Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 5 wrapped and a lot to recap from ALL the action! Hopefully, you have liked the new version of the 2023 usage report. While slightly altered from previous installments, I think it packs a punch that is exactly what fantasy managers want and NEED as they make transactions heading into the next week.
Again, we live in the year 2023, where bite-size and easy-to-digest content is the way, the masses consume content. My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data, so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
As always, I’ll be citing data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players who are coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about. Note that If I omit a certain player(s), it’s likely because their role/usage did not change from the week prior. Want to save valuable space for players whose stock is rising/falling, as this is where we can take advantage as savvy fantasy gamers.
Here is my entire Week 6 fantasy football forecast. Below we dive into a few notable players.
Fantasy Football Forecast
Atlanta Falcons
Buy Bijan Robinson, Sell Kyle Pitts/Drake London, Add Jonnu Smith
Bijan Robinson carried the ball 14 times, gaining 46 yards with an average of 3.3 yards per carry. Although he didn’t find the end zone (scored on 1 of his two targets in the red zone) his consistent running provided valuable yardage.
Tyler Allgeier contributed significantly to the rushing game, with 17 attempts for 40 yards, averaging 2.4 yards per carry. Desmond Ridder also made a contribution on the ground, rushing for 10 yards and scoring a goal-line touchdown.
Bijan Robinson (RB) – 47 (61%)
Jonnu Smith (TE) – 49 (64%)
Drake London (WR) – 66 (86%)
Kyle Pitts (TE) – 41 (53%)
K. Hodge (WR) – 37 (48%)
Tyler Allgeier (RB) – 34 (44%)
MyCole Pruitt (TE) – 35 (45%)
Mack Hollins (WR) – 30 (39%)
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB) – 5 (6%)— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 9, 2023
B-Rob’s 318 rushing yards are the third-most in the NFL, but he has zero rushing TDs. That will not sustain. Buy low.
Ridder (undefeated at home in both college/pros) completed 28 of 37 passes for a total of 329 yards! He threw one touchdown pass and didn’t record any interceptions.
The Falcons’ receiving corps was actively involved in the game, with several players being targeted.
Kyle Pitts was the leading receiver, being targeted 11 times and catching 7 passes for 87 yards. He averaged 12.4 yards per reception. Have a day! SELL HIGH.
Drake London demonstrated his receiving skills with 6 receptions for 78 yards, averaging 13 yards per catch (9 targets). Again…sell high. Zero catches in the first half.
Ridder may never throw for 300-plus yards ever in his career.
No. 2 tight end Jonnu Smith made 6 receptions for 67 yards, showcasing his consistency as a target. 4 straight weeks of consistent usage.
On the year, Smith and Pitts have identical 20% target shares. London is at 19%, followed by Robinson (18%).
Also, as a side note, KhaDarel Hodge played ahead of Mack Hollins.
Commanders at home looks like a nice spot for this Falcons offense in Week 6. So, if you are “stuck” with Falcons WRs/TEs play them. But I’d be shipping them off even with a solid matchup.
Carolina Panthers
Sell Miles Sanders, Add Jonathan Mingo, Chuba Hubbard
Chuba Hubbard carried the ball 9 times and gained 35 yards, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Earned two red-zone opportunities.
Miles Sanders contributed 32 yards on 7 carries, with an average of 4.6 yards per carry. Sanders led in carries in the first half (6 to 3) and started.
Laviska Shenault had 5 carries. Not nothing.
1 target for Sanders, two for Hubbard. Sanders ran more routes.
The second straight game where Hubbard out-snapped Sanders. This looks like a full-blown committee as Sanders has no injury excuses this week compared to last.
Chuba Hubbard (RB) – 34 (48%)
Miles Sanders (RB) – 33 (46%)
Hayden Hurst (TE) – 42 (59%)
Ian Thomas (TE) – 15 (21%)
Tommy Tremble (TE) – 14 (20%)
DJ Chark (WR) – 70 (99%)
Adam Thielen (WR) – 69 (97%)
Jonathan Mingo (WR) – 61 (86%)
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR) – 17 (24%)— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 9, 2023
Quarterback Bryce Young commanded the Panthers’ passing game:
Young completed 25 of 41 passes for a total of 247 yards. He threw three touchdown passes but also recorded two interceptions.
Adam Thielen was the standout target, being targeted 13 times (37% target share) and catching 11 passes for 107 yards. He averaged 9.7 yards per reception and scored a late touchdown.
Jonathan Mingo made 5 receptions for 48 yards, showcasing his reliability as a target (7 targets, 20% target share). He put Terrace Marshall Jr. back on the bench.
D.J. Chark contributed 42 yards on 3 receptions, averaging 14 yards per catch, and scored a touchdown (6 targets). 3 red-zone targets.
The Dolphins, Texans and Colts over the next three games.
The fact that Young was able to support fantasy weapons and be fantasy-viable himself puts him and his pass-catchers on the waiver wire list.
Both Chark and Mingo have 30% or higher air yard shares this season, with Mingo boasting the higher target share 18% vs. 12%). Mingo is also coming off his best game to date. The first play was a pass to the rookie.
