let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 4, to prepare for success in Week 5. The Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.

Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 5 slate.

For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 4’s action…

My NFL Week 3 Fantasy Football…

Rapid Reactions?

And Major Takeaways?

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023

Along with snap counts…

Week 4 Fantasy Football Snap Counts

To prepare your fantasy team for Week 5…

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023

Note the bye weeks for Week 5:

• Cleveland Browns
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Seattle Seahawks
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

And stay ahead of the game for Week 6 bye weeks:

• Green Bay Packers
• Pittsburgh Steelers

Fantasy Football Forecast

Indianapolis Colts

Buy Michael Pittman Jr., Buy/Hold Zack Moss, Josh Downs

Rookie QB Anthony Richardson displayed a stellar performance, completing 11 of 25 pass attempts for 200 yards and two touchdown passes. Rushed for 56 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. Zero hesitation to run coming back from the concussion.

Tight end Andrew Ogletree was Richardson’s top target, receiving 4 targets and making 3 receptions for 48 yards and a touchdown. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr., combined for three catches. Richardson only completed 11 passes.

Pittman still led the team in targets (21% target share), so I’d be buying low. I fully expect the Colts to go super pass-heavy versus the Titans’ pass-funnel defense in Week 5. They have allowed the fifth-highest completion percentage this season.

I also wouldn’t drop Josh Downs. Again, he still posted an 87% route participation, slightly higher than Week 3. Pierce is not commanding any type of consistent targets, confirming Downs as the No. 2 in the offense. Cheap in DFS as well at just $3,700.

In the rushing game, Zack Moss led the way with 70 rushing yards on 18 carries. Expect him to remain RB1 until JT returns. 83% snap share to Trey Sermon‘s 16% in Week 4. Just be wary that Moss doesn’t have much of a receiving ceiling even as every snap player. Although the TD upside is still there as he earned two red-zone carries in Week 4.

All in all, I’ll do what I recommended last week with Moss. If Jonathan Taylor still gets traded…that would set up Moss to be a workhorse for the long haul. The worst-case scenario is he gives you usable weeks before JT reclaims RB1 duties for the Colts. Trade a bench WR for Moss.

Washington Commanders

Buy Brian Robinson, Add Logan Thomas

Sam Howell displayed his passing skills, completing 29 of 41 pass attempts for 290 yards and one touchdown. He efficiently distributed the ball to various targets.

Brian Robinson was the key contributor in the rushing game, gaining 45 yards on 14 carries and finding the end zone once. He should have scored twice but fumbled into the end zone (recovered by Terry McLaurin). Totaled four red-zone targets. Played 55% of the snaps and ran just one fewer route than Gibson. That’s huge.

Antonio Gibson took a backseat in the receiving game to BRob, who saw 2 targets for Gibby’s one. A positive development for Robinson, who the team just seems to love. If we get him in a full three-down role, he will be a fringe fantasy RB1. Buy high. Could be in for a monster game versus Chicago. He’s currently tied for 3^rd in the NFL in rushing yards (pending MNF).

In the passing game, Terry McLaurin was Howell’s primary target, receiving 10 targets and making 8 receptions for 86 yards (26% target share).

Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson also played significant roles in the passing attack, with Samuel making 7 receptions (8 targets) and Dotson adding 4 receptions and a touchdown (9 targets, 23% target share). Dotson saw a whopping four red-zone targets catching two including the TD.

Through four weeks – McLaurin/Dotson are tied with a 19% team target share. For that reason, I view TMC as a sell high. Again, like DJ Moore, McLaurin will finish the year as a fantasy WR2. He does every year. So, if you can get a bit more after a strong game, I’d cash out.

Dotson is tricky because his role is maxed out and I don’t envision his targets increasing too drastically. Had it not been for the TD score, he’d hardly be on the radar aside from the 9 targets. He has just been super inefficient ranking 7^th-worst in yards per route this season. Think regression will work in his favor, but probably not enough to move the needle outside being just a bye-week fill-in.

