What an interesting week this is setting up to be.
Fantasy football is the ultimate game of strategy because every season has a vast galaxy of variables. How we assess, interpret and act on those variables is critical to our success.
Boy oh boy, Week 5 is chock full o’ variables.
The bye weeks are back to challenge our roster depth and our managerial acumen. Can you win with one hand tied behind your back? Two hands? Two hands and one foot? If you went heavy on Chargers, Browns and Seahawks in your draft, you might be feeling like the Black Knight at the end of the sword fight in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.”
But there are some positive variables, too. Week 5 could bring the return of a pair of stars who spent the first four weeks of the season on injured reserve: Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor. Kupp reportedly practiced with the Rams without limitation on Wednesday. Taylor also practiced in full, though it’s unclear whether he and the Colts have resolved their differences over Taylor’s contractual status. Also back in Week 5 is Lions WR Jameson Williams, whose six game gambling suspension was shortened to four games after a change to the NFL’s gambling policy.
And of course, we have to sift through all of the other variables: matchups, injuries, shifting depth charts, etc.
Buckle up, friends. It’s going to be a wild week.
As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Here are all of my fantasy football rankings, tiers, and player notes for Week 5. Below we dive into a few notable players.
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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook
So … how should we handle Jonathan Taylor in his first game back? My best guess is that the Colts don’t overwork JT, who might not be in “hitting shape,” and that we’ll see something close to a 50/50 split between Taylor and Zack Moss, who has performed well in Taylor’s absence. But Moss isn’t on the Taylor’s level, and if JT looks good right away, the Colts might not be overly judicious with his usage. The matchup vs. Tennessee this week is daunting. The Titans have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards and just 3.1 yards per carry to running backs. But every time Colts QB Anthony Richardson puts the ball in Taylor’s breadbasket, opposing linebackers will have to be certain that Richardson is actually handing the ball off rather than using play-action or keeping the ball and running himself. That defensive uncertainty could spike Taylor’s rushing efficiency. When QB Robert Griffin III was a rookie in 2012, the running threat he posed was a big reason Alfred Morris ran for 1,613 yards and 13 touchdowns that year. Alfred Morris was hamburger; Jonathan Taylor is steak. I’m ranking Taylor RB25 this week even with the workload uncertainty and the bad matchup. Moss checks in at RB36.
I have Miles Sanders ranked RB27 this week and worry that it’s too optimistic a ranking. Sanders has been dealing with a groin injury and will be facing a Lions run defense that has become fearsome. Detroit has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points and second-fewest rushing yards to running backs. Part of it is that the Lions have been putting opponents in negative game scripts, so they’ve faced the second-fewest rushing attempts by RBs this year. But Detroit is giving up only 2.9 yards per carry to RBs. The Lions are 10-point favorites against the Panthers, so the odds of Carolina getting a run-friendly game script aren’t great.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
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