Fantasy Football Outlook: Tank Dell, James Cook, Tyler Boyd, Raheem Mostert

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

James Cook: Cook is the RB17 in fantasy, averaging 16.8 touches and 102.8 total yards. Last week, he played a season-low 40% of the snaps while losing routes to Latavius Murray. I’m chalking this up as a one-week variance. This feels very matchup and game-plan-specific as the Bills ran the ball 26 times (counting Allen’s rushing attempts) while throwing on 25 times. Cook is not a 230 lb bruiser. If you’re looking to drop the early down hammer on a team, you’re going to work in Latavius Murray and Damien Harris to help shoulder the load, which the Bills did while lessening the route running on Cook’s plate. Entering Week 4, Cook ranked 15th in route run rate and tenth in routes run among running backs. I highly doubt his receiving role will be cut into by Murray moving forward. Among 58 qualifying running backs, Cook ranks 21st in explosive run rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Cook faces an uphill climb this week against a tough run defense, but there is a silver lining. Jacksonville has given up the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackle per attempt rate, and the fifth-best stuff rate. All of that sounds hideous, but Jacksonville has also given up the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.49). A whopping 69% of Cook’s runs have been on gap plays. Jacksonville has also clamped down on backs in the passing game. While they have allowed the eighth-most receptions, they have held backs to the tenth-lowest yards per reception. Week 5 Positional Value: low-end RB1/high-end RB2

Tank Dell: Since Dell has become a full-time starter in this offense, he has an 18.5% target share, a 27.9% air-yard share, and a 20.8% first-read share. Among the three starting Texan wide receivers over this span, he ranks third, first, and third in these categories. Since Week 2, among 82 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 27th in receiving grade and 17th in YPRR. He ranks fourth on the team in red zone targets with only one look inside the 20. Dell will run about 71% of his routes against Terrell and Okudah. Week 5 Positional Value: WR3/4

Raheem Mostert: Mostert has taken a backseat to Achane. He played 43% of the snaps last week with ten touches and 45 total yards. Miami could look to chew up the ground and the clock this week, so while Mostert isn’t the lead back anymore, he has good flex value this week. Mostert doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks fifth in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. Week 5 Positional Value: RB3/strong flex play

Tyler Boyd: Boyd has been a declining player over the last few seasons. This season, against zone coverage, he has a 12.4% target share, a 15.4% air yard share, and a 16.9% first-read share. His YPRR against zone is a nausea-inducing 0.81. Boyd has drawn only one red zone target. He will run about 89% of his routes against Jalen Thompson (63.6% catch rate and 89.2 passer rating). The last time that Boyd eclipsed 70 receiving yards (including the playoffs) was Week 7 of last season, and he only managed that twice last year. Week 5 Positional Value: WR4/5