Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Bears vs. Commanders. Here is my primer for Thursday Night Football. Below we dive into a few notable players taking the field in Bears vs. Commanders.
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Waiver Wire Picks
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Want to read about only your players? Sync your team (free) to get My Primer
Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
Sam Howell: The Sam Howell experience has been a rollercoaster, and that’s reflected in his metrics. Howell has the 13th-highest big-time throw rate and ranks eighth in adjusted completion rate while also having the 12th-lowest passing grade and the tenth-highest time to throw. Howell has struggled against zone coverage, which could loom large this week. The Bears have deployed their corners in zone on 62-73% of their snaps. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks against zone coverage, Howell ranks 20th in yards per attempt, 30th in fantasy points per dropback, and he has a 1:5 passing touchdown to interception ratio. I don’t want to underrate just how bad the Chicago secondary has been, though. The Bears have allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, second-most passing touchdowns, and the fifth-highest adjusted completion rate. Howell is a dicey play this week, but the upside is there. Week 4 Positional Value: QB2 with upside
Brian Robinson: Robinson has been Washington’s lead back with at least 52% of the snaps played in three of four games. He has averaged 16.6 touches and 79.1 total yards. Robinson’s pass-game involvement has been minimal, with a 24.9% route run per team dropback rate and a 5.0% target share. Among 57 qualifying running backs, Robinson ranks 14th in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. I won’t lie. I didn’t think Robinson had that type of juice. The Chicago run defense is not a pushover like their secondary. The Bears have held rushers to the 12th-lowest explosive run rate while bolstering the eighth-highest stuff rate. They have also zone runs to the 13th-lowest yards per carry (Robinson 65.6% zone per Fantasy Points Data). Week 4 Positional Value: RB2/3
D.J. Moore: Moore has seen a 19.5% target share and a 42% air yard share while producing 2.17 yards per route run (YPRR). He has a 33.8% first-read share while leading the team in deep targets (third-most among wide receivers). Moore also leads the team with a 34% first-read share against zone coverage. Moore will run about 52% of routes against Emmanuel Forbes (72% catch rate and 124.2 passer rating). This is another ceiling spot for Moore this year. Week 4 Positional Value: WR2
Logan Thomas: Thomas returned from a concussion to play 79% of Washington’s offensive snaps while posting a 74% route run per team dropback rate. Thomas only had a 7.3% target share, but he drew a 22.6% target share and a 24.5% air yard share in Week 1. Among 33 qualifying tight ends, Thomas ranks 19th in receiving grade and YPRR. Chicago has allowed the ninth-most receptions and the 14th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Thomas could flirt with TE1 production this week. Week 4 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside
-Derek Brown
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*