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    Sam Hoppen | Wed, Oct 11th 2023, 6:53am EDT

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways: Michael Pittman, Jaleel McLaughlin, Christian Watson (Week 6)

Hello and welcome to the Week 6 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.

  • Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
  • Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
  • Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
  • Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his yards per route run (YPRR), with the size of the player’s point as his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity, while yards per route run is a measure of one’s efficiency with the routes (and targets) he’s given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

New this week (and going forward), you’ll notice that I’ve added a second chart to each section. This is the same chart that you’re used to seeing for each section, but looking purely at the last four weeks. As we move through the season, the more recent weeks should hold more weight so this will give you a snap shot of more recent usage and trends!

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pace and Plays

  • At face value, the Texans vs. Saints matchup doesn’t scream excitement, but I think there’s some sneaky value in the over based on how these two teams play. First, both teams rank in the top ten in pace over expected over the past four weeks, while also recording a solid number of plays. In fact, New Orleans has run at least 61 plays in every game this season, with Houston hitting that mark in three of four games. Houston, though, has used no-huddle in neutral scripts on at least 9% of their plays in three of their last four games. The biggest hurdles to this total going over are New Orleans’ stout defense and these teams’ proclivity for running the ball. The Saints’ defense ranks third in EPA per play allowed, but I think Houston can find success through the air as New Orleans’ defense records pressure at just a 34.8% rate (14th in the league) and Houston’s offensive line continues to get healthier. If Houston abandons the run — their 30.8% rushing success rate doesn’t explain their -4% PROE — and lets rookie sensation CJ Stroud pick apart the secondary like he did against Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, then this game could be a point-fest.
    • Action: bet over 42.5 total points
  • This week’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys is a fever dream for fantasy football players. Aside from the Kellen Moore revenge game narrative, these are two of the fastest-paced teams in the league. Neither team has a game this year in which their pace was slower than expected, and they both rank top five in neutral-script seconds per play. While Dallas had its worst offensive performance of the year on Sunday Night Football, the Chargers’ defense is a great get-right spot for the Cowboys. Los Angeles allowed its opponents to record 83 and 73 total plays in its two games before their bye, and its defense ranks in the bottom eight in every major efficiency metric. On the flip side, Dallas’ defense showed it can be exploited and the Chargers (like San Francisco) boast a top-five offense in passing EPA per play and passing success rate. The total in this game has already risen from 46.5 points last week to 50.5 points as of this writing.

Team Pass Rates

  • After two weeks with a positive PROE to start the season, the Colts have leaned extremely run-heavy with a -11.6% PROE and 55.5% neutral-script pass rate since then. The Colts will now be without rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson for “some time” (whatever that means), leaving Gardner Minshew to command the offense. With Minshew, Indianapolis has had a -7.6% PROE (compared to -5.5% with Richardson), meaning the target volume will be hard to come by. Fortunately, Indianapolis has had a fairly condensed target tree among its top two receivers, Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. This season, Pittman and Downs have a combined 50% target share for the Colts (29% and 21%, respectively), while no other Colts player has more than a 14% target share. They’re also both consistently running a route on more than 80% of the team’s dropbacks. While Alec Pierce is also getting his fair share of route running in, they just have him mainly running wind sprints as he’s earned just 16 total targets this season. Pittman and Downs are the two most valuable pieces of the Colts’ passing attack, and I’m willing to buy high on them for some solid reliable production.
  • The chart above may imply that the Carolina Panthers are not a pass-happy team given they have a -2.3% PROE on the season, but a deeper dive into the data suggests otherwise. So far this year, the Panthers have an expected dropback rate of 70.7%, the highest in the league, while their actual dropback rate is the 5th-highest at 68.4%. Carolina has dropped back to pass at least 37 times in every game this year, which is largely driven by the large deficits they find themselves in early in games (and it won’t be much different against Miami this week). Early on, this was benefitting Miles Sanders, who saw at least five targets in each of the first three games, but he’s earned just four total targets in the last two weeks combined. Still, Sanders has run a route on at least 45% of dropbacks in all but one game this year while his primary competition, Chuba Hubbard has yet to eclipse the 40% mark in a single game. Sanders still seems like the guy in Carolina, as most of Hubbard’s touches typically come in garbage time of games. If the targets bounce back he’ll continue to be a solid RB2 option.

