Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
Fantasy Football Outlook
Najee Harris: Harris is the RB40 in fantasy, but he has posted top-20 fantasy weeks in two of the last three weeks (RB19, RB13). Harris has suffered this season because he is no longer the volume vacuum in Pittsburgh, as he ranks 27th in snap share and 29th in opportunity share. He hasn’t been able to compensate with the reduction in volume despite his per-touch rushing metrics looking great. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks tenth in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacksonville has been a dominant run defense all year. They have allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt while boasting the fifth-best stuff rate. Harris is a touchdown-dependent flex. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3
Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
Fantasy Football Outlook
Najee Harris: Harris is the RB40 in fantasy, but he has posted top-20 fantasy weeks in two of the last three weeks (RB19, RB13). Harris has suffered this season because he is no longer the volume vacuum in Pittsburgh, as he ranks 27th in snap share and 29th in opportunity share. He hasn’t been able to compensate with the reduction in volume despite his per-touch rushing metrics looking great. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks tenth in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacksonville has been a dominant run defense all year. They have allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt while boasting the fifth-best stuff rate. Harris is a touchdown-dependent flex. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3
Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson is the RB29 in fantasy, averaging 15.5 touches and 61.4 total yards per game. Stevenson is 12th in snap share, eighth in weighted opportunities, and 22nd in red zone touches. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 48th in explosive run rate, 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and dead last in yards after contact per attempt. It’s been a dreadful season to be a Stevenson believer. The Dolphins will continue the pain of a subpar season for Stevenson this week. Miami has held backs to the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3
CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is the WR21 in fantasy ranking 14th in open score immediately behind Ja’Marr Chase. Lamb has five red zone targets, but they have all come in the last four games. Lamb has a 21.5% target share, a 28.3% air-yard share, 2.54 YPRR, and a 24.4% first-read share. The way to defeat the Rams’ secondary is via the slot which Lamb can do this week. Los Angeles has given up the second-most receiving yards and the seventh-most receptions to slot receivers. Lamb will run about 68% of his routes against Cobie Durant (65.5% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating). Among 36 qualifying slot corners, Durant has allowed the 13th-highest yards per snap. Week 8 Positional Value: WR1
Josh Downs: Downs leads the team in nearly every wide receiver usage category against man coverage. The Saints have the seventh-highest rate of man coverage this season. New Orleans has also given up the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing slot wide receivers. Downs should continue his hot streak this week. He is the WR34 in fantasy, ranking 12th in red zone targets with top-36 WR finishes in four of his last five games. Downs will run about 83% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (66.1% catch rate and 100.2 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside
