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Fantasy Football Trade Advice
Players to Buy
Running backs Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson split the ground game duties in Week 6, with each receiving 13 carries. While the rushing attack didn’t find the end zone, the pair combined for 88 yards, demonstrating their ability to move the chains.
Robinson was a reliable receiver out of the backfield, catching 5 passes for 43 yards, contributing to the passing game’s success (8 targets, 18% Target share). Been preaching this for a while but BUY LOW on Robinson.
77% snap share was his second-highest mark of the year. He led the team in routes run. Also saw 2 red zone carries to Allgeier’s four.
Breece Hall had a decent outing with 12 carries for 39 yards and a touchdown. But the usage is salivating. Hall got there for fantasy with 5 catches for 54 yards on 5 targets. The three down role and usage has returned. YLTSI. 66% snap share. 60% route participation. Bell. Cow.
Dalvin Cook had just 3 carries for 12 yards. Michael Carter with just two RB opportunities. Dust. If Jets can just focus on everything around Hall and Garrett Wilson, we should be okay for fantasy purposes. Schedule second half of the season is JUICY. Giants, Chargers, Raiders, Bills and Dolphins up next. Can’t believe I am saying this but….buy Jets.
Brandon Aiyuk dominated the targets (10, 42% Target share) but Brock Purdy kept missing him deep. Still went 4 for 76 despite 158 air yards (62%).
He owns a top-10 Target share (30%) and league-leading 54% air yard share this season. Only
Cooper Kupp ranks higher in total weighted opportunity than Aiyuk this season.
Cooper Kupp remained WR1 with 7 catches for 148 yards and 1 TD (9 targets, 43% Target share). Targets remained concentrated between Kupp and Puka Nacua (7 targets, 33% Target share).
Although Nacua had his worst game to date. 4 for 26. Dropped a TD. Buy Low.
He and Kupp ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks.
Nobody else is involved in this passing attack outside these top two guys. Kyren Williams was a monster on the ground. 20 for 158 and 1 TD. Ronnie Rivers got banged up, so Zach Evans got some run late. Rivers is expected to miss time, making Evans the next handcuff to Kyren (who is also expected to miss Sunday’s game with a sprained ankle).
Saquon Barkley is back. After missing some time with a high ankle sprain, Barkley returned to the lineup and played 78% of the snaps. The team fed him 24 times for 93 yards on the ground and he added 4 catches for 5 yards. He looked like his explosive self, with rushes of 34 yards and 19 yards.
In the receiving game, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf were the primary targets. Lockett was targeted 8 times, securing 6 receptions for 94 yards, while Metcalf received 10 targets (27% Target share), making 4 receptions for 69 yards. Their involvement remained crucial in the Seahawks’ aerial assault. Additionally, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5 targets, 14% Target share, 2 red-zone targets) Jake Bobo (2 targets) and Kenneth Walker (3 targets) all contributed with multiple receptions, helping to spread the ball around.
The big takeaway here is that we DID see a usage bump come from Smith-Njigba ($3,900 on DraftKings). Tied Lockett and Metcalf for the team lead in routes run (81%). Was a season-high snap share (72%). Posted season-high in receiving yards (48) with two red-zone targets. Make sure he is not available on waivers.
At the same time, it’s prime time to sell high on Tyler Lockett. Strong yardage output in Week 6 was boosted by two catches of 30-plus yards. He had zero catches of 20-plus yard air targets entering the game (0-for-7).
I’d also be buying Metcalf aggressively ($6,800 on DraftKings). 143 air yards and 10 targets should be more than 4 for 69. Was targeted thrice in the red zone, but no TDs.
DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert contributed but not nearly to the level of AJB WR1 szn. Smith had all the targets he could handle with a team-high 11 targets (26% Target share, 154 air yards) but finished with just five catches for 44 yards. DG wasn’t running nearly the same number of routes, so something to monitor. Maybe related to the injury to Lane Johnson. Something to monitor.
The Dolphins, Commanders and Cowboys over the Eagles’ next 3 games. Buy low on Smith. The usage, the routes, the matchups and the talent are ALL there for the taking.
