Hello and welcome to the Week 8 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

• Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. You’ll notice that I’ve added a second chart to each section. This is the same chart that you’re used to seeing for each section, but looking purely at the last four weeks. As we move through the season, the more recent weeks should hold more weight so this will give you a snapshot of more recent usage and trends! Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
• Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his yards per route run (YPRR), with the size of the player’s point as his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity, while yards per route run is a measure of one’s efficiency with the routes (and targets) he’s given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pace and Plays

• This week we are privileged to have the Arthur Smith revenge game as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Tennessee Titans. I say privileged because this game currently sits with a 36.5-point game total, tied for the lowest on the slate (I can’t believe there are two games with totals this low) — this game will truly be a privilege to watch. But, there are plenty of reasons why this total is so low. First, these teams are two of the bottom three teams in combined points per game this season. Tennessee’s matchups also rank dead last in combined plays per game at just 116.8 combined plays per game, on average. Though the Falcons have increased their pace over expected the past several weeks, they still feature the most run-heavy play calling with a -8.9% PROE and a 46.6% neutral-script pass rate, so the clock will keep running while they’re on offense. Tennessee’s slower pace than expected can be attributed to their league-leading 82.9% rate in which they snap the ball with fewer than 10 seconds left on the play clock along with their 3rd-lowest 2.4% neutral-script no-huddle rate. Out of principle, I don’t think I can bet the under in this game (although it is reminiscent of the Iowa and Minnesota game this past week that went under its pregame total of 30.5 points). So I’m just avoiding this game as much as possible and only starting the usual suspects.
  • Action: fade all players in this game in DFS
• The Colts and Saints have been two of the faster-paced teams this year, so I’m betting the over in their game. So far this season, the Colts and Saints have combined for just three games in which they’ve played slower than expected while the two teams are also top six in average play clock remaining when snapping the ball. Furthermore, they are both among the top four teams in combined plays per game this year, as their games are both averaging over 130 combined plays per game. The biggest concern will be the Colts’ ability to move the ball against a solid Saints defense that ranks top four in EPA per play, success rate, and EPA per drive allowed. But, the Colts were able to carve its way through the top defense in the league last week to the tune of 456 yards and 38 points. Not to mention, the Colts allowed 32 offensive points to one of the league’s worst offenses on Sunday, so even a sputtering Saints offense should be able to carry its weight. The variance that both Derek Carr and Gardner Minshew present means this game could very well end up with 13 combined points, but I’m also intrigued by some alternate overs as each team has the skill players to break away for long chunk gains.
  • Action: bet over 43.5 points

Team Pass Rates

• Despite missing Cooper Kupp for the first four weeks, the Rams came out as a very pass-heavy team, with two games over a 10% PROE in the first three weeks. That has cratered recently, though, as they have just one game with a positive PROE since Week 4. It makes sense why they would lean more into the running game as their 45.5% rushing success rate ranks fourth in the league and they face light boxes at the highest rate. However, this leaves less meat on the bone for ancillary pieces of the passing game like Tutu Atwell and Tyler Higbee, who have combined for just 17 targets over the past three games. Atwell has also been pushed to the wayside with Kupp’s return, totaling just three targets in the last two games. As far as the running backs go, in their first game without Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers, Darrell Henderson was the only one who saw a target (he had two), but neither he nor Royce Freeman eclipsed a 40% routes run rate (Williams had been above 60% in every game he played this season). The rushing workload favored Henderson slightly as he was given 18 carries, but the increased rushing approach allowed Freeman to handle 12 carries of his own.
  • Action: bench Tutu Atwell, drop Tyler Higbee, and buy Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman

