Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Najee Harris: Harris has been nearly unstartable this season. He is the RB42 in fantasy with only one game with a weekly finish higher than RB36. The thing is, Harris has played well if you put just his per-touch metrics under the microscope. Among 53 qualifying rushers, he ranks fourth in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line has not helped him at all. Among those 53 rushers, Harris has the 14th-lowest yards before contact per attempt, and he runs behind PFF’s 11th-lowest graded offensive line. The Rams offer Harris a matchup to get on track finally. Los Angeles has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt while sitting at 14th in yards per carry given up to zone runs (4.21). 65.1% of Harris’s runs have been on zone play designs. Week 7 Positional Value: RB2/3
Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco is the RB16 in fantasy. Over the last three games he has played 59-63% of the snaps averaging 20.6 touches and 106.6 total yards. His pass game role has been increased this season as he already has three games with at least three receptions and 30 receiving yards. Among 53 qualified backs, Pacheco ranks 16th in explosive run rate and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. The Chargers are not an elite run defense, but this isn’t the pushover unit of previous seasons. The Bolts have kept backs at bay with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate allowed and the 14th-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Pacheco 52.9% gap). Los Angeles also has the tenth-lowest stuff rate, so it’s not like teams can’t run on them. Week 7 Positional Value: RB1/2
Josh Palmer: In the two games since Mike Williams was lost to injury, Palmer has played very well. I have to give him his due. He’s commanded a 24.6% target share, a 39.3% air-yard share, and produced 2.08 YPRR. His 22.9% first-read share over that short span is second to only Allen. Palmer’s biggest concern is that he could see shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed has been a shutdown cover corner this season. He followed Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Justin Jefferson on 58-75% of their routes. None of them exceeded 40 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Palmer has played well, but he isn”t in the same area code as those other receivers. The concern for Sneed taking him out of this game is real. Week 7 Positional Value: Worrisome WR3
Luke Musgrave: Musgrave’s ancillary usage metrics all scream that he will be a weekly TE1 at some point this season. In the full games he has played, he has a 72.7% route run rate, a 17.6% target share, and 1.56 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 34 qualifying tight ends this season, those metrics rank 11th, 10th, and 10th. Musgrave has three red zone looks and three deep targets. Denver has been a dream matchup for tight ends, allowing the most receiving yards, the second-highest yards per reception, and the most fantasy points. Week 7 Positional Value: TE1
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