Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Bears vs. Commanders. Here is my primer for Thursday Night Football. Below we dive into a few notable players taking the field in Bears vs. Commanders.
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
Justin Fields: Fields had an immaculate game last week. He ranked third in passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and eighth in adjusted completion rate. Yes, I’m well aware, boo birds, that it was against the Denver Broncos. Everyone loves to trash on Fields and refuses to give him his flowers when he was surgical last week. The turnaround was massive, but it’s up in the air whether he can keep it up. We shall see this week. Fields had zero designed runs last week, so that has not changed. Luke Getsy still refuses to feature Fields’ rushing ability in 2023. How are Fields haters going to feel if he puts up back-to-back superb performances? The Commanders have not been a shutdown pass defense. They have allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt and 13th-highest passer rating to passers while getting gashed by deep passing. Against deep throws, Washington has the sixth-highest passer rating, most deep passing yards, and the eighth-highest deep adjusted completion rate allowed. Fields has been money this year when chucking it deep. He has the third-highest deep passing grade, the most deep passing touchdowns (tied), and the fifth-highest deep adjusted completion rate. Week 4 Positional Value: QB1 with top-five upside this week
Khalil Herbert: The Bears shelved their two-back committee last week. We’ll see if that continues, but Herbert responded with a big game. He played a season-high 78% of the snaps with 22 touches and 122 total yards. Among 57 qualifying backs, Herbert ranks 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 23rd in explosive run rate. The Washington run defense can be exploited. While they have allowed the lowest missed tackles per attempt and have the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt, they also have given up the eighth-highest explosive run rate coupled with having the eighth-lowest stuff rate. Herbert should have a solid day in Week 5. Week 4 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside
Terry McLaurin: McLaurin has an 18.6% target share and a 27.3% air yard share as the WR39 in fantasy. He leads the team’s starters with a 26.4% first read share and 1.51 YPRR (tied). McLaurin has yet to see a red zone target, which is eye-opening. Against zone coverage, McLaurin’s target share climbs to a team-leading 20.7% with 1.92 YPRR and a 27.9% first-read share. McLaurin will run about 80% of his routes against Terell Smith (41.7% catch rate and 67.0 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (76.5% catch rate and 149.8 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR3
Cole Kmet: After a monster Week 4, Kmet is now the TE5 in fantasy points per game. This is a reflection upon the sad state of the tight end position this season. Kmet is second on the team with an 18.7% target share and an 18.3% first-read share. Last week without Claypool, Kmet stepped up as the clear number two option in the passing game with a 25.0% target share and a 25% first-read share (both second on the team). Kmet leads the team in red zone targets. Washington has been a brutal matchup for tight ends, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards and the lowest fantasy points per game for tight ends. Week 4 Positional Value: Borderline TE1
-Derek Brown
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
