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Players to Buy
In the running game, Tony Pollard provided a spark with 47 rushing yards on just 11 carries, while adding three targets. He still hasn’t scored – amid the Dallas offense red-zone struggles – but eventually, he’ll hit paydirt. He has 31 red zone touches in four games. Hasn’t scored since Week 1.
Also ignore the final snap count for Pollard. Blow-out win had just five touches in the 2nd half.
If somebody is getting frustrated with Pollard, you gladly take him off their hands with a trade.
Bijan Robinson was the standout running back for Atlanta, rushing for 105 yards on 14 carries. He consistently moved the chains and helped in the receiving game. 5 catches for 32 yards on 5 targets. 76% snap share was very strong. Leads the team in targets through four games (21% Target share).
He continues to be a strong buy low target. Meanwhile, Tyler Allgeier‘s snaps continue to decrease (26%).
Texans and Commanders are the next two matchups. Falcons tend to play much better at home than on the road.
The Jaguars’ running game, led by Travis Etienne, aimed to control the clock. Despite gaining only 55 yards on 20 carries, the ground attack helped sustain drives and control field position. No big runs (long of 7).
Also tallied three catches. 23 touches. 85% snap share. Continues to be a bell cow. Third in the NFL in touches.
Still think ETN’s usage is not reflecting his final box scores. The Jags offense is still finding their footing, as they have had to shuffle the OL.
They get back starting tackle Cam Robinson back soon from suspension.
The offense will need to be up to the tall order with the Bills storming the castle in their second London game in a row in Week 5.
Ezekiell Elliott is going to see “starter snaps.” 40% snap share. Rhamondre Stevenson starts the game. 54% snap share.
Not like it mattered much in a total blow-out performance. But hey, at least the under cashed!
Stevenson led the way with 14 carries for 30 yards while chipping in 2 catches for 10 yards (3 targets). Stevenson’s had all the volume he can handle – 18-plus touches in all four games – and we know he can be efficient. Just hasn’t been the case so far this year. Still a buy low target.
Elliott’s so-called “starter snaps” translated into 2 catches and 6 carries for 16 yards. Sick.
Another tough day at the office for the Bengals offense. Joe Burrow was held under 170 passing yards. Joe Mixon rushed for 67 yards on 14 carries (1 target) but maintained his alpha usage. 79% snap share. Remains a trade for target as one of the few three-down RBs remaining in fantasy football. Attainable with the negative stigma surrounding Cincy.
Ja’Marr Chase finished with 7 for 73 on a team-high 9 targets (33% Target share). Tee Higgins left the game with an injury that was later reported as a rib fracture. Tyler Boyd was second with 7 targets (4 for 26). But he also led the team in air yards (56%, 71).
Trenton Irwin picked up the majority of snaps and routes in Higgins’ absence.
If they can’t get going versus the Cardinals and Seahawks in the next two weeks, it might be over the Bengals.
I still think Chase is worth buying because he can be a true league-winner if things do improve for Cincy down the stretch. Higgins looks like he is going to miss time, which could potentially put Chase through the roof production wise. Already this season, Chase owns a 29% Target share.
Larger note on Cincy. On the first drive the offense looked fine. Burrow scramble early on, the run game was effective versus arguably the best defensive line in the league. Then the Titans absolutely BLASTED Burrow, as their pass rush started to heat up. Bengals couldn’t generate any explosive plays, that the Titans were able to do on their side of the ball. Game. Set. Match.
Quarterback Brock Purdy had a fantastic outing, completing 20 of 21 passes for 283 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. His favorite target was Brandon Aiyuk, who recorded an impressive 148 receiving yards on 6 targets. 129 air yards (79%).
Aiyuk might be my favorite 49ers to be invested in for the rest of season. Over his three healthy games he owns a 27% Target share and league-high 52% air yards share. Whenever San Fran is going downfield, it’s going to Aiyuk.
