As we turn the page to October and kick off Week 5 action of NFL games, it is time to take a quick look back at the month of September and hand out my inaugural K Score awards. Four weeks of stats do not make enough of a sample size to determine the rest of the season, but it is interesting to look back at breakout performances, busts, and the rookie of the month.
MVP: Jake Elliott
With one top-12 finish since 2018, Elliott has been a solid NFL kicker for the Eagles, but not the best option for fantasy managers. With 14 attempts in his first four games the veteran kicker is on pace for a career-best 55 attempts in 2023. Why the sudden change? The Eagles offense is 24th in red zone efficiency through four games, but 5th in yards per game. That is K Score gold.
Rookie: Brandon Aubrey
This could have gone to Jake Moody, but I leaned toward Aubrey based on his record-setting start of making his first ten kicks as a rookie.
Biggest Surprise: Brett Maher
Like Elliott, Maher scored at least ten fantasy points in all four games of the month, including 14 points last week against the Colts. His lack of accuracy (75% this season) makes me a bit nervous, but he leads all kickers with 16 attempts, and the Rams offense is better than anticipated.
Biggest Bust: Daniel Carlson
Carlson entered 2023 with three consecutive top-3 performances and was a consensus top-5 pick in drafts this season. Through four games, Carlson has just 19 fantasy points and looks to be a bust the remainder of the year. An honorable mention here is Justin Tucker, who’s 5.3 points per game is by far the worst of his hall-of-fame career.
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Fantasy Football Week 5 Kicker Rankings & Waiver Wire Advice (2023)
(Rostership percentages courtesy of Yahoo!)
Here are a few Week 4 strong performances from widely-available kickers
Brandon McManus (JAC) vs. Atlanta: 26% roster percentage on Yahoo
McManus posted his best game of the season with 14 fantasy points and a second-overall finish against the Falcons in England. While I am bullish on McManus the rest of the season, I am a bit concerned this week against the Bills in what could be a negative game script.
Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU vs. Pittsburg: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
A blast from the past returns to the top performer section, as Fairbairn posted 12 fantasy points in an impressive win by the Houston Texans over the visiting Steelers. Fairbairn is someone to keep an eye on, as rookie Quarterbacks often struggle in the red zone and CJ Stroud and the Texans rank 31st through four games, despite ranking 10th in yards. I actually like Fairbairn this week as a streamer against the Falcons.
Week 4 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers
Justin Tucker (BAL) @ Cleveland: 99% roster percentage on Yahoo
Tucker continues to be a disappointment in fantasy with 5.3 points per game, well down from the 8.5 he has averaged for most of his career. Is it time to panic? That is a tough question, as he is the best kicker of all time. But, just six field goal attempts in four games has fantasy managers freaking out.
Kicker Rankings
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 5 | Jake Moody | SF | vs. DAL | 45 | -4.0 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 31 | 73F, 12 MPH wind |
| 2 | 2 | Harrison Butker | KC | at MIN | 53 | -5.5 | 17 | 16 | 3 | 36 | Dome |
| 3 | 1 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at LAR | 50 | -4.0 | 26 | 8 | 5 | 39 | Dome |
| 4 | 6 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | at SF | 45 | 4.0 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 73F, 12 MPH wind |
| 5 | 3 | Tyler Bass | BUF | vs. JAC | 48.5 | -6.0 | 8 | 26 | 6 | 40 | TBD |
| 6 | 4 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at PIT | 38.5 | -4.0 | 22 | 31 | 13 | 66 | 51F, Rain, 17 MPH Wind |
| 7 | 9 | Riley Patterson | DET | vs. CAR | 45 | -8.0 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 38 | Dome |
| 8 | 14 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | at ATL | 41 | 2.0 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 16 | Dome |
| 9 | 10 | Brandon McManus | JAC | at BUF | 48.5 | 6.0 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 30 | TBD |
