Fantasy Football Outlook: Jerome Ford, Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce, Kareem Hunt

Hello and welcome to the Week 7 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Running Back Usage

With the Nick Chubb injury further in the rearview mirror, we have a clearer view of how the Browns’ backfield is shaking out in his absence. At this point, it seems like it’s down to a two-man backfield with Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt sharing the workload. With totals of 13, 15, and 19 opportunities, Ford looks like the lead guy in the backfield. His snap share dipped just below 50% for the first time since the Chubb injury, which coincided with a season-high 37% snap share and 15 opportunities for Hunt. The most surprising thing, and what makes me more bullish on Ford, is that he had back-to-back games with a routes run rate over 50% prior to the bye. That, too, evened out in the Week 6 matchup against San Francisco with Ford running just one more route than Hunt. Still, as the incumbent backup heading into the season, I give the slight edge to Ford for the rest of the season, but it’s clear that Hunt is going to limit his ceiling.
- Action: hold both Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt
I previously stated that no New York Jets player could be started (confidently) while Zach Wilson was the quarterback, but Breece Hall is proving me wrong. This past week, Hall ran a route on a season-high 59% of the team’s dropbacks while playing on 62% of the team’s snaps (most for any Jets running back in a single game). Hall also has seven and six HVTs in the past two games after totaling just five HVTs in the first four weeks of the season (Hall also has five of the seven green zone touches for the Jets this season). With Dalvin Cook demoted to a backup role (look at recent snap counts/carries), he’s nothing more than a low-value handcuff. Michael Carter looks like he’s playing a bit more on passing downs, but he has run a route on more than 40% of dropbacks just once this season (Week 5). Once the Jets return from their Week 7 bye, Hall can be confidently started as a high-end RB2.
- Action: buy Breece Hall
The Houston Texans have struggled to run the ball this year, with their -0.18 rushing EPA per play ranking 6th-worst in the league. While that doesn’t always translate to poor fantasy performances, it most certainly has been the case for Dameon Pierce. So far this season, Pierce has just one game with more than a dozen Half PPR fantasy points, with his season-high being a pedestrian 13.4 points. This isn’t for a lack of workload, though — Pierce has recorded at least 13 opportunities in every game this season and his 18.2 opportunities per game ranks 18th among running backs. He’s also averaging a solid, yet not extraordinary, three HVTs per game this season. Another ceiling-limiting factor is Devin Singletary‘s increased usage, as he saw a season-high mark in opportunities (14), snap share (55%), and routes per dropback (50%). Singletary has also looked the (slightly) more explosive back, averaging a full yard per carry more than Pierce. I’m bullish enough in this offense that I’m still holding onto Pierce (but benching him) and adding Singletary in case this usage trend continues.
- Action: bench Dameon Pierce, add Devin Singletary