted 29 combined points in Weeks 3&4, the two points he scored last week against the Jags are not too concerning. Chalk that one up to a traveling across the pond and move on.
Kicker Rankings:
Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
1 | 3 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at NYJ | 42 | -7.0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 55F, Rain, 16 MPH Wind |
2 | 6 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | at LAC | 50.5 | -2.5 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 31 | Dome |
3 | 4 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at TEN | 40.5 | -4.0 | 4 | 29 | 13 | 46 | 54F, Light Wind |
4 | 1 | Harrison Butker | KC | vs. DEN | 47.5 | -10.5 | 22 | 25 | 7 | 54 | 76F, Rain, 22 MPH Wind |
5 | 2 | Tyler Bass | BUF | vs. NYG | 44.5 | -14.0 | 20 | 30 | 4 | 54 | 45F, Rain, 14 MPH Wind |
6 | 12 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. NO | 42.5 | 1.5 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 21 | Dome |
7 | 10 | Riley Patterson | DET | at TB | 43.5 | -3.0 | 2 | 25 | 6 | 33 | 77F, 15 MPH Wind |
8 | 5 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. CAR | 48.5 | -13.5 | 28 | 31 | 1 | 60 | 87F, Chance of Rain |
9 | 18 | Nick Folk | TEN | vs. BAL | 40.5 | 4.0 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 28 | 54F, Light Wind |
10 | 7 | Jake Moody | SF | at CLE | 37.5 | -5.5 | 25 | 28 | 3 | 56 | 55F, Rain, 17 MPH Wind |
11 | 8 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | vs. WAS | 44.5 | -2.0 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 39 | Dome |
12 | 9 | Brett Maher | LAR | vs. ARI | 48.5 | -6.5 | 15 | 26 | 8 | 49 | Dome |
13 | 13 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | vs. DAL | 50.5 | 2.5 | 13 | 27 | 5 | 45 | Dome |
14 | 19 | Brandon McManus | JAC | vs. IND | 46.5 | -4.5 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 76F, 12 MPH Wind |
15 | 14 | Greg Joseph | MIN | at CHI | 44.5 | -2.5 | 31 | 12 | 9 | 52 | 52F, Rain, 19 MPH Wind |
16 | 15 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. NE | 41.5 | -3.0 | 18 | 12 | 29 | 59 | Dome |
17 | 17 | Matt Gay | IND | at JAC | 46.5 | 4.5 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 40 | 76F, 12 MPH Wind |
18 | 16 | Jason Myers | SEA | at CIN | 44.5 | 2.5 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 51 | 54F, Chance of Rain, 15 MPH Wind |
19 | 11 | Evan McPherson | CIN | vs. SEA | 44.5 | -2.5 | 32 | 8 | 31 | 71 | 54F, Chance of Rain, 15 MPH Wind |
20 | 20 | Blake Grupe | NO | at HOU | 42.5 | -1.5 | 21 | 6 | 25 | 52 | Dome |
21 | 21 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | vs. DET | 43.5 | 3.0 | 24 | 12 | 22 | 58 | 77F, 15 MPH Wind |
22 | 23 | Joey Slye | WAS | at ATL | 44.5 | 2.0 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 43 | Dome |
23 | 24 | Cairo Santos | CHI | vs. MIN | 44.5 | 2.5 | 29 | 17 | 14 | 60 | 52F, Rain, 19 MPH Wind |
24 | 25 | Matt Prater | ARI | at LAR | 48.5 | 6.5 | 16 | 21 | 15 | 52 | Dome |
25 | 26 | Wil Lutz | DEN | at KC | 47.5 | 10.5 | 8 | 15 | 16 | 39 | 76F, Rain, 22 MPH Wind |
26 | 27 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | at MIA | 48.5 | 13.5 | 23 | 14 | 23 | 60 | 87F, Chance of Rain |
27 | 22 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | vs. SF | 37.5 | 5.5 | 25 | 19 | 21 | 65 | 55F, Rain, 17 MPH Wind |
28 | 28 | Graham Gano | NYG | at BUF | 44.5 | 14.0 | 8 | 8 | 32 | 48 | 45F, Rain, 14 MPH Wind |
29 | 29 | Chad Ryland | NE | at LV | 41.5 | 3.0 | 25 | 23 | 25 | 73 | Dome |
30 | 30 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | vs. PHI | 42 | 7.0 | 30 | 1 | 27 | 58 | 55F, Rain, 16 MPH Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank fourth in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 28. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and harmful game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent start in Week 5.
Nick Folk (K – TEN) @ Baltimore: 12% roster percentage on Yahoo
Folk enters Week 6 against the Ravens with a K Score of 28 and he takes on a Ravens team that has given up the fifth-most points to opposing kickers. The four-point spread for the Titans suggests that Vegas does not view this as a blowout, and both kickers could be in line for good games.
Ka’imi Fairbairn (K – HOU) vs. New Orleans: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
I am a bit worried that the Saints defense that just made Mac Jones look like a high school quarterback may do the same to CJ Stroud. But Vegas does not see it this way with a close line, and Fairbairn’s 21 K Score is still elite.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Ka’imi Fairbairn (K – HOU) @ Atlanta: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 11
My Rank: 8
Week 5 Finish: 3
A K Score of 16 is too hard to pass up and Fairbairn comes through with shining colors. Add in the fact that the game was played indoors, and the recipe for kicker success could not have been clearer. The Texans’ offense continues to move the ball and struggle in the red zone, making Ka’imi a sneaky play each week.
Wil Lutz (K – DEN) vs. New York Jets: 5% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 17
My Rank: 12
Week 5 Finish: Kicker Tied 14
I liked both kickers in this game based on what was projected to be some sputtering offenses. Lutz managed a respectable seven points but did not come through with a top-12 performance as expected.
Waiver Wire
Top Add
Ka’imi Fairbairn (K – HOU) @ Atlanta: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
Fairbairn quietly has the second-most points through five weeks, including last week’s 15-point showing against the Falcons. Rookie QBs can struggle in the red zone and the Texans’ defense is much improved and keeping them in games. I like Fairbairn for the rest of the year.
Other players to consider:
Cameron Dicker (K – LAC) vs. NYJ: 21% roster percentage on Yahoo
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