Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Saquon Barkley: The Giants wasted no time leaning on Barkley. In his first game back, he played 78% of the snaps with 28 touches and 98 total yards. In his first game back, his 8.3% explosive run rate and 3.50 yards after contact per attempt were strong marks, but his 13% missed tackles forced per attempt was concerning. Barkley has averaged 22 touches and 84.3 total yards this season. Washington has been an improving run defense. They have allowed the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt. They have also held gap runners (Barkley 52.8% gap) to the 14th-lowest gap scheme yards per carry. Week 7 Positional Value: Volume-based RB1
Chris Godwin: Godwin has been struggling this season with only one game with more than 80 receiving yards, but this is the week he could post only his second 100-yard receiving game of the year. Godwin has a 22.1% target share, a 26.3% air-yard share, 2.27 YPRR, and a 29.4% air-yard share. He will lead the way against the Falcon’s man coverage (32.8%, sixth-highest). Against man, Godwin’s target share has jumped to 25% while his YPRR has sky-rocketed to 3.64, and his first-read share has increased to 33.3%. If Terrell is all over Evans this week, Godwin will tangle with Jeff Okudah (33.3% catch rate and 53.5 passer rating). It’s a tough matchup, but if Godwin can keep up his exemplary play against man, he can steal the show from Evans this week. Week 7 Positional Value: WR2/3
Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is the WR10 in Fantasy ranking 11th in target share (27.4%), ninth-best in TPRR (30%), and 11th in YPRR. St. Brown is eighth in fantasy points per route run. After four 100 yard receiving days last year, he already has three games on his resume this season. He has three touchdowns and six red zone targets in his five games played. St. Brown will run about 53% of his routes against Arthur Maulet (50% catch rate and 78.1 passer rating). Pump the brakes on expectations for St. Brown this week against a secondary that’s allowed the third-lowest PPR points per target to slot wide receivers. Week 7 Positional Value: WR1
Rhamondre Stevenson: My concern for Stevenson has reached critical mass. We now enter Week 7 with Stevenson averaging 15.8 touches per game with only 57.5 total yards. He is the RB25 based solely upon his 11th-ranked snap share, tenth ranking in weighted opportunities, and top 16 marks in carries and targets. It has all been volume-related because nothing resembling efficiency has been present. Stevenson ranks outside the top 45 backs in yards per touch and yards created per touch. Out of 53 qualifying backs, he ranks dead last in yards after contact per attempt. If there was any matchup to offer some glimpse of vintage Stevenson, it’s the Bills. Their run defense this season has been abysmal. They have the third-worst explosive run rate, the highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-highest yards per carry allowed to gap runs (5.0). 60.3% of Stevenson’s runs have been with gap designs. Week 7 Positional Value: RB2
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