Running back James Cook was inefficient – 12 for 29 – but he scored a red zone TD! It was a bizzarro turn of events as a long Latavius Murray rush (29 yards) put Cook in command near the end zone. Don’t anticipate him having the red zone role every week, but the limited red-zone looks he is getting the last two weeks is encouraging none of the less. And the fact that he converted matters. Coaches see it.
Only played 40% of the snaps, but he only had three carries in the second half.
Cook also caught a wheel route for a massive 48-yard gain. Not sure how high the market is fully on Cook, but I love targeting him in trades attached to this offense.
Derek Carr constantly kept missing Chris Olave, limiting him to one catch for 4 yards on 6 targets. 146 air yards converted into nothing. Woof. Are we sure that Carr is a good match for Olave a month in?
This was a concern I had entering the year. However, for the short-term would view Olave as a buy-low, as he checks off the boxes of a buy-low air yards WR. One of just 6 WRs with 500-plus air yards this season.
Olave ($6,900 on DraftKings) and Shaheed ($3,800) are intriguing buy-low DFS options as well for the upcoming Week 5 slate.
Patriots and Texans up next, both who are extremely thin at cornerback.
Jaylen Waddle recorded 4 receptions for 46 yards on 5 targets.
Not many defenses have the personnel to limit the Dolphins offense, so you must buy low on some of these poor performances.
The Giants (off a short week at home), Panthers and Eagles are the next three matchups. Look for the Dolphins offense to get right back on track.
Hill and Achane are probably untouchable to acquire, so Waddle remains the priority target. Even after a slow start to the year, he still ranks 15th in yards per route run.
Trevor Lawrence had an okay day, amassing 207 passing yards on 23 completions. He threw one touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley. Ridley only caught two passes including the 30-yard touchdown (7% Target share). The fact that he has been this little involved and disappointing the last three weeks (w/o Zay Jones last two weeks) makes Week 1 look like a mirage. He just hasn’t looked anything like that. With Jones coming back it adds another layer of complexion in the target pecking order.
Last week, I recommended that you sell high on Kirk and buy low on Ridley. Both guys were productive in Week 4. So I think I am going to continue my stance of buying low on Ridley. Not because I think he is a locked-and-loaded WR1 rest of season, but because I think he’s “safer” option to chase with Jones returning. Kirk has undoubtedly benefitted the most from Jones’ absence in the last two and half weeks. And when Jones returns, it could spell trouble for Kirk. Sell high especially ahead of a matchup versus the Bills who have been tough on slot WRs this season. They just held Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in check in Week 4. Meanwhile, Ridley should see more favorable looks on the outside as the Bills defense just lost cornerback, Tre’Davious White, with a season-ending torn ACL injury.
Zay Flowers was quiet in a bad matchup – 3 for 56 on 4 targets. Not worried. Buy low opportunity. Played 98% of the snaps. 100% route participation. Saw nearly half the team’s air yards (47%) and a solid 22% Target share with the Ravens not forced to push the game script against a rookie QB.
Easy game. 30% Target share through the first month of the season. $5.5K on DraftKings in Week 5. Wheels are up.
On the Browns’ side, the offense was led by quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson with Deshaun Watson out. DTR completed just 19 out of 36 passes for 121 yards, zero TDs.
David Njoku was his primary target, securing 6 receptions for 46 yards (7 targets , 21% Target share). Considering it was new QB – not any usage change – that influenced Njoku’s best game to date, best not to read too much into it. Leave him on waivers or drop him.
No Watson killed the fantasy value of Amari Cooper (1 catch, 6 targets) and Elijah Moore (2 for 20, 4 targets). Buy Cooper after the down game with Watson coming back healthy after the bye week.
On the year, Cooper ranks 6th in air yards share.
Deebo Samuel…no catches or targets. Came in banged up. And when one 49ers is hurt/limited all the others FEAST. Well in this case, just two. George Kittle. 1 for 9 despite running a route on all but one of Purdy’s dropbacks.
Woof. Just no need for Samuel/Kittle. Buy low targets.
