If it’s been a rough start to the season for you, by all means, feel free to shake your fist at the heavens and curse the fantasy gods for smiting you. But fight on, friends. None of us have been mathematically eliminated from the fantasy playoffs yet. Miracles do happen.

Fight on.

Here are my tiers and rankings for the week. Below we dive into a few notable players.

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Fantasy Football Outlook

Saquon Barkley is still a respected brand name in fantasy football, and no doubt his fantasy managers will be pleased if he returns from a high-ankle sprain to face the Dolphins this week. It’s a seemingly enticing matchup. Miami ranks 24th in DVOA against the run and has yielded the 14th-most fantasy points to RBs. But Barkley might not be 100% healthy yet, and the Giants’ offensive line has been a disaster this season. You’re probably starting Saquon if you’re rostering him, but I do not have lofty expectations for him in his first game back.

It was surprising to see Zack Moss get so much more work than Jonathan Taylor last week. Eventually, the Indy backfield will be Taylor’s. Colts head coach Shane Steichen has already vowed to give Taylor more work this week vs. the Jaguars, whose sneaky-good run defense ranks fifth in DVOA. I think we’ll see something close to a 50/50 Taylor/Moss split this week, so I’m ranking both as low-end RB2s. The matchup is tough, but the Colts operate at a brisk offensive pace, and they’ll probably try to be balanced offensively with backup QB Gardner Minshew getting the start in place of the injured Anthony Richardson.

How quickly do you bail on a player who’s off to a slow start? On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being a quick hook and 10 being Tammy Wynette’s “Stand by Your Man” played loudly on a honky-tonk jukebox, what number would best represent you? I think I’m a 7. Let’s use Rhamondre Stevenson as a test case. Stevenson was excellent last year, finishing RB11 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring with 1,461 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. This year he’s RB26, averaging just 55 scrimmage yards per game with one touchdown. Yes, the Patriots’ offense has been a mess, but I think the running-game woes are fixable. PFF has New England graded 21st in run blocking, which is below average but not awful. The 25-year-old Stevenson most likely didn’t go from good to bad in a span of nine months. It will anger some frustrated Stevenson investors that I’m still ranking him as a top-20 RB this week, but I’m not afraid to use Rhamondre against a mediocre Raiders run defense.

With De’Von Achane on IR, there’s room for a second Miami running back to provide helpful fantasy value while operating in the NFL’s most explosive offense. The most likely candidate is Jeff Wilson, who had bursts of fantasy relevance last season after the Dolphins acquired him in a midseason trade with the 49ers. Wilson played for Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel when McDaniel was San Francisco running-game coordinator, and Wilson has run-catch versatility. The question is how much work he gets in his first game back. Even if his touch count is limited, Wilson could still produce useful numbers vs. a Carolina defense that has given up more fantasy points to RBs than any team other than the Broncos. Two wild cards in the Miami RB mix: Salvon Ahmed, who, like Wilson, is returning from injury, and undrafted rookie free agent Chris Brooks, who looked good in the preseason and had a long run in garbage time against the Broncos a few weeks ago. Neither Ahmed nor Brooks is a safe play this week, but their usage bears watching.

-Pat Fitzmaurice

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