Running Back Usage

• This past week was the perfect situation and game script for Jahmyr Gibbs to have his best game of the season, which is why he’s the ideal sell-high candidate. In the game against Baltimore, Gibbs set season-high marks in total opportunities (22), targets (11), routes per dropback rate (76%), running back touch share (83%), and, as a result, Half-PPR fantasy points (23.1). The two other times in which Gibbs’ running back touch share and snap share both eclipsed 40% included the other game that David Montgomery was inactive and the Week 2 shootout with Seattle that had Detroit trailing for most of the 4th quarter. We saw both of those scenarios play out in Sunday’s game once again, helping Gibbs thrive in his pass-catching role. It should also be noted that Gibbs only got five of his 21 touches in the first half Not to mention, Craig Reynolds came into the game dealing with a hamstring and toe injury that, along with the game script, limited him to just four opportunities on a 9% snap share. I, along with every other fantasy pundit, want Gibbs to work out and be the player we were all hoping for entering the season. But, this played out almost too perfectly for Gibbs. With Montgomery’s future status still uncertain, now is the time to cash out as I don’t expect this usage to continue once Montgomery returns to the lineup.
  • Action: sell Jahmyr Gibbs
• For the first time this season, we saw a slight shift in the usage of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ backfield. Prior to Pittsburgh’s Week 6 bye, Najee Harris was treated as the primary back over Jaylen Warren, but not by much. Harris had a 55% running back touch share compared to 44% for Warren in addition to Harris out-snapping Warren 52% to 46%, respectively. Then, in the Week 7 matchup against the Rams, Harris was given 17 total opportunities while Warren was given a season-low 8 opportunities, only the second time he’s been below double-digit opportunities. Harris’ 71% running back touch share was also the highest of the season as were his five HVTs. He got those five HVTs thanks to three touches inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, and Warren has only two such touches the entire season combined. I still think Warren is a solid fantasy running back who can be started in the flex, especially when Pittsburgh faces a potential game script that might force them to pass more. Warren’s 21% routes run rate was a season-low after being above 40% in each of the previous four games, but Kenny Pickett attempted just 25 passes in Week 7, the second-fewest in a game this season. That said, if this slight increase in usage is a sign to come for Harris I want to be in on him before he has a major game, so I’m conservatively buying in leagues where I’m struggling with running back production.
  • Action: buy Najee Harris, hold Jaylen Warren
• When Jonathan Taylor returned to action in Week 5, he was limited to 10 snaps and seven total touches. Following that game, the Colts announced that they planned to ramp up Taylor’s workload, and that’s exactly what they’ve done. Taylor’s opportunities, snap share, and routes run rate have all increased in each of the past three games, culminating with 22, 50%, and 50% this past week, respectively. Despite that, Zack Moss has still remained rather heavily involved in the offense as he’s been given at least 14 opportunities in each of the three games that Taylor played including two games with at least 20 opportunities. Moss’ snap share has dropped down in the last three weeks and he got just one of the five HVTs this past week. After giving Taylor a hefty extension, it made a ton of sense that Indianapolis would start to force-feed the ball to him in an effort to prove the contract was worth it. But, Moss has shown enough value that he won’t be put to the wayside anytime soon. I’m less confident in Moss as more than a flex fantasy option, but he’ll continue to be worth a roster spot while Taylor should be started every week going forward.
  • Action: buy Jonathan Taylor, hold Zack Moss