Jaylen Waddle made a significant impact, with 7 receptions for 51 yards, and a touchdown reception (9 targets, 30% Target share). Two more red-zone targets as the team is clearly trying to get him usage when they close in on scoring.
Buy low on Waddle. The eruption game is coming. 9-plus targets in back-to-back weeks.
Eagles on SNF (oh baby), Patriots and Chiefs up next.
In the passing game, Amari Cooper emerged as the primary target, being targeted 8 times (24%), securing 4 receptions for 108 yards, averaging a remarkable 27 yards per catch. Cooper’s highlight-reel ability was a highlight of the Browns’ passing attack. He also continues to dominate the team’s air yards (42%).
Elijah Moore saw 7 targets (21%) but was not very effective with just 4 catches for 19 yards. Still, very clear emphasis trying to get him the ball. He also had 3 carries.
The Colts, Seattle and Arizona are up next. Buy low on ALL the Browns WRs with the team hopeful that Deshaun Watson can make his return. And P.J. Walker showed that he can least support fantasy viable options if Watson isn’t ready for Week 8.
Rhamondre Stevenson had a solid game on the ground, recording 46 yards on 10 carries, including a touchdown. His power and ability to find running lanes were evident. Stevenson was productive in the passing game, with 5 receptions for 24 yards (6 targets, 19% Target share). The receiving usage was a great return to form, as Mondre ran a route on 63% of dropbacks.
He did leave the game briefly after being checked for an injury but returned. Played 65% of the snaps. Buy. The Bills cannot stop the run. Stevenson is $5.6K on DK in Week 7.
Buy Isiah Pacheco.
Pacheco remains on the league’s under-the-radar bell cows. Another 16 carries for 62 yards with increased receiving usage. 6 for 6 for 36 yards (15% Target share). 63% snap share. Tied Jerick McKinnon in routes run (18) for the second straight week.
He faces DEN again and the Chargers in the next two games. Buy.
Garrett Wilson contributed 8 receptions for 90 yards on a whopping 12 targets (36% Target share, 48% air yard share). He continues to amaze and deliver with a horrible QB.
Wilson ranks 5th in the NFL in Target share (32%) and air yards share (45%).
If Jets can just focus on everything around Hall and Wilson, we should be okay for fantasy purposes.
Schedule second half of the season is JUICY. Giants, Chargers, Raiders, Bills and Dolphins up next.
Can’t believe I am saying this but….buy Jets.
Devin Singletary took the lead, carrying the ball 12 times for 58 yards, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Led the backfield with a 54% snap share. Ran a route on 56% of the dropbacks which boosted his total snap numbers.
Dameon Pierce contributed 13 carries for 34 yards. It was bizarre to see Singletary play so much after not tallying any carries last week. Led team in carries in the first half (9 vs. 8). Pierce was held to just a 33% snap share. Woof.
Pierce also had the chance for a massive run blown dead by the whistle. Also, his poor ypc is somewhat contributed to getting stuffed at the goal-line thrice. With Carolina coming after the bye week and the Texans offense line getting healthy, I’d be looking at Pierce as a sharp buy low target. He still started.
He is still a zero in the passing game, but he should have more productive games with Houston playing more competitively.
The entire Cardinals passing game was ineffective. Still, Marquise Brown led with 11 targets and finished with 4 catches for 34 yards. Michael Wilson led the team with 62 receiving yards on 3 catches (4 targets).
Mostly garbage time though. As were Brown’s 11 targets (29% Target share, 183 air yards). Although Josh Dobbs missed Brown early that could have easily been a TD to go along with 3 red-zone targets. He will bounce back.
On the year, Hollywood Brown ranks 14th in the NFL with a 29% Target share and 5th in air yards share (45%). Very cheap on DraftKings this week at $5,300.
