Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Waiver Wire Picks
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Outlook
Zay Flowers: Flowers has a 27.3% target share, a 30.4% air-yard share, and a whopping 30.8% first-read share. Among 112 qualified wide receivers, he ranks ninth in target share and 17th in first-read share. Flowers is the WR36 in fantasy, which can be traced to the fact that despite the heavy volume, he hasn’t scored yet. Flowers is the WR23 in expected fantasy points per game. If Jackson attacks deep this week, it will be with Flowers, who leads the team with eight deep targets. Flowers will run about 70% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (69.6% catch rate and 102.4 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (77.8% catch rate and 137.3 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR2/3
Jordan Addison: In Week 5, Addison still only had a 66% route run rate, although he did see a 19.1% target share and a 33.2% air-yard share while producing 1.94 YPRR (18.8% first-read share). With Jefferson out, I expect T.J. Hockenson to lead this team in targets most weeks, but Addison is also in the mix for that weekly crown. Overall, this season, Addison has a 13.7% target share, a 23.9% air-yard share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 15.4% first-read share. The Bears utilize zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (81%), which will be a big boost for Addison this week. Against zone, his YPRR jumps from 1.65 to 2.06, and his fantasy pointer per route run increases from 0.41 to 0.46. Among 71 qualifying receivers with at least 75 routes against zone coverage this season, Addison ranks 22nd in YPRR and 15th in fantasy points per route run (immediately behind D.J. Moore). Week 6 Positional Value: WR2
Zack Moss: Last week, Moss exploded with 25 touches and 195 total yards while playing 80% of the snaps. The snap share will decrease this week, but it’s fair to question how much. I don’t see Taylor pushing for 60-70% of the snaps this week, and honesty, 50% of the snaps would surprise me. Among 63 qualifying backs, he ranks 31st in explosive run rate, 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have shut down zone runs with the third-lowest yards per carry and second-lowest success rate allowed (Moss 79.8% zone). Week 6 Positional Value: RB3
Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the only fantasy-viable Jets wide receiver worth discussing. He is the WR30 in fantasy points per game with a 26.7% target share, a 43.7% air-yard share, and a 44% first-read share. Wilson ranks seventh among wide receivers in red zone targets. Wilson will run about 71% of his routes against Darius Slay (71.1% catch rate and 102.7 passer rating) and James Bradberry (55% catch rate and 107.5 passer rating). Philly has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. The Eagles have also given up the 12th-most PPR points per target to boundary wide receivers. Week 6 Positional Value: WR3
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