Hello and welcome to the Week 7 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. You’ll notice that I’ve added a second chart to each section. This is the same chart that you’re used to seeing for each section, but looking purely at the last four weeks. As we move through the season, the more recent weeks should hold more weight so this will give you a snapshot of more recent usage and trends! Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
Hello and welcome to the Week 7 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. You’ll notice that I’ve added a second chart to each section. This is the same chart that you’re used to seeing for each section, but looking purely at the last four weeks. As we move through the season, the more recent weeks should hold more weight so this will give you a snapshot of more recent usage and trends! Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his yards per route run (YPRR), with the size of the player’s point as his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity, while yards per route run is a measure of one’s efficiency with the routes (and targets) he’s given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pace and Plays
- The closest expected game of the week based on the spread is the Denver Broncos vs. the Green Bay Packers. Shockingly, the game total is tied for the third-highest of the entire week at 45 points. The total is this high despite neither team playing with any urgency whatsoever. The Packers have just one game in which their actual pace was faster than expected (the Week 4 blowout against the Lions) while the Broncos haven’t played a single game where that has been the case. So far this season, Green Bay has just one game with more than 60 plays recorded and, with their offensive efficiency falling off after a hot start to the season, they could continue to struggle moving the ball this week. Furthermore, both teams rank in the bottom half in neutral-script pass rate, and running the ball is going to drain the clock even more. What’s likely driving this total up is both teams having lackluster defenses (they each rank bottom-8 in success rate), but I think this total should be sitting closer to 43 points with these teams’ pace profiles.
- Action: bet under 45 total points
Team Pass Rates
- The Seattle Seahawks continue to be a team leaning slightly more on the pass. Despite a poor outing fantasy-wise with two interceptions and no touchdown passes, Geno Smith threw for over 300 yards for the second time this year. In fact, it’s been a bit feast-or-famine for him with three games of at least 275 passing yards and two games below 125 passing yards (one of which he exited due to injury for a little bit). This boom-or-bust nature has trickled down specifically to Tyler Lockett, who has two games with at least 12 Half-PPR points but three games with fewer than 8 points. Surprisingly, DK Metcalf is the more consistent of the two, as he’s averaging 11.3 Half PPR points and has double-digit points in all but one game. Both are running a route on more than 80% of the team’s dropbacks, but are in an offense that is not as concentrated as we’d prefer to see. Still, I expect the production to stabilize a bit more as the season rolls on and would continue to start both Metcalf in Lockett where I have them.
- The New England Patriots have quickly lost all trust that they have in Mac Jones as they sit with a league-low -8% PROE over the last four weeks. In fact, their neutral-script pass rate hasn’t eclipsed 55% since their Week 1 matchup when they were at 66.7%. This has come with a slight increase in usage for the Patriots running backs, but not necessarily of the valuable type. This season, New England’s 12.0 average expected rushing fantasy points per game ranks 22nd in the league. While it’s still just a two-man backfield for the Patriots between Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott, the touch distribution is a lot closer than fantasy managers would prefer. Stevenson has just a 61% running back touch share this season, putting Elliott at 39%. Stevenson has still been running a route on 57% of the team’s dropbacks (9th-most among running backs), but as the Patriots continue to be run-heavy that becomes much less relevant. As a team, New England’s HVT usage is also middling, but the split nature of this backfield remains the biggest issue. I’m not sure you should drop either of the Patriots’ running backs, but I certainly have no confidence plugging them into my lineup.
Running Back Usage
- With the Nick Chubb injury further in the rearview mirror, we have a clearer view of how the Browns’ backfield is shaking out in his absence. At this point, it seems like it’s down to a two-man backfield with Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt sharing the workload. With totals of 13, 15, and 19 opportunities, Ford looks like the lead guy in the backfield. His snap share dipped just below 50% for the first time since the Chubb injury, which coincided with a season-high 37% snap share and 15 opportunities for Hunt. The most surprising thing, and what makes me more bullish on Ford, is that he had back-to-back games with a routes run rate over 50% prior to the bye. That, too, evened out in the Week 6 matchup against San Francisco with Ford running just one more route than Hunt. Still, as the incumbent backup heading into the season, I give the slight edge to Ford for the rest of the season, but it’s clear that Hunt is going to limit his ceiling.