They will be needed next week versus Dallas. Samuel still played 87% of the snaps with an elite 87% routes run rate.
Brian Robinson was the key contributor in the rushing game, gaining 45 yards on 14 carries and finding the end zone once. He should have scored twice but fumbled into the end zone (recovered by Terry McLaurin). Totaled four red-zone targets. Played 55% of the snaps and ran just one fewer route than Gibson. That’s huge.
Antonio Gibson took a backseat in the receiving game to BRob, who saw 2 targets for Gibby’s one. Positive development for Robinson, who the team just seems to love. If we get him in a full three-down role, he will be a fringe fantasy RB1. Buy high. Could be in for a monster game versus Chicago. He’s currently tied for 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards (pending MNF).
The Buccaneers’ offensive attack primarily revolved around quarterback Baker Mayfield, who was efficient with 25 completions out of 32 attempts for 246 yards and three touchdowns. Mayfield spread the ball effectively among his targets, with Chris Godwin being his favorite, securing 8 receptions for 114 yards. Deven Thompkins and Mike Evans also contributed significantly with 4 catches for 45 yards and 3 catches for 40 yards, respectively. Evans left early with a hamstring injury. Thompkins did not play the most snaps after Evans injury. Trey Palmer (75% snap share) ran a route on nearly 80% of the dropbacks. Thompkins was around 61%.
Godwin blew up with Evans out, and Mayfield has shown he can support at least one fantasy WR every single week. Buy Godwin now, with the TD regression calling his name. Only receiver this year with 7-plus red-zone targets and zero TDs.
I felt like I was on an island last week backing my stance for Isiah Pacheco last week, and he came through BIG. 20 carries for 115 yards and 1 TD on SNF. Caught three balls for 43 on 3 targets. 4 red-zone carries including the score.
Other Chiefs RBs combined for just 5 carries, 19 rushing yards and 2 targets. Dare I say, Pacheco is a bell cow with a 60% snap share. Career. High. Buy high.
Jahmyr Gibbs managers looks away. The rookie RB’s usage returned to “meh” with him playing just 37% of the snaps. Lowest snap rate since Week 1 (27%). Although the touches remained relatively high at 12. 8 for 40 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry) and four receptions on five targets.
Montgomery has scored five touchdowns in just three games, and it’s pretty clear that role is not going away. And in positive game scripts versus plus-matchups, Monty will routinely see 20-plus carries. All in all, it is hard to not view him as at least a backend fantasy RB1 for the rest of the season as a grinder on an above average offense. He has another great matchup on deck versus Carolina in Week 5.
As for Gibbs, I still think there’s enough equity in the offense for him to be a fantasy RB2 the rest of season, with obvious room to grow if his role increases down the stretch (as it typically does for rookies). He’s flashed efficiency and as a pass-catcher (14% Target share).
However, the chances of him unseating Montgomery is very unlikely without an injury. Say what you like about Montgomery stylistically as a rusher, but the Lions LOVE what he is doing. 9th in success rate even at 3.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Gibbs ranks third worst in rushing success rate (36%) despite a superior 4.6 yards per carry.
If I needed wins now, I’d probably trade Gibbs for Monty straight up. In a vacuum I’d still like to buy low on Gibbs – as a bet on talent for a rookie RB that is still offering some value in PPR formats even as the RB2 on his own team. His role is somewhat similar to James Cook – although Gibbs’ rush share is vastly inferior.
Nobody else did much in the passing game as Kirk only threw 19 times. Buy low on guys like Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson etc.
Addison still ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks, despite dropping the goose egg on 1 target. Buy low.
The Chiefs and the Bears up next. I’m sure he will see plenty of usage.
If I were to buy low on any Jets player, it would be Breece Hall.
The plucky Jets gave the Chiefs quite the scare on Sunday night, but them came up just short of the massive upset.
The backfield was hardly used. Breece Hall carried the ball 6 times for 56 yards – big 43-yard gain – while Dalvin Cook went 5 for 16. Return ace Xavier Gipson chipped in two carries for 13 yards.