Think I prefer chasing the rookie than the boom-or-bust Chark off waivers. 7-plus targets in Young’s last two games. Chark has totaled fewer than 3.5 targets per game in 3 games with Young.
Tennessee Titans
Sell Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Avoid Chigoziem Okonkwo
Derrick Henry carried the ball 13 times for 43 yards, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Although he didn’t find the end zone, his rushing efforts contributed to ball control. He also tried to throw another TD pass, but it was just out of bounds.
Tyjae Spears showcased his versatility with 7 carries for 34 yards, averaging an impressive 4.9 yards per carry. He also scored a rushing touchdown on a cool end-around designed run, displaying his ability to finish drives. Spears contributed with 4 receptions for 35 yards (5 targets), demonstrating his ability to make short and intermediate catches to move the chains. Henry also caught 3 balls on 3 targets.
Spears – per usual – also ran more routes. Both RBs also played more than 50% of the snaps
DeAndre Hopkins (WR) – 50 (83%)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine – 42 (70%)
Derrick Henry (RB) – 37 (62%)
Chris Moore (WR) – 37 (62%)
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE) – 35 (58%)
Tyjae Spears (RB) – 31 (52%)
Trevon Wesco (TE) – 28 (47%)
Josh Whyle (TE) – 22 (37%)
Kyle Philips (WR) – 13 (22%)— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 9, 2023
Henry’s upside continues to be limited with Spears in the fold. Sell the Big Dog.
DeAndre Hopkins was a primary target, receiving 11 passes and catching 8 of them for a total of 140 yards (32% target share). It was the perfect storm for Hopkins, with Treylon Burks out in a plus-matchup versus a weak secondary. He was also healthier than he had been in the past weeks.
Still, I’d sell high to any receiver attached to the Titans passing game. Still hasn’t scored a TD this season, which limits him in half-PPR formats. Don’t love the schedule coming up either.
Chigoziem Okonkwo also played a significant role with 5 receptions for 33 yards, showcasing his versatility in the short passing game. 9 targets! With no Treylon Burks. Still, 5 for 33 is hardly worth any major victory laps. Big drop in the red zone.
Leave him on waivers. 65% route participation is also not great.
Ravens (London), bye week Falcons and Steelers up next. Tennessee plays better at home so look forward to back-to-back home games. Too bad London’s not actually home.
Baltimore Ravens
Add Justice Hill, Buy Zay Flowers
The Ravens’ rushing attack was led by a committee of running backs. Starter Gus Edwards had 12 rushing attempts, gaining 48 yards, and averaged 4.0 yards per carry.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson displayed his dual-threat abilities, rushing for 45 yards on 6 carries, averaging an impressive 7.5 yards per rush.
Justice Hill contributed with 7 carries for 32 yards, including a touchdown run, showcasing the depth of the Ravens’ backfield. Hill made contributions in the passing game, catching all 4 passes targeted to him while running a route on 40% of dropbacks. Looked spry in the receiving game but lost a fumble that led to a Steelers field goal. Edwards was not targeted.
Zay Flowers (WR) – 69 (99%)
Mark Andrews (TE) – 66 (94%)
Nelson Agholor (WR) – 41 (59%)
Justice Hill (RB) – 39 (56%)
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR) – 37 (53%)
Gus Edwards (RB) – 30 (43%)
Rashod Bateman (WR) – 27 (39%)
Isaiah Likely (TE) – 8 (11%)
Devin Duvernay (WR) – 6 (9%)— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 9, 2023
After it appeared that Edwards was “the” guy for the Ravens, they went back to Hill as the snap leader and favorite in the red zone. Add Hill if you’re in a pinch, but don’t expect too much versus a fierce Titans defense in Week 6. At least we have just a two-headed backfield with no other Ravens RB seeing any touches.
Lamar Jackson completed 22 out of 38 passes for 236 yards. While he didn’t throw any touchdowns, he did have one interception.
Rookie Zay Flowers was Lamar Jackson‘s top target, receiving 11 passes (29% target share). He caught 5 of them for 73 yards, demonstrating his ability to gain significant yardage on receptions. Ravens WR1. 29% target share this season. And he left production on the table.
Massive game coming versus Tennessee this weekend.
Tight end Mark Andrews was a reliable target for Jackson, receiving 10 passes and making 6 receptions for 65 yards.
Nelson Agholor caught 4 of 5 targets for 64 yards, averaging 16 yards per reception. However, he dropped a long pass that could have easily gone for 6.
Other receivers, including Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman, and Devin Duvernay, were not involved in the passing attack. Beckham got banged up early on and Bateman was plagued by drops (including a TD) on his 3 targets in his first game back. Bateman is still playing behind Agholor in snaps/routes.
Titans (London), Lions and Cardinals are up next.
Have to expect a major bounce-back game for the Ravens after they totally blew a game that could have easily won versus the Steelers. Blown 4th downs and points in the red zone. Multiple dropped TDs. A blocked punt resulted in a safety.
-Andrew Erickson
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