What an interesting week this is setting up to be.

Fantasy football is the ultimate game of strategy because every season has a vast galaxy of variables. How we assess, interpret and act on those variables is critical to our success.

Boy oh boy, Week 5 is chock full o’ variables.

The bye weeks are back to challenge our roster depth and our managerial acumen. Can you win with one hand tied behind your back? Two hands? Two hands and one foot? If you went heavy on Chargers, Browns and Seahawks in your draft, you might be feeling like the Black Knight at the end of the sword fight in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.”

But there are some positive variables, too. Week 5 could bring the return of a pair of stars who spent the first four weeks of the season on injured reserve: Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor. Kupp reportedly practiced with the Rams without limitation on Wednesday. Taylor also practiced in full, though it’s unclear whether he and the Colts have resolved their differences over Taylor’s contractual status. Also back in Week 5 is Lions WR Jameson Williams, whose six game gambling suspension was shortened to four games after a change to the NFL’s gambling policy.

And of course, we have to sift through all of the other variables: matchups, injuries, shifting depth charts, etc.

Buckle up, friends. It’s going to be a wild week.

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Here are all of my fantasy football rankings, tiers, and player notes for Week 5. Below we dive into a few notable players.

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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook

Joe Burrow continues to pose a painful weekly dilemma to his investors. Burrow’s calf injury has obviously been hindering him, but we know that a healthy Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the game. The question is: When will Burrow be fully healthy, or even mostly healthy? Burrow is currently QB31 in fantasy scoring, trailing Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder, among others. Burrow is averaging 182 passing yards a game and has thrown two TD passes. There are some Burrow stakeholders who need to get a “show me” game from Burrow before they’ll consider reinserting him into their lineups, but I have Burrow ranked QB10 for Week 5. It’s a tough week for quarterbacks. There are four teams on bye, and a lot of quarterback either have major offensive line issues or are dealing with difficult matchups. Burrow has a relatively soft matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass and has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. I can’t guarantee that we’ll finally get a good fantasy performance from Burrow this week, but I’m cautiously optimistic.

Last season, in Brock Purdy‘s first six starts (including the 49ers’ playoff win over Seattle), he didn’t face a defense that ranked better than 13th in DVOA against the pass. He averaged 238.3 passing yards in those six games and threw multiple TD passes in all of them. Then, Purdy ran into a very good Dallas pass defense in the playoffs and had 214 passing yards and zero touchdowns. Here’s where the four teams Purdy has faced this season rank in DVOA against the pass: 13th, 21st, 29th, 30th. Now he’s preparing to face the Cowboys, whose pass defense is No. 1 in DVOA (although the loss of CB Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL is problematic for the Cowboys). I’m not suggesting that Purdy is a mediocre quarterback who’s benefitted from soft matchups, but we have yet to see him have a good game in a difficult matchup. I have Purdy ranked QB15 this week.

It’s amazing how well Texans rookie C.J. Stroud has played this season, especially in light of all the offensive line injuries Houston has dealt with. There’s potential good news on that front: Starting tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard, who both missed Week 4, have been practicing this week. I have Stroud ranked QB15 this week in a tricky matchup against a much-improved Falcons pass defense that’s yielding 5.6 yards per pass attempt.

Even with Daniel Jones likely to be getting RB Saquon Barkley back from a high-ankle sprain this week, and even with a potential shootout setup against the high-scoring Dolphins, I wouldn’t feel good about starting Jones this week when his offensive line is in such a sorry state. The Seahawks sacked Jones 10 times last week. Jones has taken 22 sacks in four games and has thrown four interceptions. He’s QB24 in fantasy scoring.

-Pat Fitzmaurice

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