Fantasy Football Outlook: Zack Moss, Jaylen Warren, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor

Hello and welcome to the Week 8 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Let’s dive into a few notable players this week.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Running Back Usage

This past week was the perfect situation and game script for Jahmyr Gibbs to have his best game of the season, which is why he’s the ideal sell-high candidate. In the game against Baltimore, Gibbs set season-high marks in total opportunities (22), targets (11), routes per dropback rate (76%), running back touch share (83%), and, as a result, Half-PPR fantasy points (23.1). The two other times in which Gibbs’ running back touch share and snap share both eclipsed 40% included the other game that David Montgomery was inactive and the Week 2 shootout with Seattle that had Detroit trailing for most of the 4th quarter. We saw both of those scenarios play out in Sunday’s game once again, helping Gibbs thrive in his pass-catching role. It should also be noted that Gibbs only got five of his 21 touches in the first half Not to mention, Craig Reynolds came into the game dealing with a hamstring and toe injury that, along with the game script, limited him to just four opportunities on a 9% snap share. I, along with every other fantasy pundit, want Gibbs to work out and be the player we were all hoping for entering the season. But, this played out almost too perfectly for Gibbs. With Montgomery’s future status still uncertain, now is the time to cash out as I don’t expect this usage to continue once Montgomery returns to the lineup.
- Action: sell Jahmyr Gibbs
For the first time this season, we saw a slight shift in the usage of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ backfield. Prior to Pittsburgh’s Week 6 bye, Najee Harris was treated as the primary back over Jaylen Warren, but not by much. Harris had a 55% running back touch share compared to 44% for Warren in addition to Harris out-snapping Warren 52% to 46%, respectively. Then, in the Week 7 matchup against the Rams, Harris was given 17 total opportunities while Warren was given a season-low 8 opportunities, only the second time he’s been below double-digit opportunities. Harris’ 71% running back touch share was also the highest of the season as were his five HVTs. He got those five HVTs thanks to three touches inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, and Warren has only two such touches the entire season combined. I still think Warren is a solid fantasy running back who can be started in the flex, especially when Pittsburgh faces a potential game script that might force them to pass more. Warren’s 21% routes run rate was a season-low after being above 40% in each of the previous four games, but Kenny Pickett attempted just 25 passes in Week 7, the second-fewest in a game this season. That said, if this slight increase in usage is a sign to come for Harris I want to be in on him before he has a major game, so I’m conservatively buying in leagues where I’m struggling with running back production.
- Action: buy Najee Harris, hold Jaylen Warren
When Jonathan Taylor returned to action in Week 5, he was limited to 10 snaps and seven total touches. Following that game, the Colts announced that they planned to ramp up Taylor’s workload, and that’s exactly what they’ve done. Taylor’s opportunities, snap share, and routes run rate have all increased in each of the past three games, culminating with 22, 50%, and 50% this past week, respectively. Despite that, Zack Moss has still remained rather heavily involved in the offense as he’s been given at least 14 opportunities in each of the three games that Taylor played including two games with at least 20 opportunities. Moss’ snap share has dropped down in the last three weeks and he got just one of the five HVTs this past week. After giving Taylor a hefty extension, it made a ton of sense that Indianapolis would start to force-feed the ball to him in an effort to prove the contract was worth it. But, Moss has shown enough value that he won’t be put to the wayside anytime soon. I’m less confident in Moss as more than a flex fantasy option, but he’ll continue to be worth a roster spot while Taylor should be started every week going forward.
- Action: buy Jonathan Taylor, hold Zack Moss