Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers vs. Bills. Here’s the full Thursday Night Football Primer. Below are a few notable players.
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Thursday Night Football Outlook
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has been a serviceable QB2 this season. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 24th in yards per attempt, 16th in passer rating, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. We could see Mayfield post a surprisingly good stat line this week against a downgraded Bills’ pass defense. Since losing Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano, the Bills have operated in zone coverage on 74% of their snaps while allowing the fifth-highest passer rating and adjusted completion rate while ranking 14th in yards per attempt. Mayfield can take advantage of this secondary. Mayfield’s biggest concern is not the backend of Buffalo but their pass rush, which ranks second in pressure rate. Mayfield has been quite good against pressure this season, though ranking seventh in pressured passing grade, fourth in pressured yards per attempt, and second in passer rating. Mayfield could sneak into the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks this week. Week 8 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside
Running Backs
Rachaad White: White has been a consistent (uninspiring) volume play this season with at least 70% of the snaps weekly while averaging 17.5 touches and 71.5 total yards. White still has zero explosive runs this season. That’s not good, Bob. Not at all. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 48th in yards after contact per attempt. The good thing for White is Buffalo’s run defense has been the weakest point of their defense all season. The Bills have given up the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the highest yards after contact per attempt, and the second-highest yards per carry to zone runs (White 53% zone). Week 8 Positional Value: RB2
James Cook: After a few quiet games, Cook had a noice Week 7 with 16 touches and 102 total yards (one touchdown). His role didn’t change a ton, as he played 52% of the snaps. He has averaged 15 touches and 86.5 total yards this season. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is 27th in explosive run rate, 34th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Cook faces a resurgent Tampa Bay run defense that has kept backs in check. They have surrendered the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Cook 59.1% gap). Cook needs another touchdown to likely pay off this week. Week 8 Positional Value: low-end RB2/RB3
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans: Evans continues to crush. I faded him in draft season and now regret doing so immensely. Among 104 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 23rd in target share (22.9%), 16th in air-yard share (37.8%), and tenth in yards per route run (2.80). He is also 24th in first-read share (28.4%). Evans is second on the Bucs in red zone targets. He should lead the passing attack against the Bills zone coverage. Against zone, his target share has increased to 23.9% as his air-yard share has bumped to 41%, and his yards per route run (YPRR) balloons to an insane 3.22. Evans will run about 72% of his routes against Christian Benford (72.7% catch rate and 100.9 passer rating) and Dane Jackson (80% catch rate and 118.9 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: Borderline WR1
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
