Fantasy Football Outlook: Sam LaPorta, Russell Wilson, Dalton Kincaid, Gus Edwards

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Dalton Kincaid: The tight end usage has begun to tilt in Kincaid’s favor. Over the last two weeks, he has bested Dawson Knox in target share, route run rate, and slot rate. His aDOT has remained at an abysmal 2.5, but that can change at the drop of a hat. Kincaid has become the Bills’ preferred slot option. The only thing capping his ceiling is his aDOT and still lagging snap rate (51-52% in Weeks 3-4). Kincaid is in a great spot to have a breakout game this week. Jacksonville’s worst corner remains slot corner Tre Herndon (78.9% catch rate and 145.0 passer rating). Over the last two weeks, Kincaid has led the team in slot routes. Tight ends have also ripped apart the Jaguars. They have allowed the third-most receiving yards, the sixth-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Jacksonville has given up the most fantasy points in the NFL to slot tight ends. Week 5 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside this week

Sam LaPorta: Sammy Ballgame is the truth. LaPorta is shaping up as THE late round-tight end of the year. He is the TE5 in fantasy that’s crushing rookie tight end narrative with each passing week. Among 37 qualifying tight ends, he is fourth in target share, second in YPRR, 12th in YAC per reception and 14th in first-read share. LaPorta ranks third in fantasy points per route run behind only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. Carolina is another advantageous matchup. They have faced the ninth-fewest tight end targets but are allowing the 11th-highest yards per reception to the position. Week 5 Positional Value: Top-five TE

Gus Edwards: Last week, Edwards took over as the team’s lead back with 69% of the snaps, 17 touches, and 49 total yards. Edwards has been pretty good with volume this season. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 13th in explosive run rate, 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Pittsburgh can be run on this season. The wheels on the bus will go round and round up and down the field this week. Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-highest missed tackles allowed rate and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt. The Steelers have given up the 11th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Edwards 63.6% gap). Week 5 Positional Value: RB3 with RB2 upside

Russell Wilson: The defensive struggles in Denver are overshadowing a wonderful bounce-back season Wilson is engineering. He is seventh in passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and tenth-best in adjusted completion rate. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson is ninth-best in fantasy points per dropback. New York will serve as a good litmus test for where Wilson truly is and if this resurgence is for real. The Jets have allowed the tenth-lowest yards per attempt, the ninth-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Look for the Jets to generate pressure this week. They are ninth-best in pressure rate. Wilson has handled pressure extremely well this season. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, first in passer rating, and second in fantasy points per dropback against pressure. Week 5 Positional Value: Borderline QB1