Fantasy Football Outlook: Michael Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, Jared Goff, Calvin Ridley

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Calvin Ridley: Ridley’s Week 1 performance feels like ages ago. In that game, he had a 34.4% target, a 48.6% air yard share, and a 36.0% first-read share. Since Week 2, Ridley has faded into the background. He ranks fourth on the team with a 14.0% target share, third with a 30.5% air yard share, and third with a 17.4% first-read share. Why the massive shift in usage? I have no clue. Ridley looked like a wide receiver still in his prime in Week 1. It’s not just that Ridley hasn’t been producing, but the team has drastically altered first-read shares. Ridley has become a shaky weekly start quickly. He will run about 83% of his routes against Dane Jackson (2022: 58.2% catch rate and 81.9 passer rating) and Christian Benford (58.3% catch rate and 94.4 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: dicey WR2/3

Jared Goff: Goff continues to play exceptional football. He’s the QB17 in fantasy points per game only because of Detroit’s insistence on running the ball inside the 20. I’m not saying that goes away. If Detroit evened out to a 50/50 pass/run split inside the 20, Goff would be a top-12 fantasy quarterback. He is fourth in yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate while ranking 12th in highly accurate throw rate and 13th in fantasy points per dropback. Goff faces a stingy Carolina secondary this week. They have given up the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate and sixth-lowest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Goff does have an avenue to challenge them deep this week, which could lead to a ceiling outcome. Carolina has allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate to deep balls. Goff has been an ELITE deep ball passer this season. Yes, I know. I am as surprised as you are, but it’s true. He is fifth in deep passing grade, seventh in deep passing yards, and second in deep adjusted completion rate. Week 5 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Jaylen Waddle: This looks like another quiet week for Waddle against New York’s man coverage heavy defensive design. Against man coverage this season, Waddle has a 13.8% target share, an 18.6% air-yard share, and 2.79 YPRR. It’s not that he can’t beat man coverage, as we can see from his impressive YPRR, but the team leans on Hill in these matchups. Waddle is also third on the team in first-read share against man with only a 14.3% mark. Waddle will run about 73% of his routes against Jackson and Banks. Week 5 Positional Value: low-end WR2

Michael Wilson: In the three games, Wilson has seen starter-level snaps (at least a 67% snap share); he has handled a 14.1% target share and a 26.7% air yard share with 2.32 YPRR. Wilson is the WR33 in fantasy points per game with four deep targets and two looks inside the red zone. He will run about 68% of his routes against Awuzie and Turner. Week 5 Positional Value: WR5