Logan Thomas – back from the concussion – went just 3 for 3 for 41 yards. Ran a full route tree. 78%. No restrictions. Can be a tight end fill-in for teams hurting. The Bears have allowed the 3rd-most catches to TEs this season.

Bears on TNF this week, then the Falcons for Washington.

Philadelphia Eagles

Buy DeVonta Smith, Hold Dallas Goedert, Hold/Sell D’Andre Swift

Jalen Hurts had an impressive performance, completing 25 of 37 pass attempts for 319 yards and two touchdown passes.

A.J. Brown was the star of the Eagles’ receiving corps, receiving 13 targets and making 9 receptions for 175 yards and two touchdowns. Over 200 air yards. AJB WR1 SZN. WITH PINK CLEATS. Through a month he owns a 35% target share (2^nd overall) and 46% air yards share (5^th overall). 3^rd overall in weighted opportunity. AJB WR1 szn has arrived as the Eagles’ defense has regressed from last season.

DeVonta Smith was another reliable target for Hurts, making 7 receptions for 78 yards (9 targets). Combined for a 56% target share.

Through four games Smith/Brown have combined for 59% target share. With the shine on AJB, scoop up Smith on a discount.

Dallas Goedert is at just 17%. Not great for a full-time player. But his usage is unmatched from a routes run rate (95%). Keep rolling him out there.

In the running game, D’Andre Swift led the way with 56 rushing yards and a touchdown (two red-zone carries) showcasing his versatility as both a runner and receiver with four targets and four catches in a game where Philly didn’t have the luxury of just sitting on the running game late. Kenneth Gainwell had two targets and four carries for 14 yards. Swift 3x’d Gainwell’s touches in Week 4. Gainwell didn’t record a touch till the end of the second quarter. The first carry came in the 3^rd quarter.

Eagles

D Goedert (TE) | 71 | 100%
D Smith (WR) | 70 | 99%
A Brown (WR) | 68 | 96%
O Zaccheaus (WR)| 61 | 86%
D Swift (RB) | 45 | 63%
K Gainwell (RB) | 27 | 38%

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023

Swift’s the No. 1 in the backfield, and I think fantasy managers will gladly take that for top-15 production. Although the duo split routes, Swift’s four targets are encouraging. The way he is constantly being used in different ways by the offense bodes well for his long-term outlook. Still think he’s a sell-high rather than a buy-high, just based on the injury track record and the haul you can get in return. But fine holding because he’s already returning much more than his draft-day price.

New England Patriots

Buy Rhamondre Stevenson, Hold Hunter Henry

Ezekiel Elliott is going to see “starter snaps”. 40% snap share. Rhamondre Stevenson starts the game. 54% snap share.

Not like it mattered much in a total blow-out performance. But hey, at least the under cashed!

Stevenson led the way with 14 carries for 30 yards while chipping in 2 catches for 10 yards (3 targets). Stevenson’s had all the volume he can handle – 18-plus touches in all four games – and we know he can be efficient. Just hasn’t been the case so far this year. Still a buy-low target. Elliott’s so-called “starter snaps” translated into 2 catches and 6 carries for 16 yards. Sick.

Mac Jones threw for 150 yards on 12 completions before getting benched for Bailey Zappe. Think this was more related to the turnovers. Assume Jones starts in Week 5.

Hunter Henry was Mac Jones‘ favorite target, amassing 51 yards on 4 receptions (5 targets), while Demario Douglas had a significant impact with 45 receiving yards. Henry ran a route on 79% of dropbacks.

Henry and Stevenson are the only options for fantasy football. Nobody else.

They face the Saints and Raiders over the next two weeks. Hurts even more that the Patriots’ defense lost CB Christian Gonzalez with an injury in this game. Matt Judon is also slated to miss time. A banged-up defense should create more passing attempts and should lead to more targets for both Stevenson/Henry.

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