- I previously stated that no New York Jets player could be started (confidently) while Zach Wilson was the quarterback, but Breece Hall is proving me wrong. This past week, Hall ran a route on a season-high 59% of the team’s dropbacks while playing on 62% of the team’s snaps (most for any Jets running back in a single game). Hall also has seven and six HVTs in the past two games after totaling just five HVTs in the first four weeks of the season (Hall also has five of the seven green zone touches for the Jets this season). With Dalvin Cook demoted to a backup role (look at recent snap counts/carries), he’s nothing more than a low-value handcuff. Michael Carter looks like he’s playing a bit more on passing downs, but he has run a route on more than 40% of dropbacks just once this season (Week 5). Once the Jets return from their Week 7 bye, Hall can be confidently started as a high-end RB2.
- The Houston Texans have struggled to run the ball this year, with their -0.18 rushing EPA per play ranking 6th-worst in the league. While that doesn’t always translate to poor fantasy performances, it most certainly has been the case for Dameon Pierce. So far this season, Pierce has just one game with more than a dozen Half PPR fantasy points, with his season-high being a pedestrian 13.4 points. This isn’t for a lack of workload, though — Pierce has recorded at least 13 opportunities in every game this season and his 18.2 opportunities per game ranks 18th among running backs. He’s also averaging a solid, yet not extraordinary, three HVTs per game this season. Another ceiling-limiting factor is Devin Singletary‘s increased usage, as he saw a season-high mark in opportunities (14), snap share (55%), and routes per dropback (50%). Singletary has also looked the (slightly) more explosive back, averaging a full yard per carry more than Pierce. I’m bullish enough in this offense that I’m still holding onto Pierce (but benching him) and adding Singletary in case this usage trend continues.
Wide Receiver Usage
- Zay Flowers has quickly evolved into one of Lamar Jackson‘s favorite targets, if not his favorite. Flowers has out-targeted Mark Andrews in three of the five games that the two have played together. His role seems to have normalized a bit, too, as more of a downfield threat while Andrews is used in the intermediate area of the field. After games with an aDOT of 2.8 yards and 3.8 yards in Weeks 1 and 3, Flowers’ aDOT has been above 13 yards in two of the last three games. As for the other Ravens pass catchers, only once has a game with more than five targets been recorded (Nelson Agholor with six targets in Week 2). Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham have both missed time due to injury already this season, and they only have one game between the two of them in which they’ve run a route on more than 70% of Lamar’s dropbacks. The aforementioned Agholor (63% routes run rate and 14% target share this season) has taken advantage of these two missing time, so he may be worth a speculative add in deeper leagues.
- A lot has (rightfully) been made about the Falcons’ usage of Kyle Pitts, but a similar narrative surrounding Drake London has seemingly gone away, and for good reason! So far this season, London is running a route on 89% of the team’s dropbacks and has just one game below an 85% rate. Since his Week 1 goose egg in which he only got one target, London has seen at least six targets in each game, topping out at a season-high 12 targets on Sunday (also tied for a career-high). Atlanta’s league-low -8.2% PROE is still a concern, but London’s team-leading 0.51 WOPR and 25.9% first-read target share (via FantasyPoints) are clear signs that he is Desmond Ridder‘s number one target. Mack Hollins is the only other wide receiver in Atlanta with a target share north of 10% (he’s at 12%), so the rest of the group can be safely ignored.
