Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 5 wrapped and a lot to recap from ALL the action! Hopefully, you have liked the new version of the 2023 usage report. While slightly altered from previous installments, I think it packs a punch that is exactly what fantasy managers want and NEED as they make transactions heading into the next week.

Again, we live in the year 2023, where bite-size and easy-to-digest content is the way, the masses consume content. My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data, so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.

• Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

As always, I’ll be citing data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players who are coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about. Note that If I omit a certain player(s), it’s likely because their role/usage did not change from the week prior. Want to save valuable space for players whose stock is rising/falling, as this is where we can take advantage as savvy fantasy gamers.

Here is my entire Week 6 fantasy football forecast. Below we dive into a few notable players.

Fantasy Football Forecast

Seattle Seahawks

Hold Kenneth Walker, Add Zach Charbonnet, Sell Tyler Lockett, Buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Seattle’s offense wasn’t asked to do too much given the lack of offense generated by the Giants back in Week 4. Geno Smith left briefly with a leg injury but returned in the second half. Kenneth Walker maintained his high-end usage, playing 71% of the snaps to go along with 79 rushing yards and 1 TD. KW3 was bottled up in the first half – 9 for 19 – but ripped off two 15-plus yard rushes in the second half.

The one bad thing about his usage – zero targets despite running a route on 50% of the dropbacks. Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet was targeted on three of his 5 routes run. The rookie played 24% of the snaps. He’s starting to eat more into Walker’s receiving role, but it’s not impacting the starter’s production. Walker is still getting all the TD equity. He remains a hold with Cincy and Arizona coming up.

Suggested selling Tyler Lockett last week and that looks like a sharp move.

One would figure we get an expanded role for Jaxon Smith-Njigba post the bye week. Because through four weeks, Lockett has done pretty much nothing outside of two TDs in Week 2. JSN’s routes increased in Week 4 (75% route participation) versus Weeks 1-3 (63%). He also tied Lockett for the team-lead Iin targets (6).

Look for JSN to hit waivers after a slow start to his rookie year with Seattle coming off a bye. Take advantage and stash him. Could easily be a league-winner down the stretch.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buy Chris Godwin, Sell Mike Evans, Hold Rachaad White, Add Cade Otton

The Buccaneers’ offensive attack primarily revolved around quarterback Baker Mayfield, who was efficient with 25 completions out of 32 attempts for 246 yards and three touchdowns in Week 4. Mayfield spread the ball effectively among his targets, with Chris Godwin being his favorite, securing 8 receptions for 114 yards. Deven Thompkins and Mike Evans also contributed significantly with 4 catches for 45 yards and 3 catches for 40 yards, respectively. Evans left early with a hamstring injury. Thompkins did not play the most snaps after the Evans injury. Trey Palmer (75% snap share) ran a route on nearly 80% of the dropbacks. Thompkins was around 61%.

Godwin blew up with Evans out, and Mayfield has shown he can support at least one fantasy WR every single week. Buy Godwin now, with the TD regression calling his name. Only receiver this year with 7-plus red-zone targets and zero TDs.

Cade Otton (100% snap share) added another touchdown reception to his name in Week 4. 3 for 13 on 4 targets. The Lions are a solid matchup in Week 6.

On the ground, the Buccaneers deployed a committee of running backs more than we have seen in previous weeks. Rachaad White led the rushing attack with 15 carries for 56 yards (70% snap share), while Ke’Shawn Vaughn saw some action going 9 for 16 (1 target). 5 carries in the 4th quarter. White still was the preferred pass-catcher with 3 catches for 22 yards (3 targets), while running a route on 79% of dropbacks.

White remains a hold due to his consistent workload and the fact that nobody else behind him on the depth chart is any good. He also just got really unlucky in terms of TDs in Week 4, going 0-for-6 on his red-zone attempts. A total of seven red-zone touches altogether.

The Lions’ newly found tough run defense (not great for White) in Week 6 and Falcons up next in Week 7.

Note that the bye week gives Evans a better chance of returning, but don’t be overly optimistic. Older player + hamstring injury usually doesn’t end well.

-Andrew Erickson

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