let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 4, to prepare for success in Week 5. The Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 5 slate.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 4’s action…
Along with snap counts…
Note the bye weeks for Week 5:
- Cleveland Browns
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
And stay ahead of the game for Week 6 bye weeks:
- Green Bay Packers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Football Forecast
San Francisco 49ers
Buy Deebo Samuel/George Kittle
The 49ers relied heavily on their star running back Christian McCaffrey, who had an explosive day on the ground and through the air.
McCaffrey showcased his versatility by rushing for 106 yards on 20 carries and scoring three rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, he added 71 receiving yards and a touchdown on 8 targets.
CMC did it ALL.
Elijah Mitchell is already hurt. Jordan Mason was RB2 with 3 carries for 10 yards.
Quarterback Brock Purdy had a fantastic outing, completing 20 of 21 passes for 283 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. His favorite target was Brandon Aiyuk, who recorded an impressive 148 receiving yards on 6 targets. 129 air yards (79%).
Aiyuk might be my favorite 49ers to be invested in for the rest of the season. Over his three healthy games he owns a 27% target share and league-high 52% air yards share. Whenever San Fran is going downfield, it’s going to Aiyuk.
Deebo Samuel…no catches or targets. Came into the game banged up. And when one 49ers is hurt/limited all the others FEAST. Well, in this case, just two. George Kittle. 1 for 9 despite running a route on all but one of Purdy’s dropbacks.
Woof. Just no need for Samuel/Kittle. Buy low targets.
They will be needed next week versus Dallas. Samuel still played 87% of the snaps with an elite 87% routes run rate.
Los Angeles Chargers
Drop Gerald Everett, Hold Quentin Johnston, Buy Keenan Allen
Justin Herbert threw for 167 yards and a touchdown, including an explosive 51-yard pass to Josh Palmer to seal the deal in the fourth quarter. That was despite Herbert dealing with a hand injury. Baller.
In the rushing department, Herbert showcased his tactical dual-threat ability with 2 rushing touchdowns on 12 carries for 27 yards.
Keenan Allen was Herbert’s top target, hauling in 3 receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown. Although Palmer led the team with 8 targets, finishing with 3 for 77 yards. Again, the final stat line is majorly boosted by the last-minute catch, so Palmer busted for essentially 59 minutes. Keep that in mind…
Palmer led the WRs in snaps (86%) and tied with Allen in routes run (97%). If someone is sour on Allen after a low game, he would be a target on a bye week, especially given the injury surrounding Herbert’s finger injury on his non-throwing hand.
Rookie Quentin Johnston played more (71% route participation) as was expected with Mike Williams out. If you can hold him through the bye week, try to.
The overall lack of passing was not expected, as Joshua Kelley rushed 17 times for 65 yards. Isaiah Spiller rushed 5 for 12 yards. The Chargers are on bye next week, so we can just Austin Ekeler back in the fold. Much needed time to get healthy.
DAL, KC and CHI Weeks 6-8.
Las Vegas Raiders
Buy Jakobi Meyers, Josh Jacobs
The Raiders brought their ground game to the forefront, led by Josh Jacobs and the rushing attack. On the ground, Josh Jacobs was the workhorse (70% snap share), carrying the ball 17 times for 58 yards and finding the end zone once.
Rookie Aidan O’Connell managed the game, throwing for 238 yards but no touchdowns. He relied heavily on his running back, Jacobs, in the passing game. Jacobs was targeted 11 times, catching 8 for 81. The buy-low window has closed…
Overall, the Chargers’ defense was relentless, recording 7 sacks and causing disruption in the Raiders’ passing game.
Davante Adams was O’Connell’s top target, securing 8 receptions for 75 yards on 13 targets despite getting treated for a shoulder injury early on. Jakobi Meyers laid a dud – 2 for 33 on 4 targets. Although he did have a great deep catch called back due to PI. Probably a buy-low with Jimmy Garoppolo back next week. He played 96% of the snaps, running a route on all but two dropbacks.
25% target share in three games this season.
Packers, Patriots, and Bears over the next three games…
Jacobs is going to eat. Still a player I would buy high on.
New York Jets
Buy Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Avoid Tyler Conklin
The plucky Jets gave the Chiefs quite the scare on Sunday night, but they came up just short of a massive upset.
The backfield was hardly used. Breece Hall carried the ball 6 times for 56 yards – a big 43-yard gain – while Dalvin Cook went 5 for 16. Return ace Xavier Gipson chipped in two carries for 13 yards.
Hall also added three catches for 13 yards on four targets wrapping his night up with 44% snap share (26 snaps). Cook settled at just 25%.
The time is now to buy Hall. He is slowing edging out Cook while flashing the explosive upside we saw pre-torn ACL last season. With the Jets showing some signs of life vs KC, there’s a chance that Hall can still be a league-winner in the second half of the season.
The Broncos are the league’s worst defense, where we could finally see Hall go NUCLEAR and remind us all why he was drafted so highly. Just $5.4K on DK.
Garrett Wilson got there on volume – as he must do – with 9 catches for 60 yards on 14 targets (36% target share). He’s a fantasy WR3 with limited upside unless he scores. It’s a testament to Wilson’s abilities as a player that he has yet to bust in any game yet this year despite atrocious QB play.
Helps that he owns a top-5 target share (32%) and a top-10 air yard share (41%). In PPR formats, Wilson has scored a similar number of points to Christian Kirk, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, Gabe Davis and Amari Cooper. Considering he is 100% viewed “worse” than almost all those players, might be worth sniffing around for acquiring him at a “narrative” discount.
The Jets schedule gets much easier after their Week 7 bye week.
Don’t go chasing Tyler Conklin. Only ran a route on 55% of dropbacks. Three-way tight end room between Conklin, C.J. Uzomah and Jeremy Ruckert in Gang Green. No bueno.
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