Fantasy Football Outlook: Tyler Allgeier, Josh Allen, Jerome Ford, Sam Howell

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Sam Howell: Howell is a volume monster QB2. He is fifth in pass attempts and ninth in passing yards. If Howell had the rushing production that we were promised to go along with this volume, he’d be a top-12 fantasy quarterback right now. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Howell ranks 23rd in passing grade and 17th in yards per attempt. His arm talent has been on a special level in terms of accuracy. He is sixth-best in highly accurate throw rate (immediately behind Trevor Lawrence) and second in adjusted completion rate. New York has been a giving pass defense with the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the tenth-highest passer rating, and the tenth-most passing touchdowns allowed. Two keys to victory for Howell in Week 7 are his ability to rip apart man coverage and his handling of the blitz. The Giants utilize man coverage at the fourth-highest rate (35.6% per Fantasy Points Data). Against man coverage, Howell ranks (among 33 quarterbacks) eighth-best in yards per attempt and 17th in fantasy points per dropback with the tenth-best passer rating. New York blitzes at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks versus the blitz, Howell is 28th in yards per attempt, but he has the fourth-best blitz-adjusted completion rate (fifth-lowest aDOT versus the blitz). Week 7 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier’s snap rates and workload have bounced all over the map this season. His usage has been highly correlated to the scoreboard. If the Falcons are trailing a ton like they have been recently, his touch count has suffered. In their three wins, Allgeier has averaged 17 touches, but in their three losses, he has only seen nine touches per game. He has not been efficient with his work when he has gotten touches. Among 53 qualifying running backs, he ranks 36th in explosive run rate, 36th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 21st in yards after contact per attempt. With Tampa Bay favored and this stacking up as a tougher matchup on the ground, this is a good week to sit Allgeier. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

Josh Allen: Allen is dealing with a shoulder issue, but it doesn’t seem like it will sideline him. Allen is the QB2 in fantasy, ranking third in passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, and third in adjusted completion rate. His last five games against the Foxborough hoodies have been all over the map, with two outings below 17 fantasy points and two games with 22.8 and 38.9 fantasy points. New England’s secondary ranks 20th in yards per attempt with the 13th-highest passer rating and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate allowed. The Patriots continue to operate in man coverage at the third-highest rate (36.3%) in the NFL. Against man, Allen is 11th in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, and fourth-best in adjusted completion rate. Allen will crush again in Week 7. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1

Jerome Ford: Ford has played 50-62% of the snaps weekly, with Hunt on the roster averaging 15 touches and 62.4 total yards. He has finished as the RB7, RB24, and RB24 in weekly fantasy scoring (PPR). Ford has been impressive as a rusher, ranking 21st in explosive run rate, 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt (among 53 qualified rushers). Indy has allowed the 12th-lowest missed tackles per attempt and yards per carry to gap runs (Ford 56.7% gap). Week 7 Positional Value: RB3