The Bengals’ receiving corps was highlighted by Ja’Marr Chase, who received 13 targets and caught 6 passes for 80 yards. Chase’s contributions were significant in moving the ball downfield. Additionally, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon were also essential receiving options, collectively contributing to the Bengals’ passing attack. Boyd scored while catching all 7 targets for 38 yards. Higgins was a major bust – again – with 2 for 20 on 4 targets. He has had one good game this season…Worth noting that he did not play a full-time role – 56% route participation – as he continues to deal with the rib injury. But with a bye week, I think he will be healthier making him a screaming BUY LOW. Again, I say this because his production is going to regress positively. Higgins has always been a fantasy WR2 throughout his entire three-year career. Currently he is WR64. But it’s justified based on the injury and slow start for the offense.
He won’t finish that poorly over the rest of season. The definition of a buy-low WR, with the most fantasy points scored UNDER expectation. Higgins is WR21 in expected points per game. WR58 in actual points per game.
He won’t finish that poorly over the rest of season. The definition of a buy-low WR.
Bye week, then 49ers/Bills.
After Jerry Jeudy had been emerging as the No. 1 WR, Courtland reclaimed No. 1 duties commanding 6 targets for 46 yards with a great TD catch. Jeudy – who was ripped by Steve Smith during pre-game festivities – was a major disappointment. 3 catches for 14 yards on 5 targets (22%). Obviously when the QB throws for just 95 yards all WRs are going to disappoint.
Nobody else saw more than 2 targets. Marvin Mims was not targeted on any of his seven routes run (23% snap share). Seriously Sean Payton. I want to hold Mims. But if you have to make a move, hard to justify holding a guy that barely plays.
Again, this WR room is going to get shaken up before the trade deadline. I’d buy Jeudy for next to nothing with the hopes he gets traded.
Rashee Rice only saw four targets – but caught all of them four 72 yards with 55 coming after the catch. I’ve been saying it since Week 1. This is the only KC WR you want on your fantasy team. He is showing out and is earning more opportunities. This team needs somebody to step up behind Kelce, and Rice looks like that guy.
49% snap share was his highest since Week 3 (blow-out game). Tied for the second most routes run behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Ran a route on 51% of the dropbacks.
Every time he is on the field they are looking to feed him the ball. 31% target rate per route run. And the Justin Watson injury creates more snaps/routes for Rice to take on. Buy the rookie.
Players to Sell
Josh Jacobs carried the load on the ground with 25 rushing attempts, gaining 77 yards. While he didn’t find the end zone, his hard-nosed running style kept the offense moving. Alas, 7 red zone carries resulted in zero TDs. Jacobs ranks 5th in red zone carries but has just two RZ TDs (two TDs all together).
Davante Adams (WR): 91%
Jakobi Meyers (WR): 91%
Michael Mayer (TE): 81%
Josh Jacobs (RB): 81%
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB): 61%
Brian Hoyer (QB): 39%
Austin Hooper (TE): 34%
Tre Tucker (WR): 31%
Jakob Johnson (FB): 24%
Ameer Abdullah (RB): 13%
Hunter Renfrow (WR): 10%— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 16, 2023
Even if Jacobs struggles versus an underrated Bears run defense he should be able to be effective as a receiver.
However, from a bigger picture, I think Jacobs is a sharp sell high.
As alluded to, the Bears have an underrated run defense. The Lions have an elite run defense. Those are the next two matchups for Jacobs, who has been supremely underwhelming this season. Dead last in fantasy points scored above expectation. 2.9 yards per carry on the year.
Raheem Mostert exhibited his explosiveness with 17 carries for 115 yards, averaging an impressive 6.8 yards per carry, and reaching the end zone twice. Caught all 3 targets with another receiving TD while playing 61% of the snaps.
In addition to Mostert’s contribution, Chris Brooks added 28 yards on 6 carries, while Salvon Ahmed provided 23 yards on 6 carries (36% snap share), including a rushing touchdown. Ahmed and Mostert split their routes 50/50.
Brooks came in during garbage time.
Still want to sell high on Mostert. He has 11 TDs this season. But he’s 31 years old and has a long injury track record. Also, both Jeff Wilson Jr. and De’Von Achane will be returning to the lineup in the coming weeks. Considering how excellent Mostert has been, you can get whatever you want for him. Sell high.
Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor shared rushing duties. Moss led the way with 7 carries for 21 yards, finding the end zone with a touchdown run. Taylor recorded 8 carries but was held to 19 yards. Taylor was involved in the passing game as well, catching 5 passes for 46 yards. His ability to contribute as a receiver adds versatility to the Colts’ offense (6 targets). Moss was another key contributor, catching 6 passes for 38 yards, helping move the chains and providing an additional dimension to the offense (7 targets). Moss also ran more routes than JT. Snaps are ticking up for JT, but I don’t think we are going to see Moss disappear from the offense anytime soon. Was on the sell JT train last week, and I am sticking to my guns with two tough matchups coming up.
Calvin Ridley was heavily involved with 8 targets and 4 receptions for 30 yards (29% Target share, 100 air yards). But again, he underwhelmed in the final box score.
As we get farther and farther away from Ridley’s Week 1 boom, reality is starting to set in. Since Week 2, his 18% Target share ranks third on the team. Ranks 50th among all WRs.
Every week it’s so hard to project the Jaguars WRs because they are all so matchup based. I still think selling high on Kirk is a sharp move, as is selling on Ridley. It’s not like this offense is absolutely lighting up the box scores, and it’s so crowded that makes it tough to trust one guy not-named Kirk. And even his production might be boosted since the Zay Jones injury.
All in all, if you can cash out for a strong return, I think your avoiding potential headaches down the road. But in full transparency, if you can’t get any worthwhile returns, they remain holds.
Star running back Alvin Kamara led the ground attack with 19 carries for 68 yards while playing 80% of the snaps. While Kamara didn’t find the end zone in this matchup, his versatility was evident as he contributed in both the rushing and passing game. Kendre Miller only earned 2 carries. AK41 was a straight bell cow.
While his usage remains great – league high 25 touches per game – I am concerned about this being sustainable in the long term with Jamaal Williams‘ potential return. Also don’t love the upcoming schedule or this Saints offense in general.
Derek Carr‘s primary target was Chris Olave, who was targeted 10 times and secured 7 receptions for 96 yards, averaging 13.7 yards per catch. However just a 22% Target share with 157 air yards.
Through 6 games, Olave has a 25% Target share. It’s just rinse and repeat about how many times Carr misses Olave deep on his throws. Therefore, Olave remains a sell for me. He has 4 red-zone targets through 6 games. 1 TD.
James Cook led the rushing attack with 14 carries, gaining 71 yards at an average of 5.1 yards per carry. He did not score a touchdown, and his longest run was 14 yards.
Latavius Murray carried the ball 12 times, accumulating 45 yards with an average of 3.8 yards per carry. Like Cook, he didn’t score a touchdown and had a long run of 12 yards. Cook narrowly edged out Murray in routes run, but the usage overall was essentially a 50/50 split. In fact Murray was highly involved during the beginning of the game – drawing the start and taking the first team carry.
He was also highly involved in the red zone with 4 red-zone carries – as he has done all season.
Each player played 49% of the snaps as Damien Harris left the game with a neck injury on his lone carry.
With Harris sidelined, Murray has a clear path to base work, targets and priority touches in the red zone for Buffalo. Not great for Cook, who was not targeted in this game.
Derrick Henry was the standout player in the rushing attack, amassing 97 yards on just 12 carries, averaging an impressive 8.1 yards per attempt with a massive 63-yard run on a direct snap. He also found the end zone. Henry also chipped in with 2 receptions, gaining 16 yards.
Tyjae Spears, with 15 yards on 4 carries, added depth to the rushing game. He also caught one pass for 48 yards.
And yet again, he out-snapped Henry (56% vs 53%). His role is not going away, and he needs to be held on through the bye weeks. Elite upside if Henry were to suffer an injury/get traded.
In the receiving game, Terry McLaurin was the primary target, receiving 11 targets and catching 6 passes for 81 yards, showcasing his ability to move the chains and create explosive plays. The gameplan was built around targeting TMC at all costs with him posting a 52% Target share.
Considering this has not been nearly what the Commanders have done at any point this season, I’d sell high.