Wide Receiver Usage

• Entering the season, we had what we thought would be a 1A (Tyreek Hill) and 1B (Jaylen Waddle) scenario in Miami, and the ADPs reflected that. Though it may seem like Hill has become Tua’s far-and-away number-one option, that hasn’t necessarily been the case. Waddle has struggled with a number of injuries this season, leading Hill to out-target Waddle in all but two games this season (including one when they both had five). Hill is averaging 10.6 targets per game while Waddle is at a respectable 6.8 targets per game. However, that’s almost directly in line with Hill’s (10 targets per game) and Waddle’s (6.9 targets per game) 2022 usage. The biggest difference has been in the efficiency, as both are still running a route on more than 75% of the team’s dropbacks. Waddle’s yards per reception has cratered from an absurd 18.1 yards in 2022 to a less-impressive 12.0 yards while Hill has gone from 14.0 yards per reception last year to a career-high 17 yards per reception. Still, fantasy managers are frustrated by the two touchdowns Waddle has scored, leaving him as the WR36 in Half PPR leagues. The usage is there, so I am inclined to buy Waddle with the depressed value he likely has right now.
  • Action: buy Jaylen Waddle
• We have a very similar situation playing out in Philadelphia between AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, but this one has a couple of key differences. First, Brown is averaging over two targets per game more this year than he was last year, while Smith is down from 8 targets per game last year to just 7.1 targets per game this year. Because of this, Smith’s target share has dropped a full five percentage points year-over-year. Part of this change is likely due to Smith’s increased aDOT, which has risen from a career-low 9.6 yards in 2022 to 12.5 yards this year. But, a big reason why I’m still bullish on Smith is twofold. First, he’s running a route on almost every dropback this season — there have only been two games in which he hasn’t run a route on every dropback, and he was at a 97% rate and 96% rate for those two. Second, Philadelphia is throwing the ball a little bit more this year. Last year, the Eagles’ 58.8% neutral script pass rate ranked sixth, but this year their 64.8% rate is second behind only Cincinnati. Both Smith and Waddle will be more boom-or-bust than originally hoped for, but they’re both great buy-low candidates.
  • Action: buy DeVonta Smith
• This week’s Monday Night Football game featured the Jordan Addison breakout. With two touchdowns for 123 yards on seven receptions, Addison now has the highest-scoring fantasy week for a Vikings wide receiver. He only ran a route on 75% of the team’s dropbacks, but that was because he left the game due to some cramping (I’d bet he would have been in on every play had it not been for that). In the two games that Justin Jefferson has missed, Addison has a team-leading 2.29 yards per route run on a 37% air yards share. Kj Osborn has still been involved in those games, running a route on all but one dropback, but it’s a lot of wind sprints as his 0.14 targets per route run is last on the team in that span. With uncertainty around when Jefferson might actually return and the Vikings’ continued penchant for passing the ball, I’m more than willing to buy high on Addison following his breakout.
  • Action: buy Jordan Addison

Tight End Usage

• Though it was a gloomy day for the Buffalo Bills, it wasn’t for Dalton Kincaid, who had the best game of his career so far. Kincaid caught all eight of his targets for 75 yards but only ran a route on 63% of the Bills’ dropbacks. But, with Dawson Knox undergoing wrist surgery (his timetable to return is unknown), Kincaid’s route share should jump closer to the 80% range even though Buffalo already used 12 personnel at the fourth-highest rate. Though the Bills have struggled as a team lately, their 0.24 pass EPA per play on offense and 3.6% PROE are still great enough that I want to buy into someone who should be their primary tight end for the near term.
  • Action: add and buy Dalton Kincaid
• Cole Kmet gave fantasy managers some solid performances with touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. Unfortunately, those same managers have been punished, believing that would continue, as he’s posted just 1.9 Half-PPR points in the past two weeks combined. Kmet has maintained a solid routes per run rate this season, floating in the 70% to 80% range for most games. The targets have been all over the place, though, ranging from a season-high nine targets in his two-touchdown performance in Week 4 to not recording a single target this past week against the Raiders. Kmet is still the TE9 in Half-PPR leagues and his 8.0 expected fantasy points per game is 10th among tight ends, but it’s going to be very feast or (more likely) famine for the Bears tight end.
  • Action: sell the idea of Cole Kmet returning to his previous performances (consistently, at least)

Quick Hops

• Over the past two weeks, Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been given 32% of the backfield’s carries, putting Brian Robinson down to just a 53% share (he was at an 81% share the first five weeks). With how often Washington is passing the ball and how crowded the backfield now is, you should be downgrading the entire backfield to just flex options.
• D’Onta Foreman may be forcing the Bears to have a three-person backfield once Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert return from their injuries. On Sunday, Foreman was given 21 opportunities, following a 16-opportunity outing the previous week, while getting a season-high five HVTs.
• This past week, Rashee Rice ran a route on a season-high 67% of Kansas City’s dropbacks. He’s also scored a touchdown in two of his last three games along with 60+ receiving yards in back-to-back games. Kansas City’s true WR1 is Travis Kelce, but Rice has carved out a nice role for himself.
• There were no limitations for Diontae Johnson in his return from injured reserve. He ran a route on 86% of the team’s dropbacks and was targeted six times. This pushed Allen Robinson down to a backup role once again with a season-low 54% routes run rate and just one target. He can be safely dropped.

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