Running Back Usage

  • There’s a very real chance that Javonte Williams is going to get Wally Pipped while he’s missing time due to injury and that’s because of the impressive performance Jaleel McLaughlin has put on. Over the past two weeks, McLaughlin has been given 16 carries and has rushed for 140 yards (8.75 yards per carry) on top of seven targets with which he’s turned two into touchdowns. Samaje Perine has also been on the field slightly more in Williams’ stead, with snap shares of 46% and a season-high 63% this past week, but that’s resulted in just eight and 11 opportunities in those games, respectively. McLaughlin has still been given just a 34% snap share across those two games, but this level of efficiency and explosiveness (something we have yet to see from Williams) could warrant more playing time in the future.
  • With each passing week, it seems more and more likely that we’re going to get a more even split of the workload in Tennessee. Through five games, Derrick Henry ranks as the RB14 in Half PPR leagues, but you’d be hard-pressed to find any manager who thinks it feels that way. That’s largely due to the fact that Henry has just one game with more than 80 rushing yards this season (he had at least that many in all but four games last season). Henry also only has one game in which his snap share was above 60% and that’s due to the solid usage that rookie Tyjae Spears has seen as he’s been above a 50% snap share in all but one game this season. While Henry still has the rushing workload locked down (he has a 76% running back rush share), Spears is the much bigger threat as a pass-catcher, running a route on 49% of the team’s dropbacks (compared to 33% for Henry). Spears has at least four targets in all but one game this season, giving him a great 0.23 targets per route run rate (7th-highest among qualified running backs). Tennessee is still leaning more run-heavy with a 49.3% neutral-script pass rate, but on a team that lacks pass-catching weapons outside of DeAndre Hopkins, Spears should continue to have a solid role.
  • Since JK Dobbins went down with a season-ending injury, the Baltimore Ravens have had a mixed bag of usage between their running backs. The two primary players in this backfield are Justice Hill and Gus Edwards. There have been two games (Weeks 2 and 5) in which both have played at least 40% of the snaps (Hill left Week 3 early due to a toe injury that also caused him to miss Week 4). Edwards has more total opportunities across those two games, but Hill has had more snaps and, most significantly, more HVTs. In fact, Hill recorded five HVT in both of those games, including seven total receptions. Since 2020, there have only been 12 games among Baltimore running backs in which 5+ HVTs have been recorded, and Hill has two of those games in his last two full games played. So far this season, Edwards has just five HVTs total. For one of the more HVT-stingy teams in recent memory, that is massive.

Wide Receiver Usage

  • The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in football, but they may not be the best team for fantasy purposes. Christian McCaffrey is great, phenomenal, absurd, all of the above – you’re getting everything you asked for from him. The wide receivers, though, have been much more boom-or-bust. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk currently sit next to each other as the WR16 and WR17 in Half PPR this season, respectively. Let’s start with Aiyuk, who has two games with at least 17 fantasy points, but two other games with fewer than eight fantasy points. This has happened despite running a route on 80% of dropbacks in each of those four games he’s played (he missed Week 3). But Aiyuk is playing a much different role this year as his 15.7-yard average depth of target is by far a career-high. With this downfield role, he’s earned between six and eight targets in every game, but the results of those targets are a lot more variable. Onto Deebo, who had a target share of at least 25% in each of the first three weeks, but just a 7% target share across San Francisco’s last two games. Fortunately, his rushing workload (average of 3.2 carries per game) hasn’t changed much from last year. Ultimately, I think these two will continue to have up-and-down weeks, but the ceiling is high enough that they’re always worth a start.
  • Green Bay’s wide receivers were thriving early in the year when Jordan Love had thrown for six touchdowns in the first two weeks. Romeo Doubs had recorded at least 18 PPR points in three of the first five games with 12 and 13 targets in back-to-back games. It hasn’t quite been the same recently, though, as the offense has regressed a bit. Green Bay welcomed Christian Watson back to the fold in Week 4 with limited participation in the game (just a 48% routes run rate), but he was ramped up quickly to an 85% rate on Monday Night Football. Doubs has also seen his route rate grow each week, topping out at 97% the other night, but he only had four total targets to show for it. Jayden Reed appears to have been diminished to a more ancillary role upon Watson’s return as his routes have dropped in each of the last three weeks. I still think Reed is a fine bench stash, but Doubs and Watson are clearly the top receivers of this group and should be treated as such.

