let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 4, to prepare for success in Week 5. The Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 5 slate.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 4’s action…
My NFL Week 3 Fantasy Football…
Rapid Reactions?
And Major Takeaways?
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023
Along with snap counts…
Week 4 Fantasy Football Snap Counts
To prepare your fantasy team for Week 5…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023
Note the bye weeks for Week 5:
- Cleveland Browns
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
And stay ahead of the game for Week 6 bye weeks:
- Green Bay Packers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Football Forecast
Carolina Panthers
Sell Miles Sanders, Sell/Hold Adam Thielen, Add Chuba Hubbard, Drop Hayden Hurst, Avoid No. 2 Carolina WRs
On the Panthers’ side, quarterback Bryce Young led the charge, trying to keep pace with the Vikings’ offense. Young completed 25 of 32 pass attempts for 204 yards, displaying accuracy and composure in the pocket. However, he did not manage to throw any touchdown passes in this matchup. Adam Thielen also had a productive outing, hauling in 7 receptions for 76 yards (8 targets, 26% target share).
Still want to sell “high” on Thielen as an older WR, but chances are you can’t get much for him. Would hold at this point.
Terrace Marshall Jr. emerged as Young’s primary target, recording 9 receptions for 56 yards (10 targets, 26% target share). Marshall showcased his ability to make tough catches and move the chains effectively. Don’t anticipate this to continue should rookie Jonathan Mingo return after his concussion. And again, for a second straight week, the Marshall targets were mostly all in the second half. In the first half, just 3 catches for 9 yards on 4 targets.
Still, it is notable that he has 8-plus targets in back-to-back weeks with 14 catches for 91 yards.
D.J. Chark also had a notable poor performance, contributing 28 receiving yards on 2 receptions (3 targets). He played the most snaps (92%) but did nothing. Young missed him deep and in the red zone.
It’s tough because we could see one of the Panthers WRs not named Thielen pop versus the Lions and/or Dolphins…but it’s tough to parse through. Routes suggest Chark (as does the revenge game narrative) so I think he might be the target off waivers. But it’s risky no matter which Carolina WR you go to. Mingo’s return further complicates the target pecking order behind Thielen as he will see starter snaps as a second-round pick.
In the running game, Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders split carries. Hubbard carried the ball 14 times for 41 yards, while Sanders contributed 19 yards on 13 carries. Sanders was questionable entering the game, so I’d have to imagine why there was such a stark split versus the first three weeks. 1st half Sanders had 7 carries for 9 yards.
But Hubbard was very much involved. 2 targets to Sanders’ 3 targets while also running more routes. Also earned 5 red zone carries to Sanders’ 2.
Hubbard also out-snapped Sanders 54% to 43%. Can’t really do much with Sanders given his injury and bad game to try and move him (do it if you can), aside from trying to target Hubbard either off waivers or through trade. Sanders’ receiving usage has been buoying his production which could go away in favor of Hubbard. That’s a problem for Sanders, who ranks dead last in rushing success rate this season (31.5%).
The Lions and Dolphins are up next for Carolina.
Miami Dolphins
Buy Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Speaking of Dolphins…
D’Andre Achane was a force to be reckoned with on the ground, accumulating 101 rushing yards on just 8 carries, including two impressive touchdowns. Achane’s explosive runs were a highlight of the Dolphins’ offense. 6 of his touches came in the red zone. Raheem Mostert carried the ball 7 times for 9 yards.
Both RBs saw five targets, and each caught 3 passes. I ranked Achane above Mostert this week, which was against the ECR rankings. I’m sure consensus will have Achane ranked above Mostert for Week 5 and beyond.
Achane finished with a 60% snap share to Mostert’s 43%. Mostert also lost a fumble. It’s the rookie’s job after he also led the backfield in routes run (69%). Told you to sell high last week, but that ship may have sailed. Long-term injury downside and Jeff Wilson‘s return are going to hurt Mostert.
Braxton Berrios was Tua Tagovailoa‘s favorite target, receiving 6 targets and making 6 receptions for 43 yards, including a crucial touchdown catch. Team-high 6 targets (18% target share).
