Fantasy Football Outlook: Michael Pittman, Puka Nacua, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has posted top-12 fantasy weeks over the last two games (QB11, QB10). His efficiency metrics have screamed that he should have been posting top-12 numbers all season and they are still in that low-end QB1 area code. Lawrence is ninth in passing grade, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, and tenth in adjusted completion rate. With that said, pump the brakes on Lawrence this week. The Steelers have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt this season but they have also contained passers with the fifth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the 11th-lowest passer rating permitted. Pittsburgh has also utilized man coverage at the fifth-highest rate this season (37.5%). Against man, Lawrence ranks 18th in yards per attempt and 16th in fantasy points per dropback. He could finish as a borderline QB1 this week or a high-end QB2. Week 8 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Mac Jones: Jones is coming off arguably his best game of the season. Last week he was eighth in passing grade, seventh in yards per attempt, and fifth in adjusted completion rate as he finished as the QB8 for the week. Jones could stack back-to-back QB1 outings this week against Miami. The Dolphins have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game, seventh-highest yards per attempt, and the sixth-highest passer rating to quarterbacks. Jones remains a risky bet though as the Dolphins rank seventh in pressure rate and Jones has been known to implode under pressure. He has the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate this season. Against pressure he has the eighth-lowest passing grade and the 11th-lowest yards per attempt. Week 8 Positional Value: QB2

Puka Nacua: Since Kupp’s return, Nacua has led the team with a 33.3% target share and ranks second in air yard share (37.7%), YPRR (2.70), and first-read share (35.9%). In the same span, against man coverage, Nacua is tied with Kupp for the team lead with a 34.4% target share and 41.7% first-read share. He leads the team in that stretch with 4.46 YPRR against man. Nacua leads the team during these three games with two end zone targets against man coverage. He ranks second on the team in deep targets since Kupp’s return with four. Nacua will run about 60% of his routes on the perimeter against Stephon Gilmore (46.7% catch rate and 71.1 passer rating) and DaRon Bland (48.1% catch rate and 22.7 passer rating). Since losing Trevon Diggs, Dallas has surrendered the fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and only one receiving touchdown. Week 8 Positional Value: WR1/2

Michael Pittman: The process was right last week with Pittman. He secured only two of his five targets against the Browns’ man-coverage-heavy secondary. The problem was he took one of those targets to the house for 75 yards. The Saints have the seventh-highest rate of man coverage (31.8%). Against man coverage, Pittman’s numbers drop across the board, and last week’s long touchdown is helping prop up his YPRR. Down’s has been the team’s go-to against man coverage, and I don’t see that changing this week, especially when factoring in corner matchups. Pittman will run about 71% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (54.3% catch rate and 65.4 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (57.1% catch rate and 66.0 passer rating). The Saints have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to opposing perimeter wide receivers. Keep your Pittman hopes in check this week. Week 8 Positional Value: WR3/4