Tight End Usage

  • The main storyline from last week’s Thursday Night Football game was the Justin Fields to DJ Moore connect, but I want to focus elsewhere. The other week I noted that the Washington Commanders receivers were struggling because of the lack of target share they’ve commanded, but one of the primary beneficiaries of Sam Howell‘s target distribution has been Logan Thomas. Thomas has now run a route on more than 75% of Washington’s dropbacks in three of the four games he’s played (and the one game he didn’t get there was when he left early due to a concussion). In two of those games, Thomas has earned eight and (on Thursday) 11 targets. I’m not sure if this influence is led by Eric Beienemy’s playcalling or more matchup-driven, but Washington loves to throw the ball (their 9% PROE ranks first on the season), so this level of volume should continue. He’s a TE1 in every format right now.
  • This past week, Adam Trautman found himself among the top 12 tight ends in fantasy scoring thanks to his four-catch, 26-yard, and one-touchdown performance (the position really is bleak). While this is only the second game this year he’s caught a pass, it’s not for lack of targets as he’s had at least one in every game this season. That said, his route participation has been steadily growing from a 67% routes run rate in the first two weeks to an 85% rate over the last three games. Still, an abysmal 0.1 targets per route run and a lowly 4.6-yard aDOT aren’t enough to get me to buy in.

Quick Hops

  • Joe Mixon‘s 10 HVTs on Sunday almost matched his season-to-date number (13 HVTs) prior to the game. If Joe Burrow continues to play well and get healthier, a rising tide will lift all boats, including Mixon. He still has yet to score more than 15 PPR points in a single game, so if you’re looking for running back help, Mixon is a great option to buy as he’s been given an astounding 88% of Cincinnati’s running back touches.
  • I’m not worried about Jonathan Taylor‘s usage (yet). Before the game, Diana Rusinni reported that the Colts were planning on limiting his usage while they ramp him up to a full workload. Taylor ended up with just seven total opportunities on a 15% snap share. Zack Moss has proven he can be effective, so it may take longer than expected for Taylor to see a full workload.
  • Justyn Ross is a name to keep an eye on. In Week 5, Ross was targeted four times (he dropped two) but ran just six total routes. A common theme with Chiefs wide receivers this year is limited routes, but high target rate when on the field (unless you’re Marquez Valdes-Scantling). It seems unlikely any member of this wide receiver group separates himself, but I felt the need to note it.
  • Zay Flowers now has double-digit targets in three of five games this season but has yet to find the end zone. If he can correct the drops, he’ll be an incredible fantasy asset.
  • Kyle Pitts recorded seven catches for 87 yards on Sunday, the second-most catches and fourth-most yards in a single game in his career. But, he ran a route on just 63% of Atlanta’s dropbacks (a season-low). Sell high while you can.
  • Dalton Schultz could be a viable tight end streaming option if Tank Dell misses time. Schultz was targeted 10 times on Sunday (a season-high for him) and saw his routes rate bounce back after dropping down to 45% in Week 4.

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