Hall also added three catches for 13 yards on four targets wrapping his night up with 44% snap share (26 snaps). Cook settled at just 25%.
The time is now to buy Hall. He is slowing edging out Cook, while flashing the explosive upside we saw pre torn ACL last season. With the Jets showing some signs of life vs KC, there’s a chance that Hall can still be a league-winner in the second half of the season.
The Broncos are the league’s worst defense, where we could finally see Hall go NUCLEAR and remind us all why he was drafted so highly. Just $5.4K on DK.
CJ Stroud, with ANOTHER impressive outing. Stroud completed 16 out of 30 passes for an impressive 306 yards and two touchdowns. His primary target was Nico Collins, who had a standout performance with 7 receptions for 168 yards and two touchdowns (9 targets, 33% Target share).
After it was Tank Dell WR1 szn all week, Collins reclaimed the throne.
Through four weeks, Collins ranks third in receiving EPA and 1st in yards after the catch.
All in all, you should you WANT and LIKE both guys. Stroud is good enough to support multiple fantasy weapons. Dell’s probably a nice buy low after a dud (one catch for 16 yards, 3 targets). The rookie also ran the most routes (tied with Robert Woods, who also drew 6 targets) as he has done the past three weeks.
With Collins likely catching tight coverage from A.J. Terrell and Marshon Lattimore over the next two weeks – they also rank second in fewest yards after the catch allowed – we could easily see things shift back toward Dell. Just $4,800 on DraftKings this week.
As for the KC WRs…more nonsense and rotating. However, once again, Rashee Rice stood out above the rest. 17% Target share (5 targets) led all non-Travis Kelce receivers. 3 targets in the red zone where he has been targeted frequently all season. 6 red-zone targets lead all Chiefs this season.
And although his routes are not where we want them to be, he is getting targets when he plays. 32% target rate per route run is the epitome of the flame emoji. More likely his role increases as the season progresses.
Rice is second on the team with a 14% Target share through four games. 2nd in catches (13).
After Week 1, I thought I was being too reactive thinking Rice over Skyy Moore rest of season. Now, it’s obvious that Moore is not going to hit. 14% target rate per route run. Ran fewer routes than both Justin Watson and Maquez Valdes-Scantling in Week 4.
CJ Stroud, with ANOTHER impressive outing. Stroud completed 16 out of 30 passes for an impressive 306 yards and two touchdowns. His primary target was Nico Collins, who had a standout performance with 7 receptions for 168 yards and two touchdowns (9 targets, 33% Target share). As this team gets healthier, specifically the OL, this offense can get even better. That makes all offensive pieces buys on this roster.
The Ravens utilized a committee of running backs. Gus Edwards led the way with 15 carries for 48 yards (69% snap share). Justice Hill went 3 for 33 (12% snap share), Melvin Gordon went 3 for 21 (19% snap share). Gus Bus also earned 3 targets with a shockingly high route participation (65%).
All aboard the Gus Bus.
He’s the only Ravens RB you can rely on. Got the reeling Steelers defense up next, then a juggernaut in the Tennessee Titans.
Players to Sell
Nobody is more hot or cold than the Titans. One week they can’t do anything, the next they just dominate. Derrick Henry got rolling with 122 yards on 22 carries with 1 long rushing TD (1 target, 59% snap share). Also threw a TD at the goal line. Tyjae Spears carried the ball 5 times for 40 yards while adding three catches on 4 targets – but he also still played 53% of the snaps. Spears also ran more routes per usual.
This one is too easy. Sell high on Henry. Again, as I mentioned at the top. This team is super-hot/cold. Sell high while the getting is good. Be afraid of a fierce Colts defensive line in Week 5 on the road. Don’t get things confused. The Titans offensive line is still bad. Bad Ols don’t travel.
And note that Henry’s usage is still nowhere near where it was last season with Spears threating his total workload. Spears is part of the offensive game plan every week.