Jaylen Waddle recorded 4 receptions for 46 yards on 5 targets. Durham Smythe resumed TE1 duties – 4 for 41 yards on 4 targets – while Tyreek Hill was erased by the Bills defense. 3 for 58 yards on 5 targets but with a 29% air yard share.
Not many defenses have the personnel to limit the Dolphins offense, so you must buy low on some of these poor performances.
The Giants (off a short week at home), Panthers and Eagles are the next three matchups. Look for the Dolphins offense to get right back on track.
Hill and Achane are probably untouchable to acquire, so Waddle remains the priority target. Even after a slow start to the year, he still ranks 15th in yards per route run.
Buffalo Bills
Buy James Cook, Add Dalton Kincaid, Sell Gabe Davis
Josh Allen had a sensational outing, completing 21 of his 25 pass attempts (wow) for an impressive 320 yards and four touchdown passes. Also scored a rushing TD.
Stefon Diggs was Allen’s primary target, receiving 7 targets and making 6 receptions for an impressive 120 yards and three touchdowns.
Gabriel Davis also had a standout performance, recording 3 receptions for 61 yards, including a touchdown catch. 3 targets (12%). As is always the case with Davis. You sell high after his strong games for more consistent assets. Just a 14% target share with 3 TD grabs in as many weeks.
Dalton Kincaid finished second with 5 targets but caught just four for 27 yards (20% target share). His route participation was boosted substantially (79%).
Dawson Knox was not involved after running a route on just 48% of routes. Noteworthy that the Bills rookie tight end got a major boost.
Running back James Cook was inefficient – 12 for 29 – but he scored a red zone TD! It was a bizzarro turn of events as a long Latavius Murray rush (29 yards) put Cook in command near the end zone. Don’t anticipate him having the red zone role every week, but the limited red-zone looks he is getting the last two weeks is encouraging none of the less. And the fact that he converted matters. Coaches see it.
Only played 40% of the snaps, but he only had three carries in the second half.
Cook also caught a wheel route for a massive 48-yard gain. Not sure how high the market is fully on Cook, but I love targeting him in trades attached to this offense.
Los Angeles Rams
Add Ronnie Rivers, Tyler Higbee
Matthew Stafford had a solid performance, completing 27 of 40 pass attempts for 319 yards and one game-winning touchdown strike.
Kyren Williams was the standout in the Rams’ ground game, amassing 103 rushing yards on 25 carries and finding the end zone twice. Ronnie Rivers was more involved – 9 carries for 47 yards, 2 targets, 28% target share – but he’s not taking the job. Sean McVay spoke how he wanted to get more RBs snaps, and not have Williams see a 100% snap share every single week. Kyren finished with a 72% snap share and still played 61 snaps. That was more snaps than he played in Weeks 1 and 3.
Rams
P Nacua (WR) | 78 | 95%
T Higbee (TE) | 77 | 94%
V Jefferson (WR) | 71 | 87%
T Atwell (WR) | 64 | 78%
K Williams (RB) | 59 | 72%
R Rivers (RB) | 23 | 28%
B Skowronek (WR) | 22 | 27%
B Hopkins (TE) | 8 | 10%— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023
Still, Rivers’ usage is a strong indicator he is the next man up in case of a Williams injury. Needs to be added everywhere. The Rams RB1 role is too valuable.
Rookie Puka Nacua emerged as Stafford’s favorite target, receiving 10 targets and making 9 receptions for an impressive 163 yards and a touchdown.
The rookie has been a MONSTER this year. 32% target share (5th). 52 targets (1st). 2nd in receiving yards (501). 1st in catches (39).
Tyler Higbee (10 targets, team-high 28% target share, 85 air yards) and Tutu Atwell (9 targets, 23% target share) also played pivotal roles in the passing game. Both caught 5 passes. However, my best guess is that these two take the biggest hits when Cooper Kupp returns.
However, in the case of Higbee, the Week 5 matchup versus the Eagles calls for his services. They rank dead last versus tight ends, allowing the most fantasy points to TEs this season. Higbee ran a route on 89% of dropbacks in Week 4…right in line with his 90% rate from Week 3.
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