| 10 | 7 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. NYG | 50 | -11.0 | 16 | 30 | 1 | 47 | 86F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 11 | 8 | Matt Gay | IND | vs. TEN | 42 | -1.5 | 6 | 29 | 16 | 51 | Dome |
| 12 | 17 | Wil Lutz | DEN | vs. NYJ | 43 | -2.5 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 32 | 78F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 13 | 11 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. GB | 44.5 | 2.5 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 46 | Dome |
| 14 | 12 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | vs. HOU | 41 | -2.0 | 20 | 14 | 24 | 58 | Dome |
| 15 | 13 | Brett Maher | LAR | vs. PHI | 50 | 5.0 | 28 | 22 | 4 | 54 | Dome |
| 16 | 15 | Greg Joseph | MIN | vs. KC | 53 | 5.5 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 30 | Dome |
| 17 | 16 | Nick Folk | TEN | at IND | 42 | 1.5 | 23 | 3 | 28 | 54 | Dome |
| 18 | 18 | Evan McPherson | CIN | at ARI | 44.5 | -3.0 | 17 | 12 | 32 | 61 | Dome |
| 19 | 19 | Blake Grupe | NO | at NE | 40 | 1.5 | 13 | 0 | 23 | 36 | 61F, Chance of Rain, 16 MPH Wind |
| 20 | 21 | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs. BAL | 48.5 | 4.0 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 36 | 51F, Rain, 17 MPH Wind |
| 21 | 22 | Matt Prater | ARI | vs. CIN | 44.5 | 3.0 | 15 | 21 | 12 | 48 | Dome |
| 22 | 24 | Anders Carlson | GB | at LV | 44.5 | 2.5 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 83 | Dome |
| 23 | 25 | Joey Slye | WAS | vs. CHI | 44.5 | 6.5 | 30 | 21 | 20 | 71 | 72F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 24 | 26 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | at DEN | 43 | 2.5 | 31 | 12 | 30 | 73 | 78F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 25 | 23 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | at DET | 48.5 | 8.0 | 20 | 6 | 25 | 51 | Dome |
| 26 | 27 | Cairo Santos | CHI | at WAS | 44.5 | -6.5 | 6 | 24 | 21 | 51 | 72F, 7 MPH Wind |
| 27 | 28 | Chad Ryland | NE | vs. NO | 40 | -1.5 | 11 | 24 | 17 | 52 | 61F, Chance of Rain, 16 MPH Wind |
| 28 | 20 | Graham Gano | NYG | at MIA | 50 | 11.0 | 27 | 15 | 31 | 73 | 86F, 7 MPH Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank #1 in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Contrarian Kicker Plays
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 5.
Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) @ Atlanta: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
Fairbairn is coming off his best game of the season and the Houston offense is humming. His K Score of 16 is the lowest of any player this season and I have him ranked 8th overall.
Wil Lutz (DEN) vs. New York Jets: 5% roster percentage on Yahoo
I’m not super confident on this one, as Russell Wilson could go off the rail and the Jets could create a negative game script with their defense. However, Lutz has 17 points in his last two games and this projects to be a lower-scoring, field goal game.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Brandon McManus (JAC) @ Atlanta: 33% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 12
My Rank: 9
Week 4 Finish: 2
McManus is my second top-3 pick in four weeks, with the veteran kicker posting 14 fantasy points in the first London game. While I am not super high on him this week against the Bills, I do like his long-term prospects in 2023.
Greg Joseph (MIN) @ Carolina: 12% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 16
My Rank: 11
Week 4 Finish: Kicker Tied 25
A pair of Kirk Cousins red zone picks derailed what should have been a lopsided win for the Vikings and a positive game script for Joseph. Instead, he managed just three extra points and a dud finish.
Waiver Wired: Top Add
Brandon Aubrey (DAL) @ SF: 50% roster percentage on Yahoo
I’m not sure what fantasy managers are waiting for with Aubrey. He is a top-3 kicker on the season and plays half his game indoors. Oh, and he is going to play in a game this week against the Niners in what could be a close gave with a positive game script.
Other players to consider
- Brett Maher (LAR) vs. PHI: 13% roster percentage on Yahoo
- Nick Folk (TEN) @ IND: 23% roster percentage on Yahoo
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