DJ Moore had a standout game for the Bears, hauling in all 8 of his 9 targets (28% Target share) for 131 yards and a touchdown, showcasing his big-play ability.
But despite an awesome effort from the Bears offense, they still lost. Woof. The fumble six was a killer. Chicago plays the Commanders Thursday night, then Vikings. If the Bears start 0-5, might be the door for their head coach.
We saw last year once this offense got going, they gained momentum. Use that as your selling point.
So, for now, I am mostly holding my Bears skill players or selling for max ROI. Again, the Broncos are probably the worst defense in the NFL. We have seen teams come crashing back to Earth the following week after beating up on Denver’s defense. Although in an interesting scheduling quirk, the first three teams to face Denver played the Bills the week after, going 0-3 versus the spread (2-1 toward the over) with an average margin of loss by 31 points.
In the passing game, Terry McLaurin was Howell’s primary target, receiving 10 targets and making 8 receptions for 86 yards (26% Target share).
Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson also played significant roles in the passing attack, with Samuel making 7 receptions (8 targets) and Dotson adding 4 receptions and a touchdown (9 targets, 23% Target share). Dotson saw a whopping four red-zone targets catching two including the TD.
Through four weeks – McLaurin/Dotson are tied with a 19% team Target share. For that reason, I view TMC as a sell high. Again, like DJ Moore, McLaurin will finish the year as a fantasy WR2. He does every year. So, if you can get a bit more after a strong game, I’d cash out.
The New Orleans Saints took a different approach with their backfield than Tampa Bay, relying heavily on Alvin Kamara in both the running and passing game in his first game back from the suspension. Kamara had a whopping 14 targets, leading to an impressive 13 receptions albeit for 33 yards, showcasing his versatility as a dual threat running back. 70% route participation. 75% snap share. 37% Target share.
However, the fact that the Saints offense struggled mightily does not suggest to me that this exact usage is what we will see every week from New Orleans’ offense. This offense isn’t good right now, and Kamara said as much after the game. “It’s been two years since we had that offense that was rolling.” Woof.
Christian Watson only ran a route on 48% of the dropbacks, as he was on a snap count. However, he was targeted on 20% of his routes (4) and he caught two for 25 yards including a wide-open TD at the goal line.
However, this was after Doubs got tackled inside the 5-yard line after A.J. Dillon was stuffed (shocked).
His routes will increase (like Jones) in Week 5, making him somebody who’s value could increase. However, I think I am in position where I’d like to sell high on Watson after he scored. Because his path to being the No. 1 WR has changed drastically in my opinion. Doubs, Jayden Reed and Musgrave have all shown they can earn targets and be big parts of the Packers offense. If someone is valuing Watson as high as his Round 4 draft capital was during draft season, I’d capitalize.
And although I have been low on Doubs, I might be changing my tune slightly after another strong outing. It’s clear that he and Jordan Love have a connection, and that didn’t change in Week 4 with Watson back in the starting lineup. Doubs was viewed as a candidate that could lead the Packers in catches this season, and so far, he is coming through on the lofty expectations. In PPR leagues, I think he’s another player to seek in trade with his trade value likely not matching his production thus far.
Watson’s return might make him expendable despite how productive he has been. Guy has 12-plus targets in back-to-back games. 26.5% target rate per route run.
In the rushing department, Dameon Pierce led the way with 24 carries for 81 yards, showcasing his ability to grind out tough yardage. 2 targets and one catch for 27 yards. Played a season-high 59% of the snaps. Although the route participation stayed the same (36%).
Devin Singletary added 7 carries for 25 yards and threw a TD to Schultz. Five carries came in the 4th quarter. As this team gets healthier, specifically the OL, this offense can get even better. That makes all offensive pieces buys on this roster.
In the running game, Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders split carries. Hubbard carried the ball 14 times for 41 yards, while Sanders contributed 19 yards on 13 carries. Sanders was questionable entering the game, so I’d have to imagine why there was such a stark split versus the first three weeks. 1st half Sanders had 7 carries for 9 yards.
