If it’s been a rough start to the season for you, by all means, feel free to shake your fist at the heavens and curse the fantasy gods for smiting you. But fight on, friends. None of us have been mathematically eliminated from the fantasy playoffs yet. Miracles do happen.
Fight on.
Here are my tiers and rankings for the week. Below we dive into a few notable players.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Welcome back to the circle of trust, Justin Fields. Perhaps we never should have cast Fields out of that circle. Yes, his struggles in the first few weeks of the season were real. There may be additional struggles ahead. Fields isn’t a pinpoint passer, so if he isn’t getting it done with his legs, he can produce some disappointing point totals. But when Fields is cooking as a passer and then slathers on the rushing gravy … that’s some good eatin’. Over his last two games, Fields has thrown for 617 yards and eight touchdowns. He feasted on the Denver and Washington pass defenses in those two games. Now he gets a tasty matchup against the Vikings, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. The Vikings love to blitz but only rank 21st in pressure rate, according to Pro Football Reference. Minnesota’s opponent passer rating is 110.8, third-worst in the league behind only the Broncos and, uh, the Bears themselves. Play Fields every week, even when the matchup isn’t as pristine as this one.
Speaking of quarterbacks readmitted to the circle of trust, welcome back, Joe Burrow. After a dreadful first four weeks in which he still appeared to be battling through a calf injury sustained early in training camp, Burrow turned in his best game of the season in Week 5, completing 36-of-46 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Cardinals. Burrow gets a friendly Week 6 home matchup against a Seattle defense giving up 18.2 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. The Bengals have a Week 6 bye, so there shouldn’t be any more calf-related concerns for Burrow by the time he faces the 49ers in Week 7.
A lot of people are fading Jared Goff this week because he’s playing on the road. I am not among those people. Players generally perform better in home games than in road games, but some players have extreme home/road splits. That’s been the case with Goff. Since joining the Lions in 2021, Goff has completed 68.7% of his passes and averaged 258.7 passing yards in home games. In road games, he’s completed 63.7% of his throws and averaged 235.9 passing yards. Those are pronounced but not absurd home/road splits. Touchdown passes are a different story. In 20 home games as a Lion, Goff has averaged 2.15 TD passes a game. In his 16 road games as a Lion, Goff has averaged 0.88 TD passes a game. Some people will see such a volatile split and conclude that Goff is unplayable in road games. I’m inclined to see such an extreme split as a glitch in the matrix — an anomaly, a fluke. Will Goff turn into a puddle of goo simply because he’s not playing in the friendly confines of Detroit’s Ford Field? I don’t buy it. Goff is playing well. Lions OC Ben Johnson is one of the best play callers in the game. Amon-Ra St. Brown is expected back from an abdominal injury, giving Goff a full complement of weapons. The Buccaneers are a difficult matchup but not a prohibitive one. I have Goff ranked QB12 this week and am not afraid to start him.
Rankers have been slow to give Bruck Purdy his due, and I’m guilty of that as well. I’m not ready to anoint him the next Tom Brady, but Purdy is a hand-in-glove fit for Kyle Shanahan’s system, limiting mistakes and effectively leveraging the 49ers’ impressive skill-position talent. Purdy is an efficient forklift operator, putting everything where it needs to be. I have him ranked QB15 this week. There are dual concerns with Purdy’s Week 6 setup: a tough matchup against a Browns defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA against the pass, and a concerning weather forecast that calls for rain and winds in the 15-25 mph range. Ask Browns fans about the wind-tunnel effect in their stadium. I’ve mentioned in past installments of this article that I’m not easily spooked by weather effects, but windy games in Cleveland are a notable exception.
Monday night’s Cowboys-Chargers game will tell us a great deal about Dak Prescott‘s fantasy value going forward. Dak is QB21 in fantasy scoring. He’s posted single-digit point totals in 2-of-5 games and has topped 16 fantasy points only once this season. If he has a disappointing fantasy performance against a Chargers defense that is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, in a game with a Vegas total of 50.5 points, it might be time to walk away.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
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