Fantasy Football Outlook: Zach Ertz, Gardner Minshew, Jonnu Smith, Justice Hill

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Justice Hill: In Hill’s two healthiest games this season, he has played between 56-57% of the snaps, averaging 12.5 touches and 49 total yards. Hill will also face tough sledding against the Titans’ run defense this week. Among 63 qualifying backs, he ranks 37th in explosive run rate and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. Hill will also be stifled on his gap runs (58.6%) this week against a team that has held gap backs to the ninth-lowest success rate. Week 6 Positional Value: RB4

Jonnu Smith: Smith has been operating as Atlanta’s WR3 since Week 2. Since that week, he has a 64.2% route run rate, an 18.7% target share, and a 22.4% first-read share. Over the last four weeks among 36 qualifying tight ends, Smith ranks tenth in target share, second in receiving yards per game, second in YPRR, and fifth in first read share. Since Week 2, Smith has been the TE10 in fantasy. We need to put more respect on his name because he has been balling out. The biggest issue with trusting Smith this week is that the matchup is brutal for tight ends. Washington has allowed the fourth-lowest receiving yards and third-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 6 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Gardner Minshew: With Anthony Richardson sidelined, Minshew will be the Colts’ starter for the foreseeable future this season. Among 34 qualified passers, he ranks 22nd in passing grade with the third-lowest aDOT and the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate. Among that same sample, Minshew is 26th in fantasy points per dropback with the third-lowest aDOT. The Colts coaching staff has shown faith in Minshew with their increase of the neutral pace and passing rates. Even if Minshew is just asked to play point guard, he should be able to do so successfully this week. Jacksonville has been a pass funnel this season, allowing the tenth-highest yards per attempt, fifth-most passing yards and ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Minshew should be able to dink and dunk with increased efficiency this week. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most YAC and eighth-highest YAC per reception to wide receivers. Week 6 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Zach Ertz: Ertz is the TE15 in fantasy who has been soaking up monster volume. He has a 21.9% target share, a 20.6% air-yard share, and a 23.8% first-read share. He hasn’t been efficient in any way with this volume, though. He is fourth in raw target volume but only 19th in receiving yards and 19th in YPRR. He is fourth in red zone targets among tight ends. The Rams have been a tight-end production funnel with how good their outside corners have played. Los Angeles has given up the third-most receiving yards, second-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Ertz will post ugly TE1 numbers this week. Week 6 Positional Value: TE1