But Hubbard was very much involved. 2 targets to Sanders’ 3 targets while also running more routes. Also earned 5 red zone carries to Sanders’ 2.
Hubbard also out-snapped Sanders 54% to 43%. Can’t really do much with Sanders given his injury and bad game top try and move him (do it if you can), aside from trying to target Hubbard either off waivers or through trade. Sanders’ receiving usage has been buoying his production which could go away in favor Hubbard. That’s a problem for Sanders, who ranks dead last in rushing success rate this season (31.5%).
Alexander Mattison was the workhorse in the Vikings’ backfield, amassing 95 rushing yards on 17 carries. Cam Akers‘ debut did little to impact him on the surface, as the former Ram carried the ball just 5 times…but 40 yards. 8 yards per carry. Oh. That’s new. And it was TRUE 8 yards per carry. Rushes of 6, 8, 9, 7 and 10.
And Akers – who has been a total zero in the passing game throughout his career – sees two targets to Mattison’s one in his first game as a Viking. Saw 7 routes to Mattison’s 10.
Sell high. Akers’ 7 touches and 29% snap share was already higher than any snap rate or workload Ty Chandler had through three games. Mattison’s 69% snap share was a season low.
Pierre Strong was the standout performer with 5 carries for 49 yards, averaging an impressive 9.8 yards per carry. Although it came all in garbage time for a second straight game. Jerome Ford started but was underwhelming with 9 for 26, but he caught 5 passes on 6 targets. Kareem Hunt also tallied 5 carries, but was not targeted.
Bye week, and then the 49ers up next in Week 6. Not great for Ford. Sell high. Ranks second to last in the NFL in rushing success rate (34%) and total rushing EPA this season. So, although I’ll acknowledge his snaps and receiving usage is encouraging the schedule and Hunt’s potential to take larger chunk concern me long term. Note that in the first half it was just 6 to 4 carries between Ford and Hunt.
George Pickens led the team with 7 targets (two from Trubisky) but caught just 3 for 25. Pat Freiermuth also left with a hamstring injury. The three backups at tight end all split routes and snaps behind him.
This offense is in rough shape. They have the Ravens and their bye week up the next two weeks.
Pickens is the only guy anybody can start just based on volume, but that could go away with the return of Diontae Johnson in a few weeks. And until this team fires Matt Canada, this offense is sunk. Have to imagine it might be the final showing we get of him till the bye week.
Last year with Mitchell Trubisky, Pickens faced the Ravens at home, catching three balls for 78 yards on three targets. Pittsburgh lost that game outright 16-14 with the Ravens starting Tyler Huntley.
In the rushing department, Khalil Herbert led the Bears’ ground attack with 18 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown. 78% snap share. YLTSI.
Roschon Johnson‘s time will have to wait seems like. 5 carries for 13 yards. 1 target. Herbert had 5 targets, catching four for 19 yards. Just a 22% snap share.
And of course, they finally use Herbert the week I boldly predict that RJ takes a bigger role. That’s fantasy football for you.
We saw last year once this offense got going, they gained momentum. Use that as your selling point.
So, for now, I am mostly holding my Bears skill players or selling for max ROI. Again, the Broncos are probably the worst defense in the NFL. We have seen teams come crashing back to Earth the following week after beating up on Denver’s defense. Although in an interesting scheduling quirk, the first three teams to face Denver played the Bills the week after, going 0-3 versus the spread (2-1 toward the over) with an average margin of loss by 31 points.
In the passing game, Jonnu Smith was Ridder’s top target…. receiving 6 passes for 95 yards (6 targets). Wish I could say this was a fluke, but he’s been involved in the offense for the last three games (20% Target share) Woof.
Kyle Pitts…2 for 21. And it’s not a usage issue because Pitts is still running a full allotment of routes as a receiver. The only “change” is improved QB play, which doesn’t seem likely to be coming anytime soon. Pitts must hit on a deep ball (39% team-leading air yards share this season) to actually pay off.
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