Fantasy Football Outlook: Zay Flowers, CeeDee Lamb, Mark Andrews, Brandin Cooks

Hello and welcome to the Week 5 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here are all of my takeaways and actions ahead of Week 5. Below we dive into a few notable players.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pass Rates

In the past two seasons with Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator, the Dallas Cowboys had a PROE of -2%. Through four weeks of 2022, Dallas currently sits at -2.6%, but just had their highest single-game PROE of the season in Week 4. Dallas’ schedule is about to ramp up, though. After starting the season with the easiest schedule (per ESPN’s FPI), their rest-of-season schedule is the second most difficult. I mention this because Dallas hasn’t been forced to push the ball through the air as all three of their wins this season have come by at least 20 points. According to PFF, Dallas’ tough schedule is based more on facing better offenses than an elite stretch of defenses, so one can hope that these opponents will push Dallas to pass more. This would benefit CeeDee Lamb greatly, as he’s seen more than six targets in a game just twice this season after failing to do so in only three games last year. This has benefit Jake Ferguson, who has exactly seven targets in three of four games this season, putting him at a solid 18.5% target share (second on the team). Ferguson is still only running a route on 58.7% of the team’s dropbacks, giving him a solid 0.28 TPRR, so hopefully we see that increase. Michael Gallup (77% routes run) and Brandin Cooks (80% routes run) are still on the field, but they are most dependent on the Cowboys’ pass volume increasing. Still, I’m buying into the Cowboys’ passing attack if I’m in need of receiving production.
- Action: buy Dallas Cowboys pass-catchers
Heading into the season, fantasy prognosticators were excited at the prospect of the Baltimore Ravens’ new-look offense under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. In the first two weeks, Baltimore’s PROE was at 0% and 3.0%, but the Ravens’ tendencies have reverted to their old self with PROE totals of -4.6% and -9.2% in the past two games. This could be a symptom of Baltimore dealing with injuries to their wide receivers (Odell Beckham has been out the past two weeks while Rashod Bateman was out in Week 4). On the bright side, the decreased passing has come with an increase in rushing for Lamar Jackson. Jackson has totaled nine and six designed rushes in the past two games after having just six designed rushes in the first two games combined. Though he only had four targets, Zay Flowers had a 13.8-yard average depth of target in Week 4, which is encouraging after Flowers was targeted very close to the line of scrimmage in Week 3. Flowers, who is running a route on over 90% of the team’s dropbacks and has a very healthy 28.4% target share is the only worthwhile part of the Ravens’ passing attack outside of Jackson and Mark Andrews.
- Action: drop Rashod Bateman (if you haven’t already), hold Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews