let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 4, to prepare for success in Week 5. The Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 5 slate.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 4’s action…
Along with snap counts…
Note the bye weeks for Week 5:
- Cleveland Browns
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
And stay ahead of the game for Week 6 bye weeks:
- Green Bay Packers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Football Forecast
Houston Texans
Buy Tank Dell, Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins, Avoid Dalton Schultz
CJ Stroud, with ANOTHER impressive outing. Stroud completed 16 out of 30 passes for an impressive 306 yards and two touchdowns. His primary target was Nico Collins, who had a standout performance with 7 receptions for 168 yards and two touchdowns (9 targets, 33% target share).
After it was Tank Dell WR1 szn all week, Collins reclaimed the throne.
Through four weeks, Collins ranks third in receiving EPA and 1st in yards after the catch.
All in all, you should WANT and LIKE both guys. Stroud is good enough to support multiple fantasy weapons. Dell’s probably a nice buy low after a dud (one catch for 16 yards, 3 targets). The rookie also ran the most routes (tied with Robert Woods, who also drew 6 targets) as he has done the past three weeks.
With Collins likely catching tight coverage from A.J. Terrell and Marshon Lattimore over the next two weeks – they also rank second in fewest yards after the catch allowed – we could easily see things shift back toward Dell. Just $4,800 on DraftKings this week.
Dalton Schultz also contributed with 3 receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown. Do not fall for this. 40% route participation.
In the rushing department, Dameon Pierce led the way with 24 carries for 81 yards, showcasing his ability to grind out tough yardage. 2 targets and one catch for 27 yards. Played a season-high 59% of the snaps. Although the route participation stayed the same (36%).
Devin Singletary added 7 carries for 25 yards and threw a TD to Schultz. Five carries came in the 4th quarter. As this team gets healthier, specifically the OL, this offense can get even better. That makes all offensive pieces “buys” on this roster.
Denver Broncos
Add Jaleel McLaughlin, Buy Jerry Jeudy, Sell Courtland Sutton, Samaje Perine
Russell Wilson completed 21 of his 28 pass attempts for 223 yards and three touchdown passes, earning a passer rating of 133.5.
On the Broncos’ side, Javonte Williams left with a hip injury. Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine split carries, but Williams was the superior rusher. 7 for 72 with a 31-yard-long rush. He also caught 3 of 3 targets for 32 yards and 1 TD. McLaughlin is the most logical candidate to take on Williams’ role should he miss any more time. Add him off waivers. He only played 33% of the snaps (16) but touched the ball on 63% of his snaps played. Perine played 46% of the snaps – rushing 6 for 12 yards – along with 2 targets and 23 yards.
Wilson spread the love as no receiver saw more than 5 targets (19% target share). Jerry Jeudy led with 52 yards on 3 catches. Seems to be trending in the right direction from a health standpoint. Saw 53% of the team’s air yards.
Sutton scored on 1 of his 3 catches. Marvin Mims (2 for 47). Can’t wait to rewatch his 10 routes (or so I think). Correction 12 routes upon the data being finalized on Monday. Doesn’t make it hurt less. But I am not dropping him because he’s too good.
Note that Mims’ usage is highly dependent on whether the Broncos can run the ball effectively per Football Guys’ and Denver insider Cecil Lammey. The Jets rank fifth in rushing yards allowed per game (148).
Overall this might be a prime sell-high opportunity for any of these Broncos players. Next two weeks…Jets and Chiefs. Two tougher defenses that could thwart a surprisingly effective offense through one month. Sutton has three TDs in four games. Not sustainable in tougher matchups.
I think Perine might be a smart sell-high to those who think he will benefit from the Williams injury the most when McLaughlin seems to be one of Sean Payton’s guys. Note that the DraftKings’ salaries agree with me having McLaughlin listed at a higher price than Perine.
Minnesota Vikings
Sell Alexander Mattison, Buy Jordan Addison, Cam Akers
Alexander Mattison was the workhorse in the Vikings’ backfield, amassing 95 rushing yards on 17 carries. Cam Akers‘ debut did little to impact him on the surface, as the former Ram carried the ball just 5 times…but 40 yards. 8 yards per carry. Oh. That’s new. And it was TRUE 8 yards per carry. Rushes of 6, 8, 9, 7 and 10.
And Akers – who has been a total zero in the passing game throughout his career – sees two targets to Mattison’s one in his first game as a Viking. Saw 7 routes to Mattison’s 10.
Sell high. Akers’ 7 touches and 29% snap share were already higher than any snap rate or workload Ty Chandler had through three games. Mattison’s 69% snap share was a season-low.
Kirk Cousins had an efficient game, completing 12 of his 19 pass attempts for 139 yards and two touchdown passes. His primary target was the explosive Justin Jefferson, who recorded 6 receptions for 85 yards and an impressive two touchdowns on 9 targets.
Nobody else did much in the passing game as Kirk only threw 19 times. Buy low on guys like Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, etc.
Addison still ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks, despite dropping the goose egg on 1 target. Buy low.
The Chiefs and the Bears are up next. I’m sure he will see plenty of usage.
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