Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 5 wrapped and a lot to recap from ALL the action! Hopefully, you have liked the new version of the 2023 usage report. While slightly altered from previous installments, I think it packs a punch that is exactly what fantasy managers want and NEED as they make transactions heading into the next week.
Again, we live in the year 2023, where bite-size and easy-to-digest content is the way, the masses consume content. My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data, so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
As always, I’ll be citing data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players who are coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about. Note that If I omit a certain player(s), it’s likely because their role/usage did not change from the week prior. Want to save valuable space for players whose stock is rising/falling, as this is where we can take advantage as savvy fantasy gamers.
Here is my entire Week 6 fantasy football forecast. Below we dive into a few notable players.
Fantasy Football Forecast
Green Bay Packers
Buy Romeo Doubs, Add Luke Musgrave, Drop Jayden Reed
Aaron Jones missed another game which put A.J. Dillon back into the starting role. He was more effective rushing the ball 20 times for 76 yards and 1 rushing TD versus an exploitable run defense. He played 64% of the snaps. Patrick Taylor inherited the receiving role with 5 targets (2 for 5) while leading the backfield in routes run. I’d expect similar usage between Dillon and Aaron Jones, upon the veteran’s eventual return from his hamstring injury.
As for the receivers it was more of a flat target distribution as we have come to know with Jordan Love under center. Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave tied for the team lead with 7 targets a piece (24% Target share). Musgrave caught 6 for 34 yards, while Watson flashed his big-play upside with a 77-yard grab on one of his 3 catches (177 air yards, 73% air-yard share). Love was constantly missing Watson on downfield attempts.
Watson played a full-time role, but still saw fewer routes run than Romeo Doubs. However, it did not matter as Doubs caught just one of his four targets. Woof.
Doubs was targeted in the end zone, but it came up just short of a score from the 4-yard line.
Green Bay’s offense has sputtered out in recent weeks, but the schedule calls for guys to increase their production in a hurry. Denver is the gift that keeps giving as is the Vikings and Rams’ defenses. And because GB is going on a bye week, they can be acquired for dirt cheap prices – or even scooped potentially off the waiver wire.
Although Jayden Reed‘s lack of involvement with the return of Watson – 50% snap share, 2 targets – suggests he can probably be dropped over the bye week.
Las Vegas Raiders
Buy Davante Adams
The Davante Adams revenge game did not go as scheduled for fantasy managers. Adams was targeted just four times, catching all four passes for 45 scoreless yards.
Meanwhile, it was the Jakobi Meyers show, as the ex-Patriot caught 7 of 10 targets for 75 yards and 1 TD.
In three games with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, Meyers has averaged 10.5 targets, 7.6 receptions, 80.3 receiving yards, and 1 TD per game.
The only other difference this week was the LV tight ends were slightly more involved from the get-go. The MNF broadcast was vocal that the team wanted to get their TEs more involved, but it resulted in just four catches for 50 yards on 5 targets between rookie Michael Mayer and veteran Austin Hooper.
It’s more annoying for Adams/Meyers that targets are being taken away from them, as the usage 50/50 split between Mayer/Hooper makes neither playable.
LV faces a reeling Patriots defense in Week 6, followed by the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and New York Giants. Find a way to get Davante Adams on your team after his worst week of the season. Still leads the NFL in Target share (33%) while ranking fourth in weighed opportunity and 7th in air yards share (43%).
Bye Week Teams:
Los Angeles Chargers
Drop Gerald Everett, Hold Quentin Johnston, Sell Keenan Allen
Justin Herbert threw for 167 yards and a touchdown in Week 4, including an explosive 51-yard pass to Josh Palmer to seal the deal in the fourth quarter. That was despite Herbert dealing with a hand injury. Baller.
In the rushing department, Herbert showcased his tactical dual-threat ability with 2 rushing touchdowns on 12 carries for 27 yards.
Keenan Allen was Herbert’s top target in Week 4, hauling in 3 receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown. Although Palmer led the team with 8 targets, finishing with 3 for 77 yards. Again, the final stat line is majorly boosted by the last-minute catch, so Palmer busted for essentially 59 minutes. Keep that in mind…
Palmer led the WRs in snaps (86%) and tied with Allen in routes run (97%). If someone is sour on Allen after a low game, he would be a target off a bye week, especially given the injury surrounding Herbert’s finger injury on his non-throwing hand. However, if you want to sell the 31-year-old based on some recent injury history, I think it might be worth it to see what you can get in return.
Rookie Quentin Johnston played more (71% route participation) as was expected with Mike Williams out. Add him if he was dropped during the bye week.
The overall lack of passing was not expected, as Joshua Kelley rushed 17 times for 65 yards. Isaiah Spiller rushed 5 for 12 yards. The Chargers are returning from bye, so we can just Austin Ekeler back in the fold.
DAL, KC and CHI Weeks 6-8.
Cleveland Browns
Buy Amari Cooper, Sell Jerome Ford, Drop David Njoku
On the Browns’ side, the offense was led by quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson with Deshaun Watson out in Week 4. DTR completed just 19 out of 36 passes for 121 yards, zero TDs.
David Njoku was his primary target, securing 6 receptions for 46 yards (7 targets, 21% Target share). Considering it was a new QB – not any usage change – that influenced Njoku’s best game to date, it best not to read too much into it. Leave him on waivers or drop him.
No Watson killed the fantasy value of Amari Cooper (1 catch, 6 targets) and Elijah Moore (2 for 20, 4 targets). Buy Cooper after the down game with Watson coming back healthy.
On the year, Cooper ranks 7th in air yards share.
Pierre Strong was the standout performer with 5 carries for 49 yards, averaging an impressive 9.8 yards per carry. Although it came all in garbage time for a second straight game. Jerome Ford started but was underwhelming with 9 for 26, but he caught 5 passes on 6 targets. Kareem Hunt also tallied 5 carries but was not targeted.
The 49ers are up next in Week 6. Not great for Ford. Sell high. Ranks second to last in the NFL in rushing success rate (34%) and total rushing EPA this season. So, although I’ll acknowledge his snaps and receiving usage is encouraging the schedule and Hunt’s potential to take a larger chunk concerns me long term. Note that in the first half of Week 4, it was just 6 to 4 carries between Ford and Hunt.
-Andrew Erickson
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