- The Denver Broncos wide receiver group has been as confusing as any in fantasy football this season. Let’s start with Courtland Sutton who, as the WR30 in Half PPR leagues, is the only one to have shown any semblance of fantasy relevance this season. Sutton has just one game with a routes run rate below 90%, but that was Week 1 when he was at 89%. Still, Sutton is averaging just 6.2 targets per game for an uninspiring 22% target share. Then we have Jerry Jeudy. Fresh off of some heavy criticism from Steve Smith, Jeudy has just one game with more than 55 receiving yards and one game with more than five receptions. Both Jeudy and Sutton have a WOPR over 0.5, which is good, but Sutton’s seven end zone targets this season are what have kept him relevant. Lastly, there’s Marvin Mims, who has an absurd 4.24 yards per route run (2nd behind only Tyreek Hill), but the problem is that he’s only run 58 routes all season. He’s somehow still second on the Broncos in receiving yards despite that, but Sean Payton seems to have little intention of increasing his workload given Brandon Johnson has nearly twice as many routes run as Mims.
Tight End Usage
- This year has been the year of the rookie tight end, and Michael Mayer is finally joining the party. In Week 6, Mayer set season-high marks in routes run percent (67%), targets (6), and receiving yards (75). To this point, Las Vegas had been the most concentrated passing attack in the league, but Mayer’s increased role could change that. Fortunately, it seems like Mayer’s increased usage has come with Austin Hooper‘s role minimizing, with him running a route on fewer than 35% of the team’s dropbacks in each of the last two games after being above 50% in every game prior. This role reversal, as opposed to a fluke outing, has me more bullish on Mayer’s near-term and rest-of-season outlook.
- Last week, Jerry Jones noted that he liked seeing the ball go to tight ends. So, naturally, Jake Ferguson had his worst game of the season in Week 6, recording just one catch for 15 yards on a single target. But, I’m still optimistic about Ferguson for reasons that don’t appear in the box score. First, Ferguson’s routes run rate has risen in every game since Week 2, culminating with a season-high 84% rate in Week 6. Additionally, we’ve seen Dallas’ PROE rise over their past several games after they started off the season with a run-heavy approach. Finally, Ferguson’s first-read rate of 16.8% is 12th among tight ends (via FantasyPoints). The bar is low for tight end this year, but I think Ferguson holds enough value on a solid offense to warrant a slightly longer leash for now.
Quick Hops
- As expected, Jonathan Taylor‘s involvement in the Colts offense did increase slightly in his second week back. He played on 42% of the team’s snaps and ran a route on 37% of the team’s dropbacks. Still, it remains a timeshare with Zack Moss from a workload perspective as they split the touch share evenly in Week 6. The six targets that Taylor earned (which turned into seven HVTs) are encouraging, but I might struggle to start him against this Browns defense in Week 7 while he’s still in a committee.
- Gus Edwards got all three of the Ravens’ green zone touches in Week 6. Justice Hill still got three HVTs thanks to his three receptions, but was out-snapped by Edwards in the game. This could be a very game-script-dependent backfield in which Edwards is favored when Baltimore is leading and Hill is favored when they’re trailing.
- Quentin Johnston is still struggling to find playing time despite the injury to Mike Williams. Johnston went from running a route on 71% of dropbacks in the first game without Williams to just a 49% rate on Monday Night Football. He has earned just 13 targets all season across the five games Los Angeles has played. If you can be patient I still think he’s worth a hold, but the expectations on near-term production are very, very low.
- Jameson Williams also took a step back in terms of routes run, going from 50% in his first game back to just 19% in Week 6. He does have three targets in each of his first two games, including this long reception for a touchdown. That said, I think Williams’ ceiling is at about six targets per game with plenty of boom-or-bust potential given the type of player he is and the Lions’ low PROE.
- Trey McBride ran a route on a season-high 48% of Arizona’s dropbacks while Zach Ertz was at a season-low 52% routes run rate. McBride also earned five total targets, so this situation is something to monitor if McBride starts to get more run than the old veteran.
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