In the receiving game, Drake London emerged as the primary target, receiving 12 targets (27%) and catching 9 passes for an impressive 125 yards, showcasing his ability to create separation and make big plays. After a Week 1 dud, London has been a target hog with a team-high 23% Target share.
Still, I can’t help but view him as a sell-high. Desmond Ridder notoriously plays worse on the road than at home, and that has trickled into London’s splits. On the road this year, he has not exceeded 32 yards or 3 catches.
Quarterback Bryce Young‘s primary target was Adam Thielen, who was targeted an impressive 13 times. Thielen hauled in 11 receptions for 115 yards and found the end zone once, confirming his role as the Panthers’ top receiver (37% Target share).
He is the WR3 in PPR (pending MNF). I’d cash out now. Remember, the Panthers have been very vocal about adding another WR before the trade deadline.
Alexander Mattison had 18 carries but was limited to 44 yards, averaging just 2.4 yards per carry. Despite not finding the end zone, Mattison’s volume of carries allowed the Vikings to maintain possession and control the clock. Mattison dominated the backfield with a 79% snap share.
Additionally, Mattison was involved in the passing game, catching 4 passes for 28 yards on a whopping 7 targets. Owned all the routes. 23% Target share.
Cam Akers had just one carry and one target. Lowest snap share since joining the Vikings. Still, I would hold him.
Still, Mattison’s inefficient play as a rusher as me concerned about his longevity with job. The 49ers are up next as well. Woof. The second-most fantasy points scored under expectation this season.
I also do not think Mattison’s boost as a receiver is a role change. Credit the to Vikings for exposing the Bears’ weakness against the RBs in the passing game coming in with their game plan.
And don’t just take my word for it. Just check the post-game press conference comments from Vikings fans that follow the team closer than I do. They want Mattison straight up benched.
Running back D’Onta Foreman led the ground attack with 15 carries, gaining 65 yards at an average of 4.3 yards per carry. While he didn’t find the end zone, Foreman was solid as the RB1 without Khalil Herbert or Roschon Johnson. 1 target for 2 yards (61% snap share while running a route on 38% of dropbacks).
Newly acquired running back Darrynton Evans (36% snap share) contributed with 9 carries for 32 yards, while backup quarterback Tyson Bagent managed 2 carries, one of which resulted in a rushing touchdown. Evans got the first carry in the Bears backfield, but Foreman started.
This likely forecasts a dreaded committee when Roshon Johnson returns to the lineup after he comes back from the concussion. Sell high for those looking at RJ to be an all-purpose bell cow.
George Pickens was the standout receiver for the Steelers, targeted 10 times (32% Target share). He made 6 receptions for an impressive 130 yards, averaging 21.7 yards per catch, and scored a touchdown on a long 41-yard pass.
Allen Robinson made 5 receptions for 29 yards (9 targets) showcasing his reliability as a possession receiver.
This team won because of their defense – a big reason why they have won any games this year. Much needed bye week is coming up where they can get healthier and work on a new offensive strategy. Whispers…fire Matt Canada.
Still, consider me pessimistic. If able, I would sell high on Pickens. He has made a lot of production ripping off big plays and his Target share can only go down with the eventual returns of Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth.
Johnson is eyeing a Week 7 return as is Pat Freiermuth.
Pickens’ Target share has been 26% through 5 games with a top-10 air yards share (42%). I think Pickens is a great talent, but the offense and his role – having to rely some heavily on contested sideline catches – are just not conducive to sustained fantasy production.
In the rushing department, Jerome Ford led the charge with 17 carries for 84 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Ford also caught both of his targets for 7 yards. Played 50% of the snaps while splitting routes with Kareem Hunt 50/50.
Hunt also contributed significantly with 12 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown, showcasing his versatility. Hunt also started the game and earned 3 carries inside the red zone to Ford’s zero.
Turning into a more 50/50 spit than Ford being the dominant force despite his strong box score. Head coach Kevin Stefanski talked about how they wanted to get Hunt ‘going’ post-game as he gets back into football shape.
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