Fantasy Football Outlook: Joshua Palmer, Brandin Cooks, Jake Ferguson (Week 6)

Hello and welcome to the Week 6 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here are all of my takeaways ahead of Week 6. Below we dive into a few notable players.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Team Pace and Plays

At face value, the Texans vs. Saints matchup doesn’t scream excitement, but I think there’s some sneaky value in the over based on how these two teams play. First, both teams rank in the top ten in pace over expected over the past four weeks, while also recording a solid number of plays. In fact, New Orleans has run at least 61 plays in every game this season, with Houston hitting that mark in three of four games. Houston, though, has used no-huddle in neutral scripts on at least 9% of their plays in three of their last four games. The biggest hurdles to this total going over are New Orleans’ stout defense and these teams’ proclivity for running the ball. The Saints’ defense ranks third in EPA per play allowed, but I think Houston can find success through the air as New Orleans’ defense records pressure at just a 34.8% rate (14th in the league) and Houston’s offensive line continues to get healthier. If Houston abandons the run — their 30.8% rushing success rate doesn’t explain their -4% PROE — and lets rookie sensation CJ Stroud pick apart the secondary like he did against Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, then this game could be a point-fest.
- Action: bet over 42.5 total points
This week’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys is a fever dream for fantasy football players. Aside from the Kellen Moore revenge game narrative, these are two of the fastest-paced teams in the league. Neither team has a game this year in which their pace was slower than expected, and they both rank top five in neutral-script seconds per play. While Dallas had its worst offensive performance of the year on Sunday Night Football, the Chargers’ defense is a great get-right spot for the Cowboys. Los Angeles allowed its opponents to record 83 and 73 total plays in its two games before their bye, and its defense ranks in the bottom eight in every major efficiency metric. On the flip side, Dallas’ defense showed it can be exploited and the Chargers (like San Francisco) boast a top-five offense in passing EPA per play and passing success rate. The total in this game has already risen from 46.5 points last week to 50.5 points as of this writing.
- Action: start all fringe players in this game as solid flex options (Joshua Palmer, Brandin Cooks) and Jake Ferguson as a great tight-end